WI: U.S. doesn't join World War One.

Redcoat

Banned
What it says on the tin. Many a thread has discussed what would happen if America stayed neutral and its effect on the war. But I'm not asking how the war would be different. Assuming that the Allies win, how would America's standing on the world stage be different? How would America be different socially?
 
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What it says on the tin. Many a thread has discussed what would happen if America stayed neutral and its effect on the war. But I'm not asking how the war would be different. Assuming that the Allies win, how would America's standing on the world stage be different? How would America be different socially?
If you're assuming an Entente win, then they'd either have to do so by 1917 or the US continues to throw good money after bad to keep them going without actually doing the fighting. Don't know how you plan on getting there.
 
If you're assuming an Entente win, then they'd either have to do so by 1917 or the US continues to throw good money after bad to keep them going without actually doing the fighting. Don't know how you plan on getting there.
MG Smedley Butler in WAR IS A RACKET wrote something to the effect is that the only reason we entered the war was that French and British bankers and industrialists came over and let the US businessmen and bankers know that if we did not get in the war, these US businessmen and bankers would lose the funds they had invested/loaned. MG Butler noted that the US spent at least 20 times that amount and 116,000 death to recoup that money. To be noted is that Oliver "Daddy" Warbucks was originally an unsympathetic war profiteer as his name augurs.
 
Unlike the other people, I will go along with an "entente win" even though without the US the chances of an entente win would be drastically less. One thing is for sure, the US would continue be more isolationist in policy, some specifics I predict (note these predictions are only for what happens up until the 1930's):
-the French and British will be somewhat resentful of the US for not entering the war OR
-the French and British will be desperate for US funds to rebuild, if the entente managed to win ww1 without the US, no doubt about it, you would see ww2 scale destruction all across Europe.
-Due to this, the US would stand as the major exporting power, heavily boosting our economy, and giving the US an enormous amount of job markets, especially because at the time, the only industrialized nations were in Europe, other than the US.
-For the 1910's and 1920's I believe that once the government becomes more and more leaning republican as it normally did in the 1920's Laissez Faire capitalism will force US interests overseas, as all of their major clients, Europe, will need the US to interact with them to supply Europe.
-Life in the US would be basically the same, specifically in the 1910's and 1920's, except this period of "greatness" would start almost immediately after ww1 instead of in the 1920's.
-The USSR would gain territories much faster as all of their neighbors, except china and Japan are incredibly exhausted and weakened. With jobs leaving those countries, and much of Europe in horrible condition, Communism and Socialism will become much more favorable to the people, there would be more Communist uprisings across the continent, and the USSR would be larger/have more influence.
-Nothing would change in east Asia, China, Japan, and SE asia, everything would literally be the same, the depression would come, japan would war china, then war everyone, then the US and Russia take out Japan, Asia becomes like cold war Asia.
-The depression MIGHT be slightly worse in the US as now the US would be exporting everything to Europe, that would heavily increase over-production, and over production was a key factor to why the depression happened.
I can give later predictions if you want, if you need me to go more in depth with these predictions I've given, just ask.
 

Redcoat

Banned
I can give later predictions if you want, if you need me to go more in depth with these predictions I've given, just ask.

Yeah I was wondering if there would be a World War 2. Wilson was IIRC was less bloodthirsty then the others so I'd like to see how Versailles would turn out, or if the Nazis rise.
 
Yeah I was wondering if there would be a World War 2. Wilson was IIRC was less bloodthirsty then the others so I'd like to see how Versailles would turn out, or if the Nazis rise.
Alright, let me see, so I already mentioned how basically nothing changes in Asia, so that part's already done
Predictions as to what happens over the course of the depression:
-Because of the massive increase in US over-production during this period, the depression is worse, specifically in the earlier years under Herbert Hoover, however, because the US would have already been in the top 2 or even THE leading world power at the time, I'd like to say these two factors cancel out and the US economy in terms of how it stands against the rest of the world would be slightly better than what it was in OTL during the 30's and 40's.
-Even though the US may have given aid to the Brits and French, much like ww2, the Marshall Plan of OTL did not prevent decolonization, as even with US aid, the "mother countries" still would not have enough built up funds to sustain colonies, for simplicity's sake, I cannot say in what order nations become decolonized, but I can predict the first nations that gain independence will arise in the 1930's, especially because you now have the great depression AND absolutely devastated homeland nations.
-Nazism was literally National Socialism, and as other forms of Communism and Socialism become more popular more easily, Hitler would honestly have a harder time uniting all of the "big government/ authoritarian" parties under Nazism, in OTL Hitler had to deal with the constant putting down of his ideas by the Weimar Republic, I am almost certain that the Weimar Republic would collapse even sooner.
-More specific prediction: If there was an Entente win, due to the fact that europe was obliterated, it is likely that the Entente would take even more supplies and land from Germany out of desperation, we might see a WW2 Germany having modern Germany's borders.
-It is likely that Hitler would gain power sooner than 1933, his chances of gaining power in the 1920's are much higher, however even if he didn't the Depression would literally be the last nail in the coffin which would give him a great deal of support.
-So let's say Hitler gets into office either during the 5th (1928) or 6th (1930) election, in OTL he gained power in the 8th election (1932), the fact that Hitler would get around 2-4 extra years to carry out Domestic policy leads to him bullying Poland, and Seizing Austria and Czechoslovakia, and kicking out the Jews around about the same time, if not about a year or half after. For example: we might see Hitler Unify Germany with Austria in 1937 rather than 1936, because Hitler now has a much bigger mountain to climb in terms of rebuilding the German economy.
-Even after the depression, the US economy remains number one, but their gap with Europe is significantly decreased
-Mussolini and Facist Italy still happen, because Italy never got involved in ww1, or at least there would be a much less chance of the entente winning if they did,
-Because Europe was devastated, the Polish rebellion of 1920 would be heavily ineffective, as the destruction to mainland Russia would be significantly less
-USSR border predictions (Europe) : The Bolsheviks still lose Finland, as they gave it up without a fight, however they may have influence over it in this timeline, The Baltics and eastern Poland are already seized in the 1920's, by the 1930's the USSR most likely has influence over much of the communist uprisings in east Europe, specifically, Romania, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Western Poland
-Hitler, desperately wanting to take back Prussia, would invade what remains of Poland without Russian aid
-France and Britain are MUCH more weary of war, therefore it may take until when Hitler eats Benelux and Denmark for both France and Britain to declare war
-Soviet Red Army troops have much higher Morale as Communism have become much more popular thanks to the destruction of ww1 and the great depression, these instances are called "the start of the collapse of Capitalism" as identified by Karl Marx in his Communist Manifesto
-Finland is much more of a position to beat back the Russians in the winter war, as virtually none of the damage of ww1 occurred in Scandinavia, regardless of whether the Finnish are more aggressive, or the Russians start the Winter war, The Russians will lose much, much more in this version, they may not even gain the land they took from Finland in OTL.
-Because of the winter war, Hitler still opens the eastern front, Mussolini has an easier time fighting the greeks, and yugoslavians, as South East Europe would have been by far the most devastated from ww1
-Japan still joins axis
-Europe becomes Axis Controlled, Japan does Pearl Harbor, US join the war, WW2 ends the same way, but things start to heavily diverge from here.
 
