WI: Uganda-Kenya War

Mort the Reaper

In October 1978, war broke out between Uganda and Tanzania. While the exact circumstances of what happened are still unclear, the outbreak of a shooting conflict wasn't exactly a surprise. Not only did Uganda have territorial claims to the Kagera Salient, which was under Tanzanian control, but relations between the two countries had been deteriorating for some time. Tanzanian president Julius Nyerere had granted asylum to Milton Obote, who Ugandan strongman Idi Amin overthrew to take power, and allowed Ugandan exiles to form anti-Amin guerilla units.

But there was another country Uganda had very poor relations with at the time: Kenya. The Kenyan government had given logistical support to the Israeli raid on Uganda's Entebbe International Airport, and in retaliation, over 200 Kenyans living in Uganda were murdered on Amin's orders. Amin is also believed to have ordered the 1978 assassination of Kenyan Minister of Agriculture Bruce McKenzie.

What if the situation had erupted into a Uganda-Kenya War?
 

Monk78

do you have a military comparison between kenya and uganda ?

Can we make it more interesting? The somalis stab kenya in the back and attack them while they are busy against AMin
 

Mort the Reaper

Monk78 said:
do you have a military comparison between kenya and uganda ?

Can we make it more interesting? The somalis stab kenya in the back and attack them while they are busy against AMin
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Did the British have bases in Kenya at the time? I know they do now, but I'm not sure if they were there in the late 1970s.
 

Gannt the chartist

Mort the Reaper said:
Did the British have bases in Kenya at the time? I know they do now, but I'm not sure if they were there in the late 1970s.
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Yes, During the Kenyatta years there was implicit British military support - as in troops - mainly to prevent a coup or mutiny but it would be pretty obvious to Amin that that a war with Kenya is likely to involve British support at least at the command and support level and probably Israeli support btw.

When the Kenyan Air force bombs things, who knew they had Jaguars, stuff starts to go bad for Idi
 

Monk78

Gannt the chartist said:
Yes, During the Kenyatta years there was implicit British military support - as in troops - mainly to prevent a coup or mutiny but it would be pretty obvious to Amin that that a war with Kenya is likely to involve British support at least at the command and support level and probably Israeli support btw.

When the Kenyan Air force bombs things, who knew they had Jaguars, stuff starts to go bad for Idi
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I really wish Javelins and sea vixens were more popular with african airforces
 

Mort the Reaper

Gillan1220 said:
Kenya would probably emerge the victor as it has a more powerful military and will be likely backed by the UK.
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Not to mention discipline and professionalism among the Ugandan armed forces had plummeted to extremely low levels, and the many of the soldiers had grown more accustomed to murdering innocent people than actual combat.
 

brooklyn99

Banned
How do you suppose a war with Kenya would compare with the OTL one against Tanzania? For instance, what was the quality of Kenya's military compared to Tanzania's?
 

Nick P

Donor
Questerr said:
We’d get to see the Vickers MBT in serious combat, so that would be interesting.
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Unlikely as they weren't in Kenyan service until 1979. They were only ordered in early 1978.

Monk78 said:
I really wish Javelins and sea vixens were more popular with African airforces
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Would look cool. We'll just have to make do with Kenya really had; Hunters, F-5s and Strikemasters to go against the Ugandan Mig-21 fleet.
 

Spiegel

Gillan1220 said:
@Spiegel Looks like this was the scenario you mentioned about a war between Uganda and Kenya
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ah Danke that would been interesting. yeah if the US got involved since USS Ranger and it's escorts stationed on the coast of Kenya would provide Air Support for the Kenyans.
 
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Rfl23

I wonder what will the response from amin ally like the plo and libya regarding nairobi decision to go to war with uganda
 

stodge

I wonder if Kenya would rapidly find itself with allies in both Rwanda and Tanzania, both of whom also suffered from the machinations of Idi Amin.

It's 125 miles from Busia to Kampala so not insurmountable for Kenyan forces.

Whether we escalate an existing incident from OTL, or create a new casus belli, Kenyan forces cross the border from the east while large numbers of Ugandan forces are tied down by Rwandan and Tanzanian forces.
 
David Flin

David Flin

Gone Fishin'
Rfl23 said:
I wonder what will the response from amin ally like the plo and libya regarding nairobi decision to go to war with uganda
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OTL, The PLO and Libya received fair support from Uganda, and willingly provided pretty much the only competent forces on the Ugandan side for the war with Tanzania.

OTL, Kenya had fairly good relations with Israel (to the extent of providing logistical support for the Entebbe raid in 1976). Idi Amin had ordered the assassination of Bruce McKenzie, a Kenyan government official largely responsible for the support provided for the raid. In addition, a few years after the Uganda-Tanzania war, Kenya expelled several Libyan diplomats, and the basis that Libya was "a sponsor of state terrorism".

So, on balance, I reckon that the aid given by Libya and the PLO in OTL to Uganda will also be given ITTL.
 

Spiegel

if Libya and PLO would help Anmin then so does the Americans help Kenya and Britain would follow suit while US had sent 4 Forrestal Class Aircraft Carriers along with Forrest-Sherman Class Destroyers Mitscher Class Destroyers and Farragut Class Destroyers along with 5 Tarawa Class Amphibious Assault Ship with US Marine Corps would help Kenya while the US Army been joined in by flying C130 Hercules and C-5 Galaxy Transport Planes Ferrying Troops Tanks and Artillery to fight against a joint Uganda Libyan forces.
 
David Flin

David Flin

Gone Fishin'
Libya and the PLO helped Uganda against Tanzania. America and Britain raised not a finger there.

It would need to be shown why Kenya was supported when Tanzania wasn't. Note that this is in the immediate aftermath of Vietnam, and the public appetite for involvement was very low.

Plus, of course, Kenya's army was considered considerably more potent than Tanzania's at the time.
 
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