WI two Canadian provinces wished to secede from Canada and join the U.S. ?

Unlike in OTL, Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont are Canadian provinces, and have never been part of the U.S.

In this timeline, New Hampshire and Maine are looking at the possibility of secending from Canada and becoming part of the U.S.

Vermont prefers to remain as a Canadian province, and French is a large part of their culture, but they are more anglicized than bordering Quebec.

History went slightly differently - New Hampshire never gained media attention for the presidential primary in 1952, and I'm trying to work out the rest of the history of how it became part of Canada. It was not one of the Thirteen Colonies in the revolt against the British in the American Revolution.

I'm still trying to work out the AH for this scenario and how things would have played out - so finding the POD is the hard part. U.S. and Canadian history is an interesting and new area for me and not something I've studied much in the 15 years since I left high school.

I've tried this scenario for the sake of doing something completely different - U.S. history on this part of the site often covers Presidential or military issues, but here I'm looking at it relating to politics issues and how this affects things for the average John/Jane Doe.

They currently have a small population of Americans, some of them being descendants of draft dodgers from the Vietnam War (draft dodging being an offence in the U.S. but not Canada). Americans from bordering Massachusetts and New York have fled to these provinces in the 1970s, and also in more recent times for Americans who have deep political dissident attitudes (using Wikipedia discussion as a source).

Here, the timeline is around August 2014, and it is a major news story on CNN, CNBC, Fox & Friends etc. and even the BBC (BBC News 24). In this timeline, August 2014 is an important date.

What would be the ramifications and effects on U.S.-Canada relations if this were to happen?

This is very clearly AH, but I'm looking at it as an interesting WI scenario?

I know about the Gadsden Purchase, which involved purchase of territory from Mexico, but here I've written about a very different situation.

Like some other threads, this is a collaborative thread and you can help me with it - experts on U.S. history are welcomed (and rather than vetoing changes, like this discussion, I'll go along with most things as long as they make sense.).

What sort of primary and secondary sources on this could we expect? (for those who like to RP their AH here).
 
If New Hampshire and Maine never joined the American Revolution and never shared in the experiences of the United States, why would they want to secede from Canada to join the United States?
 
I don't see on this idea any sense. If NH and Maine didn't join to revolution and became part of Canada, why they would be intrested join to USA? NH and Maine would be even culturally quiet different from OTL NH and Maine.
 
I don't see on this idea any sense. If NH and Maine didn't join to revolution and became part of Canada, why they would be intrested join to USA? NH and Maine would be even culturally quiet different from OTL NH and Maine.

You would need Quebec to secede. That would cut them off from the rest of Canada.

Note that Maine was part of Massachusetts until 1820. They broke it off to keep the free and slave states equal in number.
 
You would need Quebec to secede. That would cut them off from the rest of Canada.

Note that Maine was part of Massachusetts until 1820. They broke it off to keep the free and slave states equal in number.

But that would not be enough. I'm from Prince Edward Island, and while there was certainly a lot of fear that Québec secession would leave us stranded from the rest of the country, it did not follow that a significant number of people wanted to join the United States. I suppose it would have been an option if things got very bad, but it was far from being a first option.

It certainly was possible that Maine, at least, might become British. There was discussion of making the territory into a Loyalist homeland of New Ireland. With this history, Maine possibly becoming the preeminent Loyalist colony in British North America, it is difficult to see how Maine could transition into Ameriphilia. That arguably one of the most substantial waves of immigration into northern new England OTL was that of Canadians, both English and French by language, makes it more problematic.

It's not even clear to me that, in a timeline where northern New England has been part of Canada, this larger Atlantic seaboard would necessarily be isolated. All that separates Vermont from eastern Ontario are the Adirondacks and thinly-populated northernmost New York. Who is to say that, in a TL where northern New England stayed British, this portion of New York, too, might not stay British?
 

SsgtC

Banned
I can see some issues that you'll have to work through to make this viable. First, what we now call Maine was originally part of the Massachusetts Bay Colony. I don't see Maine breaking off of Mass without a significant, early POD. Second, New Hampshire was the FIRST of the original 13 States to formally establish a government independent from the UK. So again, you need a massive, early POD too keep NH British. Vermont could possibly remain British as at one time while an independent country they did inquire about going Quebec. But the territory that today makes up Vermont was included as a territory of the United States in the Treaty of Paris. And Vermont was the first new state to join the Union after Independence (being admitted as a state in 1791). To get Vermont to stay British, you need a strong Loyalist sentiment, far stronger than IOTL, the US States of NY and NH giving up their claims to the land and a more hard-nosed stance by the British during peace negotiations as the OTL Treaty of Paris was extremely generous to the US in order to keep the US out of the French sphere of influence and gain them as a valuable trading partner of the British.
 
I can see some issues that you'll have to work through to make this viable. First, what we now call Maine was originally part of the Massachusetts Bay Colony. I don't see Maine breaking off of Mass without a significant, early POD. Second, New Hampshire was the FIRST of the original 13 States to formally establish a government independent from the UK. So again, you need a massive, early POD too keep NH British. Vermont could possibly remain British as at one time while an independent country they did inquire about going Quebec. But the territory that today makes up Vermont was included as a territory of the United States in the Treaty of Paris. And Vermont was the first new state to join the Union after Independence (being admitted as a state in 1791). To get Vermont to stay British, you need a strong Loyalist sentiment, far stronger than IOTL, the US States of NY and NH giving up their claims to the land and a more hard-nosed stance by the British during peace negotiations as the OTL Treaty of Paris was extremely generous to the US in order to keep the US out of the French sphere of influence and gain them as a valuable trading partner of the British.

