WI: Tupac Amaru Rebellion Succeeds

[9 Fanged Hummingbird]

In the 1770's Spain found itself involved in another war with Britain, this time over its support for the rebellion in Britain's American colonies. Though their involvement would yield successes the costs of the war grew enough that Spain saw fit to yet again increase taxes throughout their empire in 1778. Always an unpopular move, the natives of its American colonies were already exploited and severely oppressed as it was. Though the encomienda system was officially abolished many natives were pushed into forced labor, and willing or not they generally worked for small wages, and what little wages they did earned were heavily taxed by local governors and extorted by the church. So the news of an increased tax all throughout the Empire was understandably appalling.

Enter José Gabriel Condorcanqui, a member of the native nobility who traced his lineage back to Tupac Amaru, the last Inca ruler to have lived. As a leader of the local native community he had a great sympatyh and understanding of the plight of the Indios in the Viceroyalty of Peru. He used his wealth to help people out as much as he could, but his pleas for help to alleviate the condition of the Empire's citizens fell on deaf ears. And so, inspired by tales of ancient Inca leaders, he took the name of his claimed ancestor for himself and planned a rebellion against the colonial government, ostensibly in the name of the King of Spain against a corrupt leadership in the colonies. Now, despite taking the very Inca name of Tupac Amaru II and being motivated primarily by the plight of native peoples in Peru, this wasn't purely a native rebellion. Tupac gathered the support of other classes of Peruvian society, particularly mestizos but also blacks and even native-born whites lacking the privileges of the Peninsulares. A major motive for the rebels was resentment towards the corrupt local elite, primarily the Spanish-born elite, that had a negative impact on almost all social classes in the Viceroyalty.

However, the bulk of the rebel forces were still composed of natives who had a grudge against the Spanish and this would come to tear apart the rebellion as the lack of discipline in Tupac's army allowed some rebels to viciously slaughter civilians without orders, alienating the creoles and leading many to desertion. Perhaps the death knell for the rebellion though was Tupac's failure to capture Cuzco before the Spanish fully mobilized against him, something his wife urged him to do. With support for the rebels vanishing and the Spanish gaining strength and even local recruits the rebellion was doomed. Tupac Amaru II was eventually tortured, saw his family murdered before his eyes, then torn apart by horses and with over 100,000 dead even Simon Bolivar's war failed to stir much rebellion in the desolation of Peru.

Now enter the ATL proposal. Let's say somehow that Tupac is able to get more of a grip on his army and instill some military discipline and drilling. Perhaps some local militias join him for whatever reason. Now the outrages against the local population that chased non-Indians away from the rebellion don't happen, or aren't as commonplace as to render Spanish propaganda efforts effective. Furthermore, his better disciplined army is able to march on Cuzco before the Spanish can move against him and gives the rebellion a strong base to grow from. As the rebellion grows Tupac Amaru is able to link up with Tupac Katari, an indigenous leader in what is now Bolivia who was inspired by Amaru's rebellion and so gave himself the same name in Aymara and did much the same thing, proclaiming himself a viceroy of Tupac Amaru II. Katari lays siege to La Paz and with Amaru's support is able to take it.

Here's where things get iffy and I might have to start handwaving. From what little I've read of the Tupac Rebellion the guy might've been hinging on some support from the British. Spain is still at war with Britain and assuming he hangs on long enough for Britain to move its focus from the lost colonies it's not impossible to imagine Britain wanting to pay back Spain's interference by doing the same thing to them and giving a little bit of aid to the Peruvian rebels. Which would make this incredibly ironic, Spain's support for a rebellion that started because of taxes leads them to raise taxes that starts a rebellion that gets British support. And it's not impossible that Tupac Amaru heard of the Americans' cause, it was pretty big news at the time and a very radical idea that made waves.

Now, with British support I'm going to suggest that Tupac Amaru and Tupac Katari might end up victorious against Spain, at least in the short run. While the rebellion was ostensibly done in the name of the King (at least on Amaru's part, can't see Katari getting away with claiming to be viceroy to some Inca in Peru and still loyal to the King of Spain) it's unlikely the King will agree and independence is likely the desired result by him and his rebels anyway. So what kind of state would Tupac Amaru II form? A republic like the new union of American states? Or a resurgence of the old Inca monarchy? And what are the repercussions for the Spanish Empire and the rest of the world that are likely to follow?

 

[Keola_Kent]

planned a rebellion against the colonial government, ostensibly in the name of the King of Spain against a corrupt leadership in the colonies.

