I also think the plo could use the "we must fight the friends of israel" as a way of justifying their involvement but what i really want to know is the aftermath will it be the same or different
WI: Uganda-Kenya War
- Thread starter Mort the Reaper
- Start date
David Flin
Gone Fishin'
Tanzania won handily OTL. Kenya has a larger and what had been estimated as being a better trained and better equipped army.
I think we can assume Kenya would win without too much difficulty.
That will result in a major blow to Amin's hold on power, and I suspect the outcome will be not too different, although the way of getting to that outcome might be.
The big question, in my mind, is who does Kenya want running Uganda post Amin?
I think we can assume Kenya would win without too much difficulty.
That will result in a major blow to Amin's hold on power, and I suspect the outcome will be not too different, although the way of getting to that outcome might be.
The big question, in my mind, is who does Kenya want running Uganda post Amin?
David Flin
Gone Fishin'
Don't know for certain, but when he was deposed in 1985, he first fled to Kenya. Which implies that he had fair relations with them, but that's by no means certain, and says little about his relations with them in 1979.
Avoiding Operation Bonanza in 1983, started by Obote, would be a Good Thing (estimates are that up to half a million people were killed during this attempt to "defuse regional tensions").
Depending on when in 1978 this happens Somalia will either be in the process of being routed from Ogaden by a combined Ethiopian-Cuban force or have already been defeated by them. So it seems unlikely that Somalia will decide to jump in with Uganda.
France will also be engaged in a conflict with Libya in Chad in 1978, so Kenya in 1978 will likely be able to count on at least tacit support from France if Libya gets involved on the side of Uganda since Kenya was generally more pro-western than Tanzania had been so relations with France would have already started off better.
So a 1978 Uganda-Kenya war could see Kenya being backed by the UK, France, Israel and the US while Uganda gets backed by Libya. However Kenya would likely be fighting without actual allies (and likely wouldn't need them for the fighting) but I would not be surprised with the UK/US/France/Israel providing money, intelligence and perhaps some equipment and ammo (and maybe just maybe France, the UK or Israel providing the odd military asset or two like a few fighters to protect Nairobi or some transport planes)
France will also be engaged in a conflict with Libya in Chad in 1978, so Kenya in 1978 will likely be able to count on at least tacit support from France if Libya gets involved on the side of Uganda since Kenya was generally more pro-western than Tanzania had been so relations with France would have already started off better.
So a 1978 Uganda-Kenya war could see Kenya being backed by the UK, France, Israel and the US while Uganda gets backed by Libya. However Kenya would likely be fighting without actual allies (and likely wouldn't need them for the fighting) but I would not be surprised with the UK/US/France/Israel providing money, intelligence and perhaps some equipment and ammo (and maybe just maybe France, the UK or Israel providing the odd military asset or two like a few fighters to protect Nairobi or some transport planes)
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Nick P
Donor
I can see the UK sending a few plane loads of spare parts for Hunters and Strikemasters, plus ammo and bombs for them.
Some Hunters might suddenly leave the RAF (training squadrons 63, 79 & 234) and appear over Nairobi with freshly painted black, red and green roundels.
They didn't have any bombers or recon aircraft but Canberras would have served well out there (like the RAF pair that were being sent on loan to Chile in 1982 before the pols got cold feet).
Anyone listening on the radio might hear a few *very British* accents in Kenyan marked aircraft or out in the remote bush on long range patrol. Should anyone ask these are obviously Kenyans who went to the right schools
.What, you might ask, does the UK get in return? I'd point at the upcoming purchase of Vickers MBTs and BAe Hawks and the possibility that the orders get increased.
A very posh school to maybe if the accent are quite snobby but you know i do wonder what will be the uk goverment,media and public upon hearing that the uk is supplying kenya against ugandaAnyone listening on the radio might hear a few *very British* accents in Kenyan marked aircraft or out in the remote bush on long range patrol. Should anyone ask these are obviously Kenyans who went to the right schools
You know reading up on operatipn bonanza and the uganda bush war in general turns out obote is a great friend to kim il sung north korea he event troops and sign a deal with them which reminded me of mugabe actions in thpost rhodesia zimbabwe
David Flin
Gone Fishin'
Uganda and Amin was not popular in Britain, either with the Government, the media, or the public. The expulsion of the Ugandan Asians left deep scars in the PR, and Amin's increasingly idiosyncratic behaviour was not endearing himself to British policy makers.
By contrast, Kenya had reasonably good relations with Britain.
I rather suspect the response of the British media and public would be to regard supplying Kenya against Uganda as a Good Thing.
Nick P
Donor
This is Idi Amin. The dictator who declared himself to be the Last King of Scotland, the Conqueror of the British Empire. He's got 3 wives. He seized power in a coup and buys weapons from the Soviet Union. He has repeatedly slaughtered his enemies. His soldiers shot a 75 year old woman in her hospital bed as revenge for the Entebbe Raid.
It won't be at all difficult to portray him as a mad general who Africa would be better off without.
By comparison Kenya is a stable nation that is friendly to the UK. It has a democratically elected President who opposes Communism. Kenya is where good British tea and coffee comes from, it's where you go on safari, Born Free was filmed there, even the Queen had a holiday there.
Yes true amin isnt very popular anywhere really beside places like libya (and certainly the public wont mind another brutal dictator getting ousted) and i do wonder will this affect the 1979 election or will thatcher still rose to power
David Flin
Gone Fishin'
It won't affect the British election one jot.
A war in Africa in which British forces aren't involved, at a time when domestic issues and the economy are front and centre? I doubt it would be higher than item 4 on the news, if that.
Yeah, while I'm sure a lot of Brits would be happy at Amin's removal from power, I don't think most would really be invested in the conflict.
Actually, I just thought of something else: what if Amin was captured or killed in this war?
David Flin
Gone Fishin'
I don't know enough about the regional politics of the period to be able to have an intelligent opinion on it.
Tanzania was out on the left wing, chummy with the PRC, repressing all sorts of civic and ethnic groups, supporting socialist groups in other countries etc. So them being attacked by a mad cannibal dictator was A-OK.