WI: Turkey occupies Aegean Islands in late 1945

Between the Turkish entry in February and the wars end in early May, there was a narrow window during which the Turks could have managed to get boots on the ground in at least some of the Aegean Islands still occupied by the Germans sinced the botched British attempt to aid the Italian forces who had switched sides in '44.

Even though it's quite likely, even if they get lucky in not getting repelled at the beaches, that there's not enough time to actually defeat the German garrisons defending them. However, they don't have to - they merely have to get the foot in the door; once Hitler kicks the bucket and Germany surrenders, those forces will surrender as well.

So, let's say they do so. Now what? Can they leverage keeping them, by arguing the Italians didn't uphold the 1912 treaty with the Ottomans that stipulated they were to eventually return the islands?
 
post1945 we can see greek-turkish rivalry turn really ugly esp since both of them are vital for the southern flank of NATO
 
In OTL Greece and Turkey had to be admitted to NATO simultaneously so that neither would veto the other's entry. A huge spat over the Aegean islands could force NATO to pick a side over who they want in the alliance and who would be left out for possibly the entire Cold War.
 
Between the Turkish entry in February and the wars end in early May, there was a narrow window during which the Turks could have managed to get boots on the ground in at least some of the Aegean Islands still occupied by the Germans sinced the botched British attempt to aid the Italian forces who had switched sides in '44.

Even though it's quite likely, even if they get lucky in not getting repelled at the beaches, that there's not enough time to actually defeat the German garrisons defending them. However, they don't have to - they merely have to get the foot in the door; once Hitler kicks the bucket and Germany surrenders, those forces will surrender as well.

So, let's say they do so. Now what? Can they leverage keeping them, by arguing the Italians didn't uphold the 1912 treaty with the Ottomans that stipulated they were to eventually return the islands?
That had been overturned by both Sevres and Lausanne. There is a number of factors at play here. So our scenario is that the Turks attack on their own the Dodecanese islands and the Germans who where resisting Greek and British attacks against the islands surrender to the rather weak forces the Turks can land instead. For good measure the Turks did the operation on their own without Greek and British involvement. (the Greek navy alone in 1945 is way stronger than the Turkish, with the single possible exception of Yavuz) Then for good measure when the inevitable argument of "ok you freed the islands lets have a referendum on their future, now" comes, Turkey refuses outright because if they accept they lose it so overwhelmingly it isn't even fun.

It doesn't look very well for Turkey to put it bluntly with the Western public or for that matter western governments. Starts with opportunism, the accusations are already in the air after all, moves to rumours/accusations of collusion with the Germans and from there straight to accusations of violating the UN charter on the right of self determination. Now before we even get to the eventual creation of NATO there is the matter of the straits crisis in 1946. This could play in one of the following ways

1. The Soviets still press on but the West makes help conditional on leaving the Dodecanese. If Turkey fails to budge it is left to the Soviets tender mercies. If it budges which is more likely it has seriously affected Turkish opinion of the west. Abolition of the single-party state after 1949 was largely due to Western pressure. Also the British argument in favour of admitting Turkey only in the Baghdad pact and not NATO likely gets way more support, ironically one of the factors against this OTL was Greek support for Turkish entry, quite possibly the British have their way. When the equivalent of the 1960 coup come it's quite likely to turn into Nasserism, with Alparslan Turkes playing Turkish Nasser.

2. The Soviets see an opportunity and the Turks turn to the Soviets once more. Stalin backs the Turkish claim on the Dodecanese and does not make any territorial claims on Turkey, if Turkey is a Soviet ally why bother? This is in effect a return to 1920-1935 or so were the Soviets outright backed Turkey against Greece in 1920-22 and then had very friendly relations with them all the way up to the run to WW2. Turkey doesn't turn communist. It instead remains a single party state under Inonu, ostensibly unaligned but for every practical purpose in the Soviet camp. A role model for the Arab nationalists here...

3. The West shallows their pride/dislike and back Turkey over the straits even though it refused to budge on the Dodecanese. Things originally remain close to OTL... but Washington and London will very much remember. Less economic aid to Turkey TTL likely and just like in 1 there is a good chance Western aligned Turkey is left outside NATO.

