WI: Turkish Missile Crisis

[MerryPrankster]

In OTL, the United States had Jupiter-class nuclear missiles in Turkey, which helped prompt the Soviets to put nuclear missiles in Cuba. This provoked the Cuban Missile Crisis.

WI instead of OTL's CMC, the Soviets pitched a similar fit about the Jupiter missiles like the U.S. did with the Cuban ones? The war scare is in the Middle East, not 90 miles off Florida.

(Inspired by Sam R's comment in the Hungary thread in which he renames the CMC the Turkish Missile Crisis and accuses the West of trying to pick a nuclear war with the Soviets.)

 

[vultan]

Well, Americans probably get less hysterical. Theoretically, we'd know it's a big deal... but then again, it's not happening 90 miles off our shores.

 

[Polish Eagle]

In OTL, the United States had Jupiter-class nuclear missiles in Turkey, which helped prompt the Soviets to put nuclear missiles in Cuba. This provoked the Cuban Missile Crisis.

WI instead of OTL's CMC, the Soviets pitched a similar fit about the Jupiter missiles like the U.S. did with the Cuban ones? The war scare is in the Middle East, not 90 miles off Florida.

(Inspired by Sam R's comment in the Hungary thread in which he renames the CMC the Turkish Missile Crisis and accuses the West of trying to pick a nuclear war with the Soviets.)

The Jupiters were obsolescent by 1960--frankly, the design is just a really big V-2. The Americans were scheduling their dismantlement as the CMC began, but didn't want to lose face by doing it while the Soviets were demanding it.

A Turkish missile crisis might lead to Turkey starting to drift away from NATO toward an independent path--frankly, I don't think they would want to paint a giant "NUKE HERE" sign on themselves.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Well, Americans probably get less hysterical. Theoretically, we'd know it's a big deal... but then again, it's not happening 90 miles off our shores.

In this situation, though, it'd be the Soviets in the role of the OTL Americans--they'd be the ones getting upset.

 

[Dan Reilly The Great]

When would the crisis take place? OTL, the cuban missile crisis got kicked off the second the Soviets tried to place missiles in Cuba, so does this happen when the Jupiters get shipped to Turkey?

 

[Sam R.]

I would suggest for this scenario that the mirror image occurs almost identically. Post 1953 have the "anti-party bloc" take an aggressive, yet within sphere of influence move. Have the US counter this move with a rational and reasonable counter within MAD doctrine. To my mind Greece would be superior to Turkey, given that Greece would have the appreciable fear of a resurgent communist movement or communist intervention and that Greece was a "young" state (contra, revolutionary Cuba).

Have the USSR react with hysteria, breaking international law (forcing the strait?); and see a backdown via direct communication.

Bonus points if the rational and anti-war Ike talks a hysteric ??Bulganin (There's no real analogue for the quasi-rollback position of JFK in the then cabinet that I can name off the top of my head)—down from a pro-war position.

The problem is finding a pro-war and aggressive Presidium member, particularly given that the "anti-party" bloc and the eventual Khrushchev bloc weren't terrific at aggressive or proactive foreign policy.

yours,
Sam R.

 

[Tovarich]

Wouldn't geography prevent a direct analogy here?
No way for the USSR to blockade Turkey like the US did to a small island.

 

[RamscoopRaider]

The Soviets would not try it or even seriously threaten it, Turkey is a lot stronger than Cuba, more importantly the USSR is a lot weaker than the USA at this time and they know it

 

[Geredis]

What if the crisis comes about when (after somehow butterflying the CMC away), the Turkish variant flares up when the US decides to upgrade Jupiter in Turkey with Pershings or similar. I can understand Russia accepting that short-range, token, deterrent in the region simply to give that whole looming threat of Western aggression in Soviet propaganda and the like even more credibility.

The moment the Jupiters are actually upgraded however, they become not just that symbolic, relatively short range, threat with an obsolete design but a medium-range and credible problem that simply has to be dealt with. Cue problems in Turkey somewhere between '62 and '65.