Now as for Versaillies, like I said, they take much more from Germany than in OTL, and war crimes etc etc is still roughly the same.
The Cold war will be much more in Soviet favor, as Communist influence would skyrocket even more due to the combination of this ww1, the great depression, and this alt ww2
 

Redcoat

Banned
Now as for Versaillies, like I said, they take much more from Germany than in OTL, and war crimes etc etc is still roughly the same.
The Cold war will be much more in Soviet favor, as Communist influence would skyrocket even more due to the combination of this ww1, the great depression, and this alt ww2
So what are the odds here that America loses this?
 
Well ultimately, If I had to bring up the cold war, It would go something like this:
-The more weary British and French from ww2, not only joining the war later, would make smaller advances in Europe than the Soviets
-The Soviet War machine is in full swing, especially because of the momentum gained in the 20's and 30's
-Hitler's army is pushed back before Moscow, I'd say around about Minsk (Capital of Belarus) is the farthest Hitler would get, Therefore the Soviets would expand deeper into Europe,
-The new "Iron Curtain" would be drawn along the Rhine, about 3/4ths of Germany would be Russian controlled, Denmark would be Russian Occupied, and the Soviets would get as far as northern Holland
-Stalin knew in OTL that ww2 was the perfect opportunity to seize land and increase influence, Stalin, especially with this much more powerful USSR, would seize all of Austria, Greece, and then begin doing actions similar to the soviet occupation of Iran in the middle east. Iran in OTL served as a nation for the western powers to transport supplies to the southern USSR, the USSR would probably occupy a much larger amount of Iran, around 70% of the country, while the British occupy the southern 30% to transport supplies, as they would begin their occupation of southern Iran much later.
-Due to French and British Colonies being in the Fertile Crescent, Stalin would also most likely move Soviet occupation through East Turkey, and Western (european parts of) Turkey, obviously hoping to occupy Constantinople (Istanbul)
-With this momentum, Stalin would also attempt to restart a war with the Finnish, this time the Finnish would be weary, more than the Soviets, Stalin would give up the lives of another 1 million or so men to turn Finland into a Soviet puppet or a member of the USSR
-Stalin's Troops would not only secure north Korea and Manchuria, but also South Korea would be taken by the USSR in this timeline, also a few more parts of china
-Personally, for the cold war, I prefer to show maps, I think I might just do that,
The first map shown is what the USSR's Occupation/ Influence around the world would be in 1945 in this timeline, the second map shown is the original USSR influence/occupation from normal 1945
upload_2017-11-19_14-43-11.png

upload_2017-11-19_14-43-52.png
 
Please note, Africa would be much more prone and open to communism in this cold war because of the fact that decolonization would have already begun much earlier than in the normal timeline.
 
I will throw it out there since it does not appear to have been mentioned. Under the assumption that WW2 would occur and the U.S.A. would be involved; there is no cadre of senior military officers who did gain experience on the fields in WW1. This would have a significant impact on U.S.A.'s abilities and would likely lead to an increase in miltary debacles during the first couple of years and even possibly extend the war in both Europe and Asia.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
What it says on the tin. Many a thread has discussed what would happen if America stayed neutral and its effect on the war. But I'm not asking how the war would be different. Assuming that the Allies win, how would America's standing on the world stage be different? How would America be different socially?

Depends on what additional POD happens to allow the Entente to win. There is very near a 0.0% chance the Entente can win with roughly the same result in November 1918 without the USA entering the war roughly on time.
 

Redcoat

Banned
Depends on what additional POD happens to allow the Entente to win. There is very near a 0.0% chance the Entente can win with roughly the same result in November 1918 without the USA entering the war roughly on time.
I just said they would win, not how.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I just said they would win, not how.

Well the POD changes your answer. One easy one. Most POD butterfly away the USSR, and this will change the world view of the USA substantially. USA not entering the war will prevent the Japan/USA blow up over Yap Island. etc, etc.
 
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