That's an interesting idea. what would be really strange would be if the handover of HK happened earlier, like during the Cold War. (say late 70s)
What role would the Northern Ireland Chinese play in the Troubles?
Or what if, feeling virulently anti-communist and betrayed by the crown, they move to Rhodesia as capitalist/democratic refugees? How would this effect the Bush War?
This POD might be deserving of it's own thread...
Another thought just crossed my mind...
Assuming Rhodesia accepts these Chinese refugees from Hong Kong, what would they do with the 400,000 (going off what Lusitania said) from Macau?
400,000 anti-communist, lusophone refugees need a place to go. Just east of Rhodesia, the Portuguese-speaking country of Mozambique is in a civil war.
It would make perfect sense to admit the Macau refugees and use them to win the Mozambique Civil War, then resettle them there to establish an allied government.
The CIO (Rhodesian CIA) was already sponsoring RENAMO, the anticommunists, in Mozambique. A victory on this front would provide them with easy, dependable access to the ocean, solving part of the embargo problem.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RENAMO
Rhodesia could even unify with post-war Mozambique as a bilingual country like Canada (or trilingual with all the Chinese). They could form a confederation like they tried to do in the 60s.
Honestly maybe a cession in the late 70s is better POD than a war in the 90s
Given what Joao said earlier:
Well, since Portugal had originally offered Macau back to China in the early 70s only to asked to hold the handover until the issue with Hong Kong was solved, I really don't see this happening...
,it seems like Portugal was tired of the colony game at this point, but I'd be interested to get his perspective on what they'd do in this situation involving Mozambique.
Also, at this point in time, Brazil is under a right-wing, anti-marxist dictatorship. Might they send volunteers to Mozambique? I don't know much about the lusosphere, do y'all have the same sort of camaraderie that former British colonies do?
One last note: suppose the Brazilians help RENAMO, and RENAMO wins. Once the military dictatorship in Brazil ends in 1985, would some of its members/supporters move to Mozambique? Could we see Jair Bolsonaro becoming president of Mozambique in the 2000s?