WI: Turkish Civil War During The Cold War

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by RandomWriterGuy, Jan 11, 2018.

  1. Incanian By the Glory of Inti the Incas will never die.

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    As a Turk, you first need to name who this civil war would be against? Is it Kurds vs Turks? Is it Communists vs Capitalists? Is Ottomanist Supporters? or Kemalist supporters? Once you name the type of civil war, we can predict what I'd be like.
     
  2. RandomWriterGuy Bernie Sanders Hindsight 2020

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    Unless the US gives Greece them. And sure maybe biological weapons aren’t the best idea.

    Conquering western Anatolia may sound easier without as much people. Though I wonder what the extra terrain would do.

    I’d say four-way. The Greeks picking up the pieces and the Kurds fighting for independence are two of the parties. Otherwise it would be communists VS anti-communists especially if the military/government is too repressive and the Communists gain support in Turkey.
     
  3. Incanian By the Glory of Inti the Incas will never die.

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    Wait one last thing we need is a Point of Divergence. Is this taking place in the 1940s,1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, we need to know when because each decade has different technology and different politics.
     
  4. RandomWriterGuy Bernie Sanders Hindsight 2020

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    During the Cold War, most likely the 1950s and beyond. I’ll let the rest up to you since you’re a much greater expert in this topic than me obviously.
     
  5. SealTheRealDeal Well-Known Member

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    there kinda was/is
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdish–Turkish_conflict_(1978–present)
    Pour some gas on this and it could balloon considerably.
     
  6. ar-pharazon Banned

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    How likely is the event of the army fragmenting into various factions? Nationalist, ottomanism, kemalist, etc...

    Also how strong was political Islam during this period and would it have an effect on the civil war?

    How would Iraq react to it? Bite off territory in eastern turkey that's mostly Kurdish anyway? Or just fuel the fire? Or maintain neutrality?
     
  7. Incanian By the Glory of Inti the Incas will never die.

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    Okay so Let's say that the Cyprus Crisis escalates into full-scale war. Turkey and Greece are now fighting a war in 1974. Turkey has a leg up on Greece. Larger population, and closer to Cyprus. Turkey instantly mobilizes all local troops to Cyprus to force the Greeks off the Island. Soon both countries are moving troops. Greek Islands near Mainland Anatolia are taken through week-long seiges. Greece starts making more defences to the Greek islands. Turkey sends the majority of their troops to take Cyprus. The Turks quickly Overrun Cyprus and is under full military control.

    Now Comes Foreign Intervention. During the Crisis in our timeline, the U.S put an embargo on Turkish arms sales. So now that its' escalated, America embargos all imports, and exports from Turkey. America openly supports Greece in this conflict. The Soviet Union seizing on this event openly supports and blockades Greece imports and Exports.

    Now that Turkey seized Cyprus, Greece and America support a Kurdish revolution in Kurdish Turkish areas. Kurds from all over the Middle East, From Iran to Armenia come to fight for a free Kurdistan. And to make American-Turkish relations even worse, America recognizes the Armenian genocide.

    So now we got Kurdistan vs Turkey vs Greece. How can we make it worse? Well after America recognizes the Armenian genocide, The Soviets start sending troops to fight Kurdish rebels, and restore the land to Turkey, while Turkey deals with the Greeks.

    Now how can we make this worse? Well, we could get Mehmed Ertuğrul Efendi son of Mehmed VI last crowned Sultan of the Ottoman Empire, seeing a chance to gain prestige goes to Istanbul, and forms a rebellion in the city to reform the religious Ottoman empire.

    Soooooo there

    We got

    Greece vs Turkey vs Neo-Ottoman empire in Istanbul vs Kurdish rebels vs the Soviet Union vs America.

    Now go crazy.
     
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  8. RandomWriterGuy Bernie Sanders Hindsight 2020

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    That’s one way of it.

    Sounds pretty good I’m not gonna lie.

    However, the question of American nukes in Turkey arises. I suspect that before the war got worse the US decides to withdraw them as well as any of its military property and troops from the country before shit really started to hit the fan. And I highly doubt the US needs to prod the Kurds. The Kurds can do that all by themselves. And Syria, Iraq, and Iran won’t be happy.

    I also envision Maoist rebels and other communists taking the opportunity to develop insurrections. Eventually the Soviets start supporting them. So basically a war of US and Greece VS Turkey, Turkey VS Kurds, Kurds VS Syria, Iraq, and Iran, and the Turkish monarchists, Communists, and establishment against each other. Yep this will turn into a shitshow real fast. Basically a more secular and more bloated version of the Syrian Civil War.

    This would make for a good TL.
     
  9. Incanian By the Glory of Inti the Incas will never die.

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    Well, actually the Nukes were removed from Turkey After the Cuban missile crisis in the 60s. There was a conflict between Turkey and Greece over Cyprus in the 60s, but the Invasion of Cyprus happened in the 70s, so a war in the 60s probably won't happen. So there are no nukes in this scenario, sorry to disappoint.

    Also about the Kurds, yeah, you could have the Turkish conflict become a "Middle Eastern World war" Spanning over to Iran, Iraq, Syria, and maybe maybe you could get Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Afganistan involved. America could support Kurdish rebels only in Turkey, but it'd backfire, and then spill over across the middle east.
     