That's really interesting. Is it possible he would negotiate a peace with Spain accepting his country as a vassal state, protectorate, whatever? That might make it easier for Spain to back off, while giving him the self-rule he wants and setting him on a clear path to full independence.

 

[Roger II]

I think someone's writing a tl on Juan Santos Atalhualpa, so maybe they'd know someting?

 

[GohanLSSJ2]

This more or less will be Book 3 of my TL.

Now, to the idea itself... I love it.

Condorcanqui wasn't entirely selfless in his quest, but he did have the interest of the Natives in mind. He was a more complex man than we give him credit for.

Now, he had indeed trouble keeping his troops in line, so I believe the best way would be early on, making examples of any troublemakers to ensure strict discipline. With that in mind, he could indeed link up with Tupac Katari in the South. But here's the thing. Amaru was a noble who had far more European influence, and even some knowledge of the Enlightenment and a more open mind over race relations, Katari on the other hand, was a hardline traditionalist and revanchist. He rejected all aspects of Spanish culture and language. So while Jose Gabriel may be able to rein his pwople, Katari will be the wild card letting his troops run wild.

Another event of note is the rebellion of the Comuneros in Nueva Granada, lead by impoverished white settlers and people of mixed race. If that rebellion is also more successful, which is likely as the massive indigenous revolt down south might just drain Spanish power, Amaru could also link up with rebels in the Northern portions of South America. On top of that,the many ex-slave communes are valuable allies.

It will all depend how he handles the various rebel factions. With some luck, he can contact the ex-slave communes which can serve as additional soldiers with more resources and knowledge of the land. He'll have the support of the criollos, resentful of the privileges of the peninsulares denies to them, as well as the mestizos and Natives, eager for revenge against Spain. If the movement grown big enough, it can spread all the way into places like Paraguay, for example.

The end result? I can see Tupac radicalizing, from "Praise be the king, down with bad government!" to "We the people of the American continent declare ourselves free from European opression! Viva la Patria Grande!" If Tupac gains independence from Spain, or at least self-governance, I can see a model of a constitutional monarchy being set up, with a government that mixes both Enlightenment and Traditional Andean cultural philosophies for, hopefully, the best of both worlds.

 

[raharris1973]

Or a resurgence of the old Inca monarchy?

I think that while they would adopt some Inca imagery and some manufactured and maybe a few genuine Inca traditions, Tupac Amaru's monarchy and administration is going to be designed at most levels to be more like a Spanish administration.

Another event of note is the rebellion of the Comuneros in Nueva Granada, lead by imampoverished white settlers and people of mixed race. If that rebellion is also more successful, which is likely as the massive indigenous revolt down south might just drain Spanish power, Amaru could also link up with rebels in the Northern portions of South America. On top of that,the many ex-slave communes are valuable allies.

Interesting - maybe this gives us a contemporaneous North American and South American independence, and La Plata remains as a loyalist stronghold, as opposed to OTL where it was the most broadly rebellious part of the continent.

 

[Lenwe]

Interesting - maybe this gives us a contemporaneous North American and South American , and La Plata remains as a loyalist stronghold, as opposed to OTL where it was the most broadly rebellious part of the continent.

If anything La plata Will rebel inmediately, the elite of Buenos Aires have being growing With the help of the english contraband, and a constant feeling of being The unfavorite of The spanish colonies in América. The rebellious Streak of the place if of long date.
And Asuncion also will declare his independence, in fact Paraguay Basically governed itself With little regard of The Cédulas Reales and what Lima or Buenos Aires Say.
The fun thing Is that probably, the Spanish will only left whith Chile as a south american posesión, they have a big Army there el Real Situado, that was Pay from Lima, to mantain a profesional army to Figth The arauco war.

 

[GohanLSSJ2]

I think that while they would adopt some Inca imagery and some manufactured and maybe a few genuine Inca traditions, Tupac Amaru's monarchy and administration is going to be designed at most levels to be more like a Spanish administration.



Interesting - maybe this gives us a contemporaneous North American and South American independence, and La Plata remains as a loyalist stronghold, as opposed to OTL where it was the most broadly rebellious part of the continent.

If anything La plata Will rebel inmediately, the elite of Buenos Aires have being growing With the help of the english contraband, and a constant feeling of being The unfavorite of The spanish colonies in América. The rebellious Streak of the place if of long date.
And Asuncion also will declare his independence, in fact Paraguay Basically governed itself With little regard of The Cédulas Reales and what Lima or Buenos Aires Say.
The fun thing Is that probably, the Spanish will only left whith Chile as a south american posesión, they have a big Army there el Real Situado, that was Pay from Lima, to mantain a profesional army to Figth The arauco war.

