It's not terribly implausible. Say it is regarded as a corporate welfare approach pushed through Congress by Hollywood lobbyists and/or the cinema industry. The idea is to keep TV a local medioum, sort of radio with pictures.
It would certainly have a major impact. Much more live content is likely - hey, if you pay a concert or sports event $30,000 to broadcast its content, it doesn't *matter* that the show cost millions to set up, right? Theatre plays, cheap series formats. Local flavour would pay better (cheap to produce, and not outcompeted by high-end common-denominator TV). Documentaries would get better billing without TV movies.
And then there are legal questions. If I set up a 'movie production' company and make a mid-budget movie for cinema release (say, on four screens in North Dakota) and then lease broadcasting rights to TV stations nationwide, is that legal? What about 'cinema series'?