WI: Tupac Amaru II captures Cuzco, Spanish possessions in the Americas collapse decades earlier?

[Deleted member 109224]

Unlikely, the place was too far away. Rio de la Plata would likely become a mess of warring caudillo statelets.

As for the rebels taking North Peru, who's to say that a fair number of the local natives wouldn't rise up on their own after hearing the news that Cusco and La Paz fell? While Lima would obviously never fall to such an internal uprising (the city would have to be taken from the outside), maybe a place such as, say, Cajamarca, could.

Who is to say that there would be a united Argentina though?

OTL it was the northern provinces which supported the idea of making an Inca King, and Republican Buenos Aires which opposed it. I could see Buenos Aires going its own way but the Congress of Tucuman opting to join Cuzco. Given that the Tucuman Congress proposed Cuzco as its capital, I don't think it'd be an implausible thing for northern Argentina to prefer tying its fate to Cuzco instead of Buenos Aires.

Paraguay, Entre Rios, Buenos Aires, and Uruguay would do their own thing TTL as they mostly did OTL though, I suppose.


The issue with going up to Cajamarca is that there's more of a geographic barrier. It's one thing to take control of the Altiplano since it's a single big plateau and another to march over to lower Peru. Perhaps Cuzco could conquer the rest of Peru (and Ecuador?) later on though when the Spanish Wars of Independence are raging.


Come to think of it, I wonder if there might be butting of heads between Bolivar's expansionist Colombia and a Kingdom of Cuzco intent on reclaiming Inca lands. Ecuador and North Peru would be a clear source of friction between the two. There was already war between Gran Colombia and Peru over Ecuador OTL.

 

[Vinization]

Who is to say that there would be a united Argentina though?

OTL it was the northern provinces which supported the idea of making an Inca King, and Republican Buenos Aires which opposed it. I could see Buenos Aires going its own way but the Congress of Tucuman opting to join Cuzco. Given that the Tucuman Congress proposed Cuzco as its capital, I don't think it'd be an implausible thing for northern Argentina to prefer tying its fate to Cuzco instead of Buenos Aires.

Paraguay, Entre Rios, Buenos Aires, and Uruguay would do their own thing TTL as they mostly did OTL though, I suppose.


The issue with going up to Cajamarca is that there's more of a geographic barrier. It's one thing to take control of the Altiplano since it's a single big plateau and another to march over to lower Peru. Perhaps Cuzco could conquer the rest of Peru (and Ecuador?) later on though when the Spanish Wars of Independence are raging.


Come to think of it, I wonder if there might be butting of heads between Bolivar's expansionist Colombia and a Kingdom of Cuzco intent on reclaiming Inca lands. Ecuador and North Peru would be a clear source of friction between the two. There was already war between Gran Colombia and Peru over Ecuador OTL.

Bolívar would likely have an entirely different career or even be butterflied away, since he was born in 1783. Heck, as a member of the elite and, thus, very afraid of powerful indios, he might even become a royalist commander or something if he's still born and has roughly the same career.

I don't see the difficulty with going to Cajamarca. It's still part of the Andes, and there would likely be at least some locals willing to cooperate.

As for Argentina, I misinterpreted your question. I wouldn't be surprised if Tucumán, Salta and Mendoza became part of Amaru's new empire. The lowlands would go on their own (a Platine Sengoku Jidai? That's prime TL material!).

 

[Deleted member 109224]

Bolívar would likely have an entirely different career or even be butterflied away, since he was born in 1783. Heck, as a member of the elite and, thus, very afraid of powerful indios, he might even become a royalist commander or something if he's still born and has roughly the same career.

I don't see the difficulty with going to Cajamarca. It's still part of the Andes, and there would likely be at least some locals willing to cooperate.

As for Argentina, I misinterpreted your question. I wouldn't be surprised if Tucumán, Salta and Mendoza became part of Amaru's new empire. The lowlands would go on their own (a Platine Sengoku Jidai? That's prime TL material!).

How about this? The Inca Empire also conquers Patagonia here.

 

[Vinization]

How about this? The Inca Empire also conquers Patagonia here.

View attachment 592164

I'd remove Patagonia + Córdoba and add Chile to this state. The rest is okay.

 

[Deleted member 109224]

I'd remove Patagonia + Córdoba and add Chile to this state. The rest is okay.

I don't think Chile had much interest in this sort of thing.

Meanwhile Patagonia was terra nullius from an international relations perspective and everybody in south american approximate to it seemed to want it.

 

[Vinization]

I don't think Chile had much interest in this sort of thing.

Meanwhile Patagonia was terra nullius from an international relations perspective and everybody in south american approximate to it seemed to want it.

I'd think the rebels would still try to conquer Chile by force, fearing it could become a royalist dagger pointed to their back. Better safe than sorry after all.

As for Patagonia, it'd probably be conquered by either Buenos Aires or the "Inca", but I have a soft spot for the Mapuche and having the area go all to Cusco's control would look really ugly in a map.

 

[Vinization]

One thing that could help the rebel cause considerable would be having Mateo Pumacahua and his native auxiliaries defect. IOTL he fought in the Royalist side, but as a Quechua noble he was more likely to change sides than most people, and he did revolt against Spain eventually, even if only in 1814 (more than thirty years later), after which he was imprisoned and executed. If he and the viceroy had a falling out...