Indeed. With this we get North America and South America simultaneously going independent. Add to this a potential earlier Mexican war of independence on the 1780's and the Caribbean set ablaze with slave revolts, and likely Brazil exploding sooner, too and...

 

[markus meecham]

the spanish empire in the americas was held by bubble gum and lots of prayers, pretty much.

 

[Lenwe]

Indeed. With this we get North America and South America simultaneously going independent. Add to this a potential earlier Mexican war of independence on the 1780's and the Caribbean set ablaze with slave revolts, and likely Brazil exploding sooner, too and...

The best parte You give these Countries some 40 years more to get political organized and in a better shape to expand themselves and to take advantages of The French revolution and wars

 

[markus meecham]

someone make this TL because i'm a lazy fuck.

 

[Grouchio]

Wouldn't the Spanish metropolis just send a sizeable professional army to crush a larger-scale rebellion? There are several good reasons why Hidalgo and Morelos failed in Mexico.

 

[EMT]

If the Encomienda system is toppled by a 'native' Quechua state that's sympathetic to the average person, then I think it's likely that land reform will be very, very high on the agenda, as well as racial reconciliation. Others in the thread have done a good job highlighting how any state that emerges from this will lean heavily on the Enlightenment and and Euro/Mestizo influence too. I think there's a high probability that the end result is a system of monarchy based on Enlightened Absolutism which would have a lot of natural synergy with the old Incan administration, considering the focus on public works in Andean civilization. They can't quite return to the status of God Emperor, but claiming the title of Incan Emperor would be very, very high on the political to-do list so as to establish de jure legitimacy and stabilize the realm. And that's likely to be dependent on the Pope so as to make it good and proper.

Returning to the rebellion; Tupac Amaru II marches on Cuzco, captures the city, disciplines his native forces properly to assure Mestizo and Criollo elements of support, then proceeds south to Tupac Katari's forces and manages to hammer out his official subordination to his cause. Katari as mentioned above is a huge wildcard. Does his traditionalism mean that he'll fully prostate himself before Tupac Amaru II? Or does his hardline nativism mean that he and TAII have a falling out? The former is incredibly unlikely IMO, the nativism is far more likely. So what's the best-case scenario? Well, if Katari's rebellion is swallowed into the Incan fold early enough, chances are TAII can sideline him rather easily. Immediately after capturing Cusco in early December and a cautious declaration to the end of the Bourbon Reforms, an end to the tyranny of the Peninsulares, and in the name of the King of Spain, TAII marches south to secure the Altiplano as OTL where he meets up with Katari in person due to Cuzco having fallen early and quickly. Katari accepts TAII as his sovereign and join forces as a clear subordinate in order to capture La Paz together, meanwhile the Spanish are assembling an army in Lima to recapture Cuzco, as Areche no longer needs to break a ragtag siege, he needs to take a quickly fortifying city. As Katari's forces are subsumed into TAII's forces, they too are also ironed out and Katari's nativism harshly cracked down on, and as a result, Katari ultimately sidelined. The vast majority of the forces that joined his army IOTL instead are directly recruited to the banner of TAII. La Paz's criollos are far more amiable to TAII than they were to Katari and as a result, La Paz also falls relatively quickly due to the severe unpopularity of the Bourbon reforms and the Encomienda system's Peninsular favoritism. With control of the Altiplano and the area around Cuzco, the Quechua-Aymara are in full revolt and TAII's army swells to near 100,000 in total. The majority of the army marches north and west to capture Arequipa and Ayacucho with relative ease in anticipation of attacking Lima(including Katari). The continuing stream of volunteers is largely sent northwards, but TAII's governor of La Paz, Diego, is able to take a sizable portion of the latecomers first to reinforce the garrison, later that year in March 1781, an army that marches south taking Oruro and Potosi with ease; Alto Peru's massive native populace fully in support of the rebellion resulting in Spanish towns falling like dominoes, sometimes with the gates wide open for them.

