WI: Tsarevich Nicholas assassinated

I do not know if this has been proposed before, but here it goes: what if the then Tsarevich Nicholas had been killed in the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otsu_Incident ? The potential consequences are very interesting: a severe Russo-Japanese crisis (possibly leading to an earlier Russo-Japanese war?), and of course the succession to the imperial throne by Nicholas' brother George in 1894, and then, if butterflies do not intervene to prevent his early death, of Michael.
 
The Japanese seemed to be pretty sure that war would mean the military defeat of Japan - the Russiian fleet with the Tsesarevitch would have smashed Japan's rather small fleet of 1891, and the imposition of a blockade combined with coastal bombardment would have been enough to ensure a Japanese surrender without the need for Russian troops to ever land on the mainland.

Russia would demand Japanese recognition of Russian ownership of Sakhalin and the Kurils en toto, and of Russia's "special position" with regard to China and to Korea (still then a Chinese vassal)

The likely outcome is that by 1898 or so, you have a Russo-Chinese War to finish matters

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

J.D.Ward

Donor
The Imperial Family wish to atone for the death of the Tsarevich

To comment on this idea, I really want someone who knows how the Japanese ethic of honourable suicide worked a century ago, and not just the Western popular images of kamikaze and hara-kiri.

I see from the Wikipedia article that a young seamstress comitted suicide to express contrition for the attack. If Nicholas dies, is it possible that either the Emperor or the Crown Prince (then eleven years old) would feel obliged to commit suicide to atone for his death?

If the Crown Prince commits suicide, you've removed his son Hirohito (born 1901) from history, with interesting consequences in WWII. Also, you then have a succession problem in Japan, as the Crown Prince was IOTL the Emperor's only surviving son.
 

Germaniac

Donor
The Crown prince wouldn't have killed himself... Anyway Brother George would become Tsarevich. It is likely that Alexander III will die prematurely with the extra stress of his heir dying. George will become tsar, however it won't be for long, while doctors will attempt to keep the young tsar alive, he wont live long. Franz Ferdinand had severe tuberculosis and survived, so its possible and with him being emperor I see a huge effort to keep him alive.


If he dies Michael will take the throne
 
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