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Let's butterfly Dubya away by saying that he loses to Ann Richards in 1994 after his DUI story comes out during the 1994 campaign for Texas governor instead of during the 2000 presidential race.

Without a GOP frontrunner in 2000, the race is a total free-for-all, with Lamar Alexander, Liddy Dole, Alan Keyes, John McCain, etc, all polling in single digits or low double digits by mid-1999.

Instead of making a bid for the Reform Party nod and hawking his creds as an independent, let's say Trump decides to make a serious run as a Republican for the nomination. Also, let's say he clears the field once the votes actually start to come in during the primaries by running as the Republican alternative to Bill Clinton --- a capitalist tough guy who can also be sold to soccer moms. Trump then becomes the Republican nominee and faces off against Gore in the general.

Would Trump still win such a race? We saw how Trump did way better in states like Pennsylvania than Dubya ever did, but way worse in states like Texas. Would Trump best Gore by winning a much more broad-based electoral coalition, i.e., winning mild victories in Southern states while narrowly taking Rust Belt and Midwestern states too that Bush never quite managed to snag? Would Tennessee and Arkansas and possibly Louisiana still vote for Gore as they did Clinton? Does West Virginia remain Democratic? How does this affect the two parties down the line?
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