And in all three scenarios you have most likely seen Cyprus uniting with Greece, in 1 and particularly 3 this could involve an exchange of populations between the Greeks of Rhodes and Turkish-Cypriots, a scenario whose plausibility the US looked into even in OTL, here if Rhodes is already Turkish it seems much more practical. Also in all three scenarios you are likely seeing Turkey out of NATO and increasingly drifting out of the Western orbit, in 2 it did not enter the Western orbit in the first place...
 
That had been overturned by both Sevres and So our scenario is that the Turks attack on their own the Dodecanese islands and the Germans who where resisting Greek and British attacks against the islands surrender to the rather weak forces the Turks can land instead.
The idea is that the Germans would fail to dislodge the Turkish beachheads, and then surrender shortly afterwards when the overall surrender of German forces takes place.

Great analysys btw.

My gut feeling is that we would end up with #3
 
With the Aegean split between Turkey and Greece it is likely that the Aegean ends up highly militarized compared to OTL with the economy of the region being geared towards servicing the military bases being built there rather than being tourism or fishing oriented.

A Soviet friendly Turkey allowing the USSR to use the straits would only exacerbate this trend because it would be all of NATO in the Aegean then.
 

Osman Aga

Banned
Between the Turkish entry in February and the wars end in early May, there was a narrow window during which the Turks could have managed to get boots on the ground in at least some of the Aegean Islands still occupied by the Germans sinced the botched British attempt to aid the Italian forces who had switched sides in '44.

Even though it's quite likely, even if they get lucky in not getting repelled at the beaches, that there's not enough time to actually defeat the German garrisons defending them. However, they don't have to - they merely have to get the foot in the door; once Hitler kicks the bucket and Germany surrenders, those forces will surrender as well.

So, let's say they do so. Now what? Can they leverage keeping them, by arguing the Italians didn't uphold the 1912 treaty with the Ottomans that stipulated they were to eventually return the islands?
Theoretically speaking yes, they could go for the Italian Dodecanese. But I don't know when the islands were liberated, to say if this is possible at all. I also don't know how the allies will just allow Turkey to annex the Dodecanese. They could do it but there are a lot more ethnic Greeks there who would prefer to join Greece. I guess the allies will only be convinced if Turkish participation was enough to let them have a share.
 

Osman Aga

Banned
How much more ugly? Do you expect Greece to try an invasion of Rhodes?

Greece won't be in position to do so anytime soon. Anytime later the Turkish Military will have better defenses. Consider a USA-USSR style hostility. Weapons pointed against each other but not used because US threats.

If Turkey is willing do more in WW2 then the Allies may look aside.
 

Osman Aga

Banned
In OTL Greece and Turkey had to be admitted to NATO simultaneously so that neither would veto the other's entry. A huge spat over the Aegean islands could force NATO to pick a side over who they want in the alliance and who would be left out for possibly the entire Cold War.
Greece in 1945 is in no position to face Turkey in a potential Aegean War. If the Civil War ends, the Government can still join NATO albeit protest any mistreatment of Greeks in Turkey. The acquisition of Italian Dodecanese won't be a Greek red line to refuse NATO, especially if they border Communists.
 

Osman Aga

Banned
With the Aegean split between Turkey and Greece it is likely that the Aegean ends up highly militarized compared to OTL with the economy of the region being geared towards servicing the military bases being built there rather than being tourism or fishing oriented.

A Soviet friendly Turkey allowing the USSR to use the straits would only exacerbate this trend because it would be all of NATO in the Aegean then.

Soviet friendly Turkey is not out of question if Stalin did not hold claims on Kars.

If both nations end up pro-American we may see the US Navy being more active in the Aegean to make sure who has the last say (Make sure Turkey and Greece don't fight each other).
 
So basically the Turks would likely get to keep them?
In the short term perhaps. But unless the Turkish Republic wants to carry out yet more ethnic cleansing then they're going to have to deal with a majority Greek province under permanent military occupation. Long-term that's not sustainable.
 
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