WI: Turkey leaves northern Cyprus pre-1983?

Ismail

Banned
From 1974-1983 Turkey occupied northern Cyprus. In 1983 the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus was proclaimed. What if Turkey unilaterally withdrew without any sort of negotiations in the 1974-1982 period? What would the ramifications be in both Cyprus and Turkey?
 

Vladimir

Banned
Unless Turkey signs a defense pact or treaty of some sort with Northern Cyprus, the Republic of Cyprus might be tempted to militarily recapture the north. It would face no international repercussions for doing so, as Northern Cyprus is not recognized by anyone but Turkey. The Cypriots might wait a little bit and then, react to a military incident, real or staged, and invade the North, or they might just roll in the second Turkey leaves.
 

rohala

Banned
There is no realistic chance Turkey would abandon the North defenceless. If they intented to leave as an occpation army, they would have made sure to prepare the Turkish Cypriots sufficiently. Due to the geographic proximity of Turkey to Cyprus compared to Greece, the Turkish military is in an advandageous position to react to any sudden development on the island, as it happened in 1974.
Following 1974 and for sveral years after, the Greek Cypriot side did not make serious effort to create an offensive capability. Its equipment was basically the same and only in the late '80s and '90s were modern weapons procured. Still, it is a basically defensively oriented force. In case of a Turkish-Cypriot - Greek-Cypriot conforntation in 1983 the Greek Cypriots would not have a decisive advandage to defeat the Turkish-Cypriots quickly enough before Turkish reinforcements pour in.
 
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