WI: Turkey without ( big part of ) Kurdistan

So, what if, during the aftermath of the WW1, Turkey was left without big part of current Turkish Kurdistan: say without provinces Mardin, Diyarbakir, Batman, Siirt, Bitles, Sirnak, Van and Hakkari.
Now, what would happen with the territory? Maybe independent Kurdish state, maybe part of Iraq or Syria?

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What would be the consequences?
 
So, what if, during the aftermath of the WW1, Turkey was left without big part of current Turkish Kurdistan: say without provinces Mardin, Diyarbakir, Batman, Siirt, Bitles, Sirnak, Van and Hakkari.
Now, what would happen with the territory? Maybe independent Kurdish state, maybe part of Iraq or Syria?

Image:

JqVKsyg


https://ibb.co/JqVKsyg

What would be the consequences?

It would be a part of Iraq.

Turkey won't be worse off per se. But it will have another border with a potentially hostile population which may break from Iraq.
 
It would be a part of Iraq.

Turkey won't be worse off per se. But it will have another border with a potentially hostile population which may break from Iraq.

Or, maybe even western parts could be part of Syria.

But, that would still left a big number of Kurds within Turkey, in border provinces, somewhere minority, somewhere majority.

These provinces are amongh the least developed parts of Turkey. On the other hand, that would have taken about 10% of population of Turkey ( say 7 millions ).

On the other hand, if part of Iraq, you would have aboput 13+ million of Kurds in Iraq, a sizable number- 1/3 of population. Much greater influence of Kurds in Iraq, better position?
 
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It would be a part of Iraq.

Turkey won't be worse off per se. But it will have another border with a potentially hostile population which may break from Iraq.

After 1980 the Kurdish war cost Turkey roughly 14% of GDP (link below). Kurdish areas historically have had roughly half the average per capita income of the rest of the country... or less. So all other things being equal, Turkish GDP would had been down by 5-6% due to the initial loss of Kurdistan, but then grow after the 1980s by an additional 14% compared to OTL. End result Turkey in the present day ends with ~7.1-8.3% higher GDP and 82% the population. Which means ~30-32% increase in PC GDP. Soo I'm willing to argue that an independent Kurdistan in the 1920s in the long term would had been a net gain for Turkey at least in economic terms.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/09/29/economic-cost-pkk-conflict-turkey/
 
After 1980 the Kurdish war cost Turkey roughly 14% of GDP (link below). Kurdish areas historically have had roughly half the average per capita income of the rest of the country... or less. So all other things being equal, Turkish GDP would had been down by 5-6% due to the initial loss of Kurdistan, but then grow after the 1980s by an additional 14% compared to OTL. End result Turkey in the present day ends with ~7.1-8.3% higher GDP and 82% the population. Which means ~30-32% increase in PC GDP. Soo I'm willing to argue that an independent Kurdistan in the 1920s in the long term would had been a net gain for Turkey at least in economic terms.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/09/29/economic-cost-pkk-conflict-turkey/

The issues is the borders. Where would it be drawn. The Turkish Government would want as South as the Van Lake. The Kurds would wany as North as Kars and Erzurum.
 
After 1980 the Kurdish war cost Turkey roughly 14% of GDP (link below). Kurdish areas historically have had roughly half the average per capita income of the rest of the country... or less. So all other things being equal, Turkish GDP would had been down by 5-6% due to the initial loss of Kurdistan, but then grow after the 1980s by an additional 14% compared to OTL. End result Turkey in the present day ends with ~7.1-8.3% higher GDP and 82% the population. Which means ~30-32% increase in PC GDP. Soo I'm willing to argue that an independent Kurdistan in the 1920s in the long term would had been a net gain for Turkey at least in economic terms.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/09/29/economic-cost-pkk-conflict-turkey/

Yeah, makes sense.
But, as Mustafa Pasha said, the issue are the borders, and that would be hard to solve.
 
The issues is the borders. Where would it be drawn. The Turkish Government would want as South as the Van Lake. The Kurds would wany as North as Kars and Erzurum.

Sure but there is not much that can be done over that. So let's stick to the proposed Sevres Kurdistan. Neither side will be particularly happy with it but by the same token I don't see it changing if a Kurdish state comes to being in the early 1920s.
 
Actually, I think that having Turkish Kurdistan out of Turkey, best chances are having it split between Iraq and Syria. With a British protectorate as second option.
 
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