By the end of 1831, almost all of Alto Peru is under loose governance from La Paz as far south as Tucuman and as far west as Calama, while the countryside of La Plata was on fire as Criollo revolts are abound though not at all in support of TAII but rather general anti-Spanish revolt while Buenos Aires proper remained a bastion of Spanish loyalty, strictly due to their recent prosperity being directly dependent on the Bourbon reforms and a continuing stream of Peruvian silver flowing downriver. Alto Peru's eastern provinces being far more criollo and far more distrusting of a native-led revolt, largely remained pro-Spanish and the army of La Paz was mostly dedicated to ensuring the suppression of the eastern but largely empty parts of the country and aiding criollo revoltees in La Plata. Envoys were sent to Asuncion in Paraguay where the province broke into open revolt, long having simmered and only needing but an excuse. The local militia declared alliance(but blatantly, not subservience) with TAII and proceeded to further hamper Spanish attempts to control La Plata. Spanish rule outside of Buenos Aires and Montevideo became nothing but a fiction by the end of 1832. Meanwhile, Paraguayan, La Platan, and Incan diplomatic feelers were sent east from Asuncion into Brazil, where they'd reach Lisbon and later London by the end of 1831 where many of the upper echelons listened on in interest, just as a comunero revolt kicked off in New Granada(that's even more explosive and slightly earlier than OTL considering the greater need for manpower in Lima the Spanish are facing).

Meanwhile in Lima the Spanish are assembling their forces as OTL and there's a large degree of unrest as the Peninsular governing class is near universally mistrustful and alienating the locals while under threat of siege. TAII's successes are stoking more fires and further intriguing the criollos and mestizos, especially those sympathetic to Enlightenment ideology. The Spanish are predictably heavyhanded in response to this, resulting in Lima suffering from constant lowscale insurrection and even some impromptu murders of suspect sympathizers. As a result, Lima is both heavily fortified but also risky to leave without a large garrison. Further hampering Spanish attempts are the results that their heavy hand in Lima is having on the rest of Peru. The more native-heavy provinces are suffering from insurrection and there's even an inspired copycat in the vein of Katari trying to besiege Cajamarca. The key ports of Chimbote, Trujillo, Chiclayo, Callao, and Guayaquil all require large troop commitments to maintain control of the countryside as general insurrection has spread northwards and there's fear in Lima that if they don't attack soon, TAII's rebellion will link up with the one in Cajamarca and spread further north to Ecuador and Colombia. As a result, Spanish forces are heavily concentrated in Lima and they key town of Huancayo, which not only controlled the route to Lima but the passage north to the rest of the Andes. Meanwhile the bulk of TAII's armies are based in Huancavelica and Ayacucho, debating two alternative plans. Force a battle at Huncayo, or march west to the sea and besiege Lima directly from the south. The date was summer 1781.

This is pretty much what a successful early revolt would look like. Capturing Cuzco is critical to inflaming the popular imagination of the rest of Spanish America as to the possibilities of what rebellion could accomplish, and capturing La Paz is essentially equivalent to taking all of Bolivia considering what a native revolt in Bolivia is equivalent to. Long story short, due to the Comunero revolt in New Granada and the Paraguayan/La Platan/La Paz siege of La Plata, Lima is essentially unreinforcable via any means but sea. The Inca push quickly and smash the garrison at Huancayo of several thousand men, splitting the army into two. Half marches north to Cajamarca, the other places Lima under siege. The northern Army captures the majority of northern Peru and places the port cities of the Andes under siege, inciting further revolts in northern Peru and Ecuador all the way to the gates of Quito, with the Spanish pretty much considering everything save Lima and Chile a lost cause. The Inca set up shop at the north at Ambato, just south of Quito but manage to spread their own unique brand of the revolt as far north as Cali. The Comuneros in Bogota are tying down Spanish manpower greatly, and Quito is also under siege by the end of 1831, which after a very bloody battle, falls in November. The army marches north and groups in Quito, while large garrisons are left in Lima, Calama, La Paz, and Guayaquil. The Inca themselves are experiencing the same pains the Spanish faced earlier on with lowscale insurrection from loyalists disrupting supply trains and hampering attempts at governance. TAII's lieutenant, Bastidas, acted as his governor while TAII laid siege to Quito.

It's during this time that his envoys from Britain return with British advisers and diplomats with a surprise; arms and an alliance against Spain. TAII accepts, and the fiction that he was revolting in the name of the king slowly slips away.

Quito falls by June of 1832, but the Comuneros have been all but defeated around Bogota. The countryside is on fire through Colombia and Venezuela. What's left of them south and around Bogota pledges themselves to TAII, and the army marches north once more to Cali. Cali is the site of THE battle of the war, and it's when the Inca's lack of a formal military compared to the Spanish is most apparent. The battle is largely a stalemate, but the Spanish are unable to break the siege. Meanwhile in Mexico...with the vast majority of its garrisons in Colombia, it too joins the rest of its colonies. And with Britain formally at war with Spain, the bad news continues to pile on. At this point, the rebels formally break with Spain and declare the return of the Inca state, though TAII declines to call himself the Sapa Inca outright, instead formally naming his state the Kingdom of the Andes, informally however, the term 'Inca Empire' is flying around and a delegation to the Pope is already sent, though they have little hope of recognition when in rebellion against key Catholic states, Spain and to a lesser extent, France.

