From what we know from the Soviet archives so far, it seems that in 1937 the Bolsheviks (not only Stalin, but most everyone else who was writing memos about this as well) were pretty convinced that they really had only barely nipped a military coup in the bud when they started the purges of the Red Army officer corps.
Of course, with the system's paranoia, not to mention Stalin's own paranoia, it's hard to say one way or the other whether they were correct in this fear. However, for the sake of this WI, let's assume that Tukhachevsky and his friends in the officer corps really were planning a coup. And let's additionally say that they get the drop on the NKVD and are undetected until the coup is launched.
Just how bad would this be? Might we see a new Russian civil war? A bloody suppression of the coup? A bloody victory of the coup? Or might one side or the other succeed almost bloodlessly?
And was the Red Army in any position to take over the country in 1937? As I remember, at this point the army numbered about 500,000 men. Even if all of those men supported Tukhachevsky's coup, that may not be enough to prise the country from the grasp of the Party.
fasquardon
Of course, with the system's paranoia, not to mention Stalin's own paranoia, it's hard to say one way or the other whether they were correct in this fear. However, for the sake of this WI, let's assume that Tukhachevsky and his friends in the officer corps really were planning a coup. And let's additionally say that they get the drop on the NKVD and are undetected until the coup is launched.
Just how bad would this be? Might we see a new Russian civil war? A bloody suppression of the coup? A bloody victory of the coup? Or might one side or the other succeed almost bloodlessly?
And was the Red Army in any position to take over the country in 1937? As I remember, at this point the army numbered about 500,000 men. Even if all of those men supported Tukhachevsky's coup, that may not be enough to prise the country from the grasp of the Party.
fasquardon