WI: Turkey in the Axis Powers?

Dreadnought

Banned
What would have happened had Turkey joined the Axis Powers (lets say in early 1941)?

Some questions in particular I am interested in are:

  • What could Nazi Germany offer to entice Turkey to join the Axis?
  • Would Turkey be able to secure Syria and Lebanon under Vichy France Control? (or perhaps their own if Nazi Germany offers it to them)
  • Would Turkey be able to capture Palestine and Jordan (and would Turkey assist the Nazi's in killing the Jews of Palestine)?
  • Would Turkey be able to capture Iraq / assist them in breaking away from the UK
  • Could Turkey reach and capture the Suez Canal?
  • What effects would Turkey's involvement in the Middle East, have on the Italian campaign in North Africa?
  • What impact would Turkey have on Operation Barbarossa? and What are some territorial ambitions Turkey would have against the USSR?
  • Will the Allies still successfully be able to invade Iran?
  • Could Turkey's involvement be enough to allow the Axis Powers to win, or at least stalemate the allies (and what would Turkey gain if they were on the winning side)?
  • If the Axis powers lose, what would a post-war Turkey look like (and what territorial losses, if any, would it suffer?)
  • If the Axis powers lose, what would a post-war Middle East look like?
 
  • What could Nazi Germany offer to entice Turkey to join the Axis?


  • IMHO, nothing, just as in the case of Spain. Perhaps Turkey would consider joining with Axis forces occupying all surrounding territories.

    [*]Would Turkey be able to secure Syria and Lebanon under Vichy France Control? (or perhaps their own if Nazi Germany offers it to them)

    For a short time, maybe.

    [*]Would Turkey be able to capture Palestine and Jordan (and would Turkey assist the Nazi's in killing the Jews of Palestine)?

    I think they would not be able to go this far. Though their army is huge on paper, in early 1941 Turkey had 43 divisions, three independent infantry brigades, two and a half divisions of cavalry, as well as two mechanized divisions. However, they were poorly equipped and weapons shipments from Germany, Great Britain and U.S. did little to improve that condition.

    [*]Would Turkey be able to capture Iraq / assist them in breaking away from the UK

    Not even with German help. That is simply outside of logistic envelope.

    [*]Could Turkey reach and capture the Suez Canal?

    They couldn't in WWI, they couldn't in WW2.

    [*]What effects would Turkey's involvement in the Middle East, have on the Italian campaign in North Africa?

    British might do just as they did. Stop at Agheila. And instead of helping Greece, send reinforcements to Syria and Leabanon, to secure their northern flank.

    [*]What impact would Turkey have on Operation Barbarossa? and What are some territorial ambitions Turkey would have against the USSR?

    Absolutely no impact at all. Turkey does not have the capacity to advance on the Caucasus front, Germans cannot hope to supply their units even if they could be sent there at all. I looked up recently and there is a single railroad ending some way from the border. Turkish or combined German Turkish offensive to Caucasus is doomed to fail or at best not get anywhere soon enough. Germans might attempt to waste their paratroops in futile attempt to capture the wells by them, though.

    [*]Will the Allies still successfully be able to invade Iran?

    I do not see why not.

    [*]Could Turkey's involvement be enough to allow the Axis Powers to win, or at least stalemate the allies (and what would Turkey gain if they were on the winning side)?

    Nope. Turkey is not a major power, does not have what it takes to influence events very far outside of their borders. Most I could see is they create a front on the Sirya-Leabanon border.

    [*]If the Axis powers lose, what would a post-war Turkey look like (and what territorial losses, if any, would it suffer?)

    They capitulate sometime in 1944 and end up much like Finland. Only more screwed up. And perhaps Kurds get their communist state.

    [*]If the Axis powers lose, what would a post-war Middle East look like?

Pretty much the same, except Israel would not have a regional ally.

Edit:

If Kurdistan is created and, indeed, turns into Russian client, consequences might be very, very bad. I could even see a WW3 once revolution breaks out in Iran. Iraq would also be probably more dependent on US aid. Middle East in this scenario would be even scarier than its OTL version.
 
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