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  10. Foadar Swampman

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    Greece could also occupy Imbros and Tenedos, two aegean islands with a historically greek population that remained under turkish rule.

    But that is truly the most the greeks could hold aside from Cyprus.
     
  11. Lascaris Well-Known Member

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    And short version, Greece would not. You can easily see the dialog in Athens

    "Lets go starve and kill three million people!"
    "Why?"
    "Err... for the greater glory of Greece and because they did the same 50 years ago"
    "Are you batshit crazy? What are we nazis? This guy is dangerous and deluded. Put him to the brig now."
     
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  12. anotherlurker Well-Known Member

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    If the Greeks move towards Istanbul the Turks, seing how they've essentially been betrayed by Nato, could ask the USSR to "secure" the city and the straits for them agasint expansionistic fascist imperialist, afterwards they could come to an agreement which leaves the rest of Nato kicking itself in the ass for letting it come to this.
     
  13. Lascaris Well-Known Member

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    How likely it would be for the troubles in 1975-80 that led to Evren's coup in OTL to go out of hand, if for example the coup is botched? After all you had over 5,000 killed in the troubles prior to the coup mostly by the Grey Wolves but to a lesser degree also by leftist groups like Devrimci Yol striking back. Plus Islamists in conjunction with the Grey wolves killing opponents like the Corum massacre against Alevis in 1980.

    How you botch the coup? MIT did inform Ecevit who tried to take action against the plotters. Too bad the general he put to the task was, unknown to him, one of the 5 chief plotters. Add if you will a botched invasion in Cyprus (to stick to Turkish sources, like general Demirel''s memoirs this came to close for comfort in the first night of the landings) to bring internal tensions even higher in the years prior to the coup...
     
  14. RandomWriterGuy Bernie Sanders Hindsight 2020

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    Well right now there are 60-70 nukes stationed in that country. Is there a reason for that?

    I don’t know how Afghanistan can get involved but I could see Israel exploiting it. Maybe using it as an excuse to take more territory from Syria I suppose. And yeah I envision every one of Turkey’s neighbors being involved and the spillover to be an epic onslaught. Maybe this causes an earlier Iranian revolution or one where the Soviets get involved.

    You really do underestimate how much the government doesn’t like Turkey, especially in regards to Cyprus.

    There’s also the possibility of a coup in Turkey since there was once in 1975 as well as numerous factions that can bring Turkey into a clusterfuck civil war.
     
  15. Lascaris Well-Known Member

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    Sure. I'm just a Greek and lived my whole life since birth there. What should I know about our Turkish policy or the average Greek's perceptions of Turkey?
     
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  16. RandomWriterGuy Bernie Sanders Hindsight 2020

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    The 1970s were a different environment. And from my experience with the US’s War on Terror, the Greek junta will definitely exploit nationalism as a tool for support.
     
  17. Gokbay Well-Known Member apparently, huh...

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    I am a Turk and my father said that in late sixties/early seventies it was like there would be a revolution tomorrow from the perspective of the people every day (or atleast the students). It that times there were a lot of tension between Turkish leftist and Nationalists too. Also the goverments were generally unstable coalition goverments.
     
  18. Koprulu Mustafa Pasha Sadrazam of the Roman Empire

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    The situation in the 70s is not what you would call reasonable in Turkey. It was so bad that it justified the coup in 1980 by General Evren. Let's say Evrens coup does not go as planned and it results in protests due to the behavior of the Military. It would be only a matter of time for armed conflicts to break out from the Communists in the cities when the Army tries to put them down.

    But such armed conflict would be over in a matter of time. The right wing groups in Turkey, even though also persecuted by the Military after the coup, would still join the side of the military.

    When it comes to protecting your nation, our Turkish populations is sort off really proud of it and would "die to defend it". It is what I've observed from the Turks I know personally. My mother told me about the situation of the late 70s and early 80s how it was and how the people were. She lived there in those times. I guess I can take the information of what she knows.

    What I can tell you is, a Kurdish uprising would not be the main group of the war. Merely a sideshow like in Syria up to 2014. The armed conflict started in 1984 and up to this day there still is no sort of uprising like Ba'athist Iraq.
     
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  19. Koprulu Mustafa Pasha Sadrazam of the Roman Empire

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    They can scream, they can yell but that is it. Any invasion would not even reach Gallipoli. It would sound biased for me being Turkish but there is truth in it. If you wan't to unite the population behind the government/junta of the country you attack you get something like the Iran-Iraq war. Even 50/60 years after the last war with the Greeks the people did not really like Greece.

    It can even turn in a horror scenario with the Turkish military occupying Western Thrace. And if there is no US intervention there is no way for them to get the Turkish Army out of the region.

    But Greece knows better and they would not attack. The idea of getting regions populated with millions of Turks is not worth of risking the loss of the war.
     
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  20. RandomWriterGuy Bernie Sanders Hindsight 2020

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    Unless the Soviets intervene of course and give them aid.

    I definitely would bet the US would be glad to support them if it meant that the Communist Turks would suffer. Probably only if Istanbul and the surrounding territories were held by Communists.