I heard that Trump considered running in 2012 as an Independent, but as we all know it never happened. But what if he kept his words and actually did join the race? What would've actually happened? Could he have pulled it off in the race? Would he had at least won any state?
 
This should def be in chat, since there's not really a way to discuss it without bringing up current politics.

But with that said, he certainly doesn't win and either splits the right wing vote enough to hand Obama a massive reelection victory, or his impact is overall so minimal that only a few states flip for Obama. I could see him getting enough support and media coverage to make some of the debates, but my honest feeling is that Obama would mop the floor with him. It's /possible/ that Obama and Trump could wind up in such a flamewar that Romney comes out looking like the only adult, and wins a narrow EC victory as a result, but I find that unlikely.
 
This should def be in chat, since there's not really a way to discuss it without bringing up current politics.

But with that said, he certainly doesn't win and either splits the right wing vote enough to hand Obama a massive reelection victory, or his impact is overall so minimal that only a few states flip for Obama. I could see him getting enough support and media coverage to make some of the debates, but my honest feeling is that Obama would mop the floor with him. It's /possible/ that Obama and Trump could wind up in such a flamewar that Romney comes out looking like the only adult, and wins a narrow EC victory as a result, but I find that unlikely.

There's no evidence to suppose that especially since Trump will draw votes primarily from the right even with an economically populist platform.
 
He wouldn't get anywhere at all. Third party tickets are bound to fail. Obama would still win, and then Ted Cruz would be president after 2016.
 
Really depends on his running mate, but even so he'll only get a relative handful of votes and won't make a dent in the popular vote, as @Centralen says. I don't think he'd get a single electoral vote, even from a faithless elector (who would be much more likely to vote for a different candidate for their own party than one from a completely different party).
 
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This straddles the line of current politics, but simply put, Obama wins, Trump doesn’t have a prayer in 2016, some other Republican (Cruz, Kasich, who the hell knows) wins.
 
Trump will hurt Romney far more than Obama (even in 2016 with all the emphasis on Obama-to-Trump voters, most of Trump's vote came from traditional Republican voters--and in any event 2012 was not 2016 and Obama was not HRC) and of course will be blamed for Obama's victory (even if in fact Obama gets more than 50 percent of the total vote) and will have no chance of winning the 2016 GOP nomination.

All this is so obvious that there is no chance of Trump's doing this. If he runs for the GOP nomination in 2012, he may want to hold out the threat of an independent candidacy as blackmail--in effect, "nominate me or else"--but it would be nothing more than a bluff, because to follow through on it would ruin his hopes for the 2016 GOP nomination.

Even though this is about 2012 I do think that in general discussions of Trump--even of his past--should go in Chat, because whatever the POD you really cannot avoid talking about current politics.
 
Trump will hurt Romney far more than Obama (even in 2016 with all the emphasis on Obama-to-Trump voters, most of Trump's vote came from traditional Republican voters--and in any event 2012 was not 2016 and Obama was not HRC) and of course will be blamed for Obama's victory (even if in fact Obama gets more than 50 percent of the total vote) and will have no chance of winning the 2016 GOP nomination.

All this is so obvious that there is no chance of Trump's doing this. If he runs for the GOP nomination in 2012, he may want to hold out the threat of an independent candidacy as blackmail--in effect, "nominate me or else"--but it would be nothing more than a bluff, because to follow through on it would ruin his hopes for the 2016 GOP nomination.

Even though this is about 2012 I do think that in general discussions of Trump--even of his past--should go in Chat, because whatever the POD you really cannot avoid talking about current politics.

I imagine that if Trump had run in 2012 there'd have been a decent chance he'd win the nomination, with Romney playing the role of Jeb Bush and Santorum as Cruz, but if nominated he almost certainly would've lost to Obama. It's doubtful that he gets renominated in 2016 or ever becomes President.
 
He wouldn't win in 2012, but it would build up his base earlier and build credibility that he didn't have in 2015 in OTL. In 2016 when he would run again (as a Republican), he'd be the clear favorite even earlier and primary season may well have been effectively finished within February.
 
He wouldn't win in 2012, but it would build up his base earlier and build credibility that he didn't have in 2015 in OTL. In 2016 when he would run again (as a Republican), he'd be the clear favorite even earlier and primary season may well have been effectively finished within February.

But with that said, if he's the obvious front runner at the start of the season and Republican "establishment" types are still opposed to him, might that not give them a better chance to coalesce around one of their own and deny him the nomination?
 
He wouldn't win in 2012, but it would build up his base earlier and build credibility that he didn't have in 2015 in OTL. In 2016 when he would run again (as a Republican), he'd be the clear favorite even earlier and primary season may well have been effectively finished within February.

There would be tremendous resentment of him--and not just from GOP Establishment types--for allegedly making it possible for Obama to win in 2012. You might as well have Ralph Nader run for the Democratic nomination in 2004 or Ross Perot for the GOP nomination in 1996. In each case, the point is not whether the independent candidate really cost the party the election but the fact that he is perceived as having doing so.

Remember that even in OTL Trump only won 44.9 percent of the GOP electorate in the primaries. A Trump who was perceived as being a "spoiler" in 2012 would do much worse.
 
Let’s not forget that Trump pre-2015 was fairly liberal, so he would get some votes from Obama. Let’s say in 2012 he runs on a platform that’s a mix of economic leftism and social conservatism. In the wake of a 2008 recovery that for many people, wasn’t a recovery and the TEA Party movement he could do very well, maybe even win if he picks someone like Bernie as VP. Many who traditionally sit out of elections would vote for him. On a platform that’s economically leftist and social conservative he could win votes from both the Urban poor, and rural areas. This would make him a strong candidate. (for those wondering why I picked a platform that’s economically left, but socialy conservative, Trump was kinda a centrist in 2012, and his pick thing is that he, at least in rhetoric, is a populist, and a platform that’s economically left, but socialy conservative is that it doesn’t give a preference to either side of the American political spectrum, but still populist)
 
Let’s not forget that Trump pre-2015 was fairly liberal, so he would get some votes from Obama. Let’s say in 2012 he runs on a platform that’s a mix of economic leftism and social conservatism. In the wake of a 2008 recovery that for many people, wasn’t a recovery and the TEA Party movement he could do very well, maybe even win if he picks someone like Bernie as VP. Many who traditionally sit out of elections would vote for him. On a platform that’s economically leftist and social conservative he could win votes from both the Urban poor, and rural areas. This would make him a strong candidate. (for those wondering why I picked a platform that’s economically left, but socialy conservative, Trump was kinda a centrist in 2012, and his pick thing is that he, at least in rhetoric, is a populist, and a platform that’s economically left, but socialy conservative is that it doesn’t give a preference to either side of the American political spectrum, but still populist)

By 2012 he was already a birther. And the urban poor, when they do vote, don't usually vote Republican...
 
Let’s not forget that Trump pre-2015 was fairly liberal, so he would get some votes from Obama.

He would take many more from Romney. Not only was Trump a birther, but in 2011 he was already appearing before CPAC, "saying he's pro-life and anti-gun control. He said he'd dismantle Obama's health care law." https://www.politico.com/story/2011/02/cpac-to-trump-youre-hired-049268 Above all, when you are running a campaign stating that the US was doing terribly under Obama, you are going to appeal most to people who would not have voted for Obama anyway (though some might have stayed home instead of voting for Romney).
 
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