There are PODs for that--apparently Maine had been considered for a Loyalist homeland before then-Nova Scotia. Vermont and New Hampshire, agreed, would definitely be different.

In this case, with such a radical change to settlement patterns in early British Canada, history will be changed radically. If the Loyalists end up getting resettled in a still-British northern New England, will there be any Loyalist settlement in what is now Ontario, on the far side of Lake Ontario? Or will the Loyalists all go to much more accessible New England? If they do, then what is now Ontario may well stay part of Québec.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Here's the thing though, for Massachusetts to agree to give up Maine would require either a huge concession from the British elsewhere or for the US to do significantly worse in the Revolution, but for the British to be willing to end the war and grant Independence anyway.

For Vermont and New Hampshire, I don't really see any plausible POD that keeps them British. Maybe if they get a maybe influx of Loyalist settlers, and get them yesterday before the start of the Revolution.

There are PODs for that--apparently Maine had been considered for a Loyalist homeland before then-Nova Scotia. Vermont and New Hampshire, agreed, would definitely be different.

In this case, with such a radical change to settlement patterns in early British Canada, history will be changed radically. If the Loyalists end up getting resettled in a still-British northern New England, will there be any Loyalist settlement in what is now Ontario, on the far side of Lake Ontario? Or will the Loyalists all go to much more accessible New England? If they do, then what is now Ontario may well stay part of Québec.
 
Here's the thing though, for Massachusetts to agree to give up Maine would require either a huge concession from the British elsewhere or for the US to do significantly worse in the Revolution, but for the British to be willing to end the war and grant Independence anyway.

For Vermont and New Hampshire, I don't really see any plausible POD that keeps them British. Maybe if they get a maybe influx of Loyalist settlers, and get them yesterday before the start of the Revolution.

Granted. A northern New England that stayed British implies different things, not least of which is a more hostile Anglo-American relationship.

This is all secondary to the latter POD, imagining that polities which had been British then Canadian for two centuries would necessarily want to secede. Perhaps it is a ailing of imagination on my part, but I do not see this.
 

SsgtC

Banned
I don't either. I think that this scenario needs too many PODs. You need 3 US states to stay British, you need far worse US-UK relations, you either need to butterfly away the War of 1812 or drastically change US war aims, you need a significantly worse internal situation in Canada and you need to somehow make the US appealing to areas that would have a strong British tradition and that had previously rejected the United States. This scenario would be more believable if we were talking about the Maritimes wanting to join the US. And then only following Quebec seceeding and forming an independent nation.

Granted. A northern New England that stayed British implies different things, not least of which is a more hostile Anglo-American relationship.

This is all secondary to the latter POD, imagining that polities which had been British then Canadian for two centuries would necessarily want to secede. Perhaps it is a ailing of imagination on my part, but I do not see this.
 
I don't either. I think that this scenario needs too many PODs. You need 3 US states to stay British, you need far worse US-UK relations, you either need to butterfly away the War of 1812 or drastically change US war aims, you need a significantly worse internal situation in Canada and you need to somehow make the US appealing to areas that would have a strong British tradition and that had previously rejected the United States. This scenario would be more believable if we were talking about the Maritimes wanting to join the US. And then only following Quebec seceeding and forming an independent nation.

Granted. Even in this case, though, I am really struggling to see why the Maritimes would want to join. Even in the event that there was a terribly hostile Québec secession, it does not follow that the Maritimes' only option would be to join the United States. Why couldn't we constitute an exclave of Canada? We are bigger than Kaliningrad.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Oh I'm not saying it's the only option. Just that a scenario built on that POD would be far more believable plausible.

Granted. Even in this case, though, I am really struggling to see why the Maritimes would want to join. Even in the event that there was a terribly hostile Québec secession, it does not follow that the Maritimes' only option would be to join the United States. Why couldn't we constitute an exclave of Canada? We are bigger than Kaliningrad.
 
Oh I'm not saying it's the only option. Just that a scenario built on that POD would be far more believable plausible.

Not really. Granted that the Maritimes have had traditionally close ties with New England, that's not at all the same thing as wanting to become Americans. Maritimers just don't identify as Americans, or as potential Americans. The region has been very deeply integrated into Canada for generations, notwithstanding past ties. For the past century, for instance, all the volume of out-migration has been directed westwards deeper into Canada, the old movement south having dried up.

Why would Maritimers want to break the links with Canada and join a country we have not been part of?
 

SsgtC

Banned
Again, I'm not saying that this is ever likely to happen IRL. But if you want to build a timeline where a part of Canada wants to seceed, this is about the only way I see it happening. MAYBE Yukon?

Not really. Granted that the Maritimes have had traditionally close ties with New England, that's not at all the same thing as wanting to become Americans. Maritimers just don't identify as Americans, or as potential Americans. The region has been very deeply integrated into Canada for generations, notwithstanding past ties. For the past century, for instance, all the volume of out-migration has been directed westwards deeper into Canada, the old movement south having dried up.

Why would Maritimers want to break the links with Canada and join a country we have not been part of?
 
If I understand you correctly, then you're saying that the secession from Canada takes place in 2014?

In that event, GOP will throw all of its energy at stopping an annexation movement. Those two provinces would have to be admitted as states and doing so would create 4 new Democratic US Senators and numerous members of the House of Representatives.
 

I am not sure about that. Alberta has periodically seen a strong separatist movement, most notably in the early 1980s after a very unpopular federal energy policy that hurt Alberta's oil-based economy. There has been nothing like that in the Maritimes, if only because the region is so dependent on the rest of Canada.
 
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