With Spain essentially, torn in all directions, the second battle of Cali results in the capture of the city and the siege of Bogota. The Inca have no shortage of volunteers due to Spain's excessive retribution and heavy-handed policies, Bogota eventually falls after a very long siege to the Inca in the Spring of 1783. Spanish control outside of coastal cities is a fiction and a joint Anglo-Incan force manages to capture Cartagena late that year; a later detachment manages to capture Panama just before the end of the war. In the meantime, the Governor of La Paz, the Paraguayan revolutionaries, disgruntled La Platan separatists, and the British have managed to bring Buenos Aires to its knees, placing it under British occupation for the remainder of the war and a declaration of free navigation of the Rio de La Plata agreed upon by all parties. At this point, Spain has all but abandoned South America as a lost cause, leaving Chile alone as the last colony of note and standing near alone in the face of imminent Incan invasion.

As a result, the governor of Chile negotiates a separate surrender with the Inca, accepting the nominal sovereignty of the TAII in exchange for their continued autonomy. The wars in South America are essentially over from this point onwards.

 

[GohanLSSJ2]

someone make this TL because i'm a lazy fuck.

Spoiler alert: That's my TL.

 

[Lenwe]

Spoiler alert: That's my TL.

Link?

 

[markus meecham]

over from this point onwards.

did anyone turn the thermostat up?
damn son
but seriously now, a native led, enlightenment-inspired rainbow coalition emergin in south america, just imagine the butterflies this will cause in Europe?
i could see french, dutch and british writers painting Tupac Amaru ii as some kind of Marcus Aurelius of the mountains.

 

[GohanLSSJ2]

Link?

It's the one in my dignature. Once I reach book 3, I will have a similar scenario play out.

 

[Admiral Brown]

If anything La plata Will rebel inmediately, the elite of Buenos Aires have being growing With the help of the english contraband, and a constant feeling of being The unfavorite of The spanish colonies in América. The rebellious Streak of the place if of long date.
And Asuncion also will declare his independence, in fact Paraguay Basically governed itself With little regard of The Cédulas Reales and what Lima or Buenos Aires Say.
The fun thing Is that probably, the Spanish will only left whith Chile as a south american posesión, they have a big Army there el Real Situado, that was Pay from Lima, to mantain a profesional army to Figth The arauco war.

I am not sure if whats now Argentina would rebel in this scenario, at least not at first. The elites in Buenos Aires would not synpathize with an "Indian" rebellion. Fear might led them closer with the Spanish Crown. IOTL the Vicerroy (based in Buenos Aires since 1776) send troops to fight the rebels. Maybe, in the long run, if the state Tupac creates is stable, or if it is not but the Criollos in Buenos Aires believe Spain cannot defend them from it (and from its example), Criollos might rebel. But not inmediately.

 

[raharris1973]

Add to this a potential earlier Mexican war of independence on the 1780's and the Caribbean set ablaze with slave revolts, and likely Brazil exploding sooner, too and...

What are criollos, mestizos and indios of New Spain/Mexico, and the Captaincy-General of Guatemala, going to think of the example of TAII if it looks winning and successful in its early years?

Is everyone of the view that mainland Spanish America, from San Francisco, is essentially a set of areas that are more likely to end up after a decade or so as either all independent, or all suppressed by Spain, rather than having different results in different areas?

 

[markus meecham]

What are criollos, mestizos and indios of New Spain/Mexico, and the Captaincy-General of Guatemala, going to think of the example of TAII if it looks winning and successful in its early years?

Is everyone of the view that mainland Spanish America, from San Francisco, is essentially a set of areas that are more likely to end up after a decade or so as either all independent, or all suppressed by Spain, rather than having different results in different areas?

i mean, cold plausibility is one thing, but a little bit of wank sauce is not that unreal, and gives a lot of spice.

 

[SenatorChickpea]

I wonder if this might slightly strengthen the idea of a Gran Columbia, which never really got much traction in its brief existence OTL. Here, the spectre of a native-ruled empire to the south might drive the various criollo elites together somewhat. I mean, not dramatically so, and you'd still need a Santander-style federation for the republic to hold together, but it might give the idea a bit of a push.