 

[EnvarKadri]

I have been thinking about this but why not have the rebellion delayed for 30 years? Maybe the borbouns decide that peru is a little complicated so they exclude that viceroyalty from their reforms, centering their efforts in developing the new Nueva Granada and Río de la Plata viceroyalties. Then when Napoleon occupied Spain the andean nobility and peasantry can revolt at the same time of the criollos of Buenos Aires and Colombia around 1810. Having to fight everywhere in South America at the same time could make the royalist forces fail to secure any stronghold and force them to relocate to Mexico. And assuming in TTL the Fernando VII is forced to flee spain he may follow the example of the protuguese and move to Mexico.
A lot of handwaving on my part here, spanish south america is gigantic, what I mean is the fail to secure the viceroyalties of Peru and Nueva Granada and instead their forces are cutt off from each other, fighting to keep their areas. Of course,if the forces of Peru, Gran Colombia and (future) Argentina defeat the royalists a lot earlier they will likely come to blows with each other over their national borders a lot sooner. Also to internal conflict about how to reorganize the former vice royalties after the end of spanish rule. I think more internacional conflict in southamerica will help to reduce the duration of civil wars and national organization periods. Its less likely the governors will risk prolonged civil wars if that leaves them vulnerable to foreing invation.

 

[EnvarKadri]

Chile at this time was only the central part of the country, the north and south were annexed much later. Both the elite and the majority of the population were criollos. The chances of this region being annexed to a indian controlled Peru are few, and in the very odd chance they achieve this it will likely end in disaster for the peruvians. The central Valley of Chile is a very isolated region by geography. My guess is they will either go independent like in otl or join a federal Argentina (the federals winning the civil war early is probably necesary for any Argentina that includes Uruguay, Paraguay and Chile, in fact the most centers of power outside of Buenos Aires, the most likely is that the federals win and Buenos Aires loses the status of Capital and the control over the country's international trade) looking for a common alliance against Peru and to have access to the Federation internal market (assuming the abolition of inter provincial customs comes early, Chile is gonna have a lot of influence in the western provinces of Argentina here, those mountain provinces are deep in land and taking into account how bad roads there were in the 19th century there is a good chance it takes less time to export to europe by chilean ports then by Buenos Aires. This will give the country more of a west coast vs east coast thing (kinda like the US later on) instead of "Buenos Aires vs the rest of the country". Of course this will mean the federation (probably the same in Peru and Colombia tho) will be very decentralized and only defense, international trade and diplomacy will be federal issues, like the US early on.
Of course this scenario is very specific and requires a lot of stuff happening in the exact right way to (kinda) work, and I am stil handwaving a lot probably.

 

[Neal Caffrey]

I mean at this time there were a lot of people in the Comuneros Rebellion were very interested in having Tupac Ahmaru II as their actual king and Gaitan even at one point said that he wanted him to be king, and the criollo elite in Colombia were receptive to him, for example Antonio Nariño liked him even though he was part of a regiment that fought against Gaitan in Colombia (Who's execution radicalized him) so with a few changes a more powerful Comuneros rebellion could join up with Tupac Ahmaru II and they could quite reasonably take over most of the spanish holdings.

 

[Deleted member 109224]

I mean at this time there were a lot of people in the Comuneros Rebellion were very interested in having Tupac Ahmaru II as their actual king and Gaitan even at one point said that he wanted him to be king, and the criollo elite in Colombia were receptive to him, for example Antonio Nariño liked him even though he was part of a regiment that fought against Gaitan in Colombia (Who's execution radicalized him) so with a few changes a more powerful Comuneros rebellion could join up with Tupac Ahmaru II and they could quite reasonably take over most of the spanish holdings.

So it'd be a realm stretching across the bulk of the Andes. That's neat.

I don't think this Kingdom would be able to grab Chile though. My guess is they grab the Altioplano and link up with the Comuneros in New Granada, but Chile and the Rio de la Plata remain Spanish in the near-term.

I'm unsure if the Kingdom would be able to grab Venezuela though.

 

[Vinization]

I'd be very surprised if Túpac Amaru's forces made it to New Granada before the Spanish crushed the Comuneros. He'd have a lot more pressing matters to deal with, like capturing Lima, which would be extremely heavily fortified, and protecting himself from royalist counteroffensives coming from Chile and Buenos Aires.​

 

[EnvarKadri]

I'd be very surprised if Túpac Amaru's forces made it to New Granada before the Spanish crushed the Comuneros. He'd have a lot more pressing matters to deal with, like capturing Lima, which would be extremely heavily fortified, and protecting himself from royalist counteroffensives coming from Chile and Buenos Aires.​

Which is why I think the rebellion needs to have the 1810 context: Spanish empire self imploding under foreign occupation of the metropolis and local rebelions from Buenos Aires to Caracas all at the same time.

 

[Neal Caffrey]

I'd be very surprised if Túpac Amaru's forces made it to New Granada before the Spanish crushed the Comuneros. He'd have a lot more pressing matters to deal with, like capturing Lima, which would be extremely heavily fortified, and protecting himself from royalist counteroffensives coming from Chile and Buenos Aires.​

Well the Comuneros OTL had some twenty thousand and if they hadn't accepted the capitulation of Zipaquira there is a good chance they could have taken over Bogota as the army wasn't prepared for them, if you have them not accept the capitulations and take over Bogota then there is a good chance thye could survive and thrive until Tupac's forces went north, especially if they got the indigenous groups to back them.