WI Tsesarevich Nicholas Alexandrovich survived?

Yes. The second family of Alexander II is going to drive a wedge between him and his children, no matter who survives.
Yeah, if I remember correctly Minnie was not a fan of Katya IOTL, so the same divide likely occurs. One question is if this butterflies away Alexander II's death, at least in its gruesomeness (as I assume assassination attempts will still abound). It was seeing his grandfather blown to bits that left OTL's Nicholas II with the idea that reform was pointless and bad, so could a son of NA and Minnie (even with a more liberal father) come to the same conclusion?

Also for fun, I decided to create an alternate child list for NA and Minnie:
Nicholas II (b.1843 r.1881 d.1895) m. Maria Feodorovna nee Dagmar of Denmark (b.1847 m.1866 d.1928)
  1. Alexander III Nikolaevich (b. 1867 r. 1895 d.1935) m. Princess Maria of Romania (b.1870 m. 1889 d. 1956)
    1. Nicholas III Alexandrovich (b. 1890 r. 1935 d. 1964)
    2. Maria Alexandrovna (1892 - 1969)
    3. Alexander Alexandrovich (1894 - 1982)
    4. Alexei Alexandrovich (1896 - 1898)
    5. Elizabeth Alexandrovna (1899 - 1986)
  2. Nicholas Nikolaevich (1868- 1892)
  3. George Nikolaevich (1870- 1895)
  4. Michael Nikolaevich (1874 - 1875)
  5. Peter Nikolaevich (1877- 1964) m. Princess Maria of Greece and Denmark (1876-1940)
    1. Nicholas Petrovich (1901 - 1912)
    2. Nina Petrovna (1903 - 1949)
    3. George Petrovich (1903 - 1988)
    4. Peter Petrovich (1906 - 1910)
    5. Constantine Petrovich (1910 - 1927)
    6. Xenia Petrovna (1912 - 1981)
    7. Paul Petrovich (1915 - 1962)
  6. stillborn son (1881)
 
Yeah, if I remember correctly Minnie was not a fan of Katya IOTL, so the same divide likely occurs. One question is if this butterflies away Alexander II's death, at least in its gruesomeness (as I assume assassination attempts will still abound). It was seeing his grandfather blown to bits that left OTL's Nicholas II with the idea that reform was pointless and bad, so could a son of NA and Minnie (even with a more liberal father) come to the same conclusion?

Let’s start with the family issue. Taking into an account that there were nasty rumors about who was the real father of Maria Alexandrovna, there was a non-zero probability that AII may use situation to legitimize his children from the 2nd marriage and even to move them up the line of succession. If her true father was a mere baron than the marriage was violating Russian succession law of Paul I. Which would mean that the law has to be changed retroactively to the Petrian version (complete freedom of appointing the heir and no restrictions on spouses) to avoid a huge embarrassment. As a result, which children have a more prestigious and “truly Russian” pedigree? Those who descended from some obscure Swiss noble or those from one of the most ancient and aristocratic Russian princely families (the Rurikids)? This would, of course, be a rather long shot but who needs an unnecessary risk?

The next issue are “reforms”. Somehow it is being assumed by default that “reform” has to be (a) social, b) liberal and (c) have a positive impact. However, reforms can be economic, military, etc. and not having anything to do with liberalism. And, as was convincingly demonstrated during the reign of AII, the liberal reforms are not always producing expected results. Death of AII made it rather obvious that a witless liberalism (and caving to the “public opinion”) is not working but AIII supported Witte’s reforms in financial and economics areas (and some aspects of these reforms, like promotion of the technical education, can be considered quite progressive).
 
Let’s start with the family issue. Taking into an account that there were nasty rumors about who was the real father of Maria Alexandrovna, there was a non-zero probability that AII may use situation to legitimize his children from the 2nd marriage and even to move them up the line of succession. If her true father was a mere baron than the marriage was violating Russian succession law of Paul I. Which would mean that the law has to be changed retroactively to the Petrian version (complete freedom of appointing the heir and no restrictions on spouses) to avoid a huge embarrassment. As a result, which children have a more prestigious and “truly Russian” pedigree? Those who descended from some obscure Swiss noble or those from one of the most ancient and aristocratic Russian princely families (the Rurikids)? This would, of course, be a rather long shot but who needs an unnecessary risk?
I've already posted the legend that the Alex II assassination was helped along by his family. Nobody likes "Great Bastards" in succession line.
That said, the borda.ru link I've posted detailed in brief the scenario when Alex II abdicates in favor of Nicholas to start a family with Ms Dolgorukova as "private citizen". The matters quickly go downhill, as like unfamous Wallis Simpson who disliked being just Duchess of Windsor, Ms Dolgorukova would not be content with "just this" when she can enjoy all sorts of Royal priveleges (balls, her own court and such stuff). She is also much younger than Alexander II - so such an abdication is a move leading nowhere.
 
I've already posted the legend that the Alex II assassination was helped along by his family. Nobody likes "Great Bastards" in succession line.
That said, the borda.ru link I've posted detailed in brief the scenario when Alex II abdicates in favor of Nicholas to start a family with Ms Dolgorukova as "private citizen". The matters quickly go downhill, as like unfamous Wallis Simpson who disliked being just Duchess of Windsor, Ms Dolgorukova would not be content with "just this" when she can enjoy all sorts of Royal priveleges (balls, her own court and such stuff). She is also much younger than Alexander II - so such an abdication is a move leading nowhere.

I don’t think that he would abdicate because there would be no need: his son from the 2nd marriage was not on the succession line but this did not undermine his own legitimacy as an emperor so why would he do such an extraordinary thing? At least in OTL Dolgorukova kept a relatively low profile but who can tell what would be her future demands if AII survived? OTOH, the marriage was clearly morganatic (short of the unlikely scenario we both discussed) so her ceremonial role would be quite limited. But the real power was a completely different issue and she could try to play Mme Maintenon, if she had enough brains and willpower (not sure if she did; however she was not a fool).
 
I don’t think that he would abdicate because there would be no need: his son from the 2nd marriage was not on the succession line but this did not undermine his own legitimacy as an emperor so why would he do such an extraordinary thing? At least in OTL Dolgorukova kept a relatively low profile but who can tell what would be her future demands if AII survived? OTOH, the marriage was clearly morganatic (short of the unlikely scenario we both discussed) so her ceremonial role would be quite limited. But the real power was a completely different issue and she could try to play Mme Maintenon, if she had enough brains and willpower (not sure if she did; however she was not a fool).

Well, if you believe reports from the time Alexander was not so quietly musing about making his Dologorukova son a Grand Duke, which did not please his legitimate kids. I could see Alex legitimizing them but NA insisting they not be able to pass on their Grand Duke title.
Dologorukova herself didn't seem interested to be a power behind the throne and seemed content to be the mistress of the house and leave the duties to Minne (it was really Alex who was focused on getting the court to accept Katya
 
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