WI: Truman v. Taft in 1952

What if Harry S. Truman is somehow renominated by the Democrats in 1952, but at the same time Robert Taft wins the Republican nomination? Truman was incredibly unpopular at the time, and the Democrats had been in power for 20 years. However, it is almost a foregone conclusion here that Robert Taft was unelectable given his extreme views. In such a matchup, who do you think would probably win? How would the race go? If Truman is reelected, how would his third term be like?
 
Truman actually thought Taft would be the better candidate in 1948, so I presume he would run even harder in 1952. And he would enjoy it a lot more. Ultimately, Truman would eke out a win because Eisenhower would not back Taft. But Truman was really unpopular, it wouldn't be a landslide. The sheer lack of a Republican landslide means the class of '46 is cut down a bit earlier instead of decimated in '58. The really interesting thing is how Harry Truman works with Majority Leader Lyndon Johnson. More of the Fair Deal will get through with LBJ's backing.
 
Truman would win it. The average American was a lot more liberal than. When Taft opens his mouth he was doomed. Plus Ike would not support Taft. Good question who might be the VEEP candidates? I don't think Truman keeps his. Who would Taft pick? Also maybe Truman puts Ike in Korea, has a General. Or part of the cabinet.
 

bguy

Donor
Truman actually thought Taft would be the better candidate in 1948, so I presume he would run even harder in 1952. And he would enjoy it a lot more. Ultimately, Truman would eke out a win because Eisenhower would not back Taft. But Truman was really unpopular, it wouldn't be a landslide. The sheer lack of a Republican landslide means the class of '46 is cut down a bit earlier instead of decimated in '58. The really interesting thing is how Harry Truman works with Majority Leader Lyndon Johnson. More of the Fair Deal will get through with LBJ's backing.

If the Democrats do better in the Senate elections, then Ernest McFarland almost certainly wins relection in Arizona, which means he'll continue as Majority Leader. At any rate the Fair Deal will be dead in the water no matter who the Majority Leader is. The conservative coalition in Congress is just too strong at this time for any major legislation to get passed. (In fact you've probably got a better chance of seeing federal aid to education and increased public housing and hospital construction enacted under President Taft than under Truman.)

Truman would win it. The average American was a lot more liberal than. When Taft opens his mouth he was doomed. Plus Ike would not support Taft. Good question who might be the VEEP candidates? I don't think Truman keeps his. Who would Taft pick? Also maybe Truman puts Ike in Korea, has a General. Or part of the cabinet.

Taft was able to win three statewide elections in Ohio, so he obviously could appeal to more than just conservative voters. And Taft had rather liberal positions on public education, public housing, and hospital aid. Nor were his conservative positions on taxes, spending, and unions unpopular in the country at large. (Even large numbers of Democrats supported Taft-Hartley.)

And Taft's veep would probably have been William Knowland. Young senator with war experience from an important state, who is conservative enough to satisfy Taft, but has connections to the moderate wing of the party (Knowland was a close political ally of Earl Warren.)
 
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If the Democrats do better in the Senate elections, then Ernest McFarland almost certainly wins relection in Arizona, which means he'll continue as Majority Leader.
McFarland was so incompetent as Majority Leader that I wouldn't bet on Truman's coattails extending to him. At all.

At any rate the Fair Deal will be dead in the water no matter who the Majority Leader is. The conservative coalition in Congress is just too strong at this time for any major legislation to get passed. (In fact you've probably got a better chance of seeing federal aid to education and increased public housing and hospital construction enacted under President Taft than under Truman.)
It depends on LBJ really, but if you want the typical Trumanwank, you need a POD in Korea, not in 1952.
 

bguy

Donor
McFarland was so incompetent as Majority Leader that I wouldn't bet on Truman's coattails extending to him. At all.

McFarland only lost by 3 points, and that was even after making an Akin level campaign gaffe (calling the Korean War a cheap war because we were killing 9 Chinese for every American lost) that could easily be butterflied away, and with Goldwater playing the Ike card for all its worth during the campaign. (Goldwater himself said afterwards that he was "the greatest coattail rider in history" and that he wouldn't have won without the help of Eisenhower's popularity.) No way Goldwater wins without Ike at the top of the ticket.
 
And Taft's veep would probably have been William Knowland. Young senator with war experience from an important state, who is conservative enough to satisfy Taft, but has connections to the moderate wing of the party (Knowland was a close political ally of Earl Warren.)

This is actually pretty important; it would be hard to butterfly away Taft's death by cancer in 1953, so his term would be fairly short (he retired as Majority Leader in May in OTL, so if he was elected President he'd have maybe four or five months in office before he started to die). It's not the Taft administration we're talking about here, it's the Knowland (or whoever) administration.
 
McFarland only lost by 3 points, and that was even after making an Akin level campaign gaffe (calling the Korean War a cheap war because we were killing 9 Chinese for every American lost) that could easily be butterflied away, and with Goldwater playing the Ike card for all its worth during the campaign. (Goldwater himself said afterwards that he was "the greatest coattail rider in history" and that he wouldn't have won without the help of Eisenhower's popularity.) No way Goldwater wins without Ike at the top of the ticket.
Ike certainly helped, but McFarland was on a downward star. Taft would be a stronger candidate in Arizona than Dewey, and might win it. Truman's victory won't be a big one, not big enough to save McFarland, who will be tied to Truman except that he's not the same campaigner as Truman.

This is actually pretty important; it would be hard to butterfly away Taft's death by cancer in 1953, so his term would be fairly short (he retired as Majority Leader in May in OTL, so if he was elected President he'd have maybe four or five months in office before he started to die). It's not the Taft administration we're talking about here, it's the Knowland (or whoever) administration.

I've toyed with a President Nixon '53 TL. And of course Wolfpaw uses this POD for his Tail-Gunner in the Pilot's Seat TL.
 
Taft is even more boring and uninspiring than Dewey, and his foreign policy is both extreme and unable to attack Truman over China, Joe-1, and Korea. If Truman goes on another enrgetic campaign I reckon he'd win in a very tight race.

Now bring on Nixon in 1960! :D
 
I dunno, I actually think Taft could pull it off because he is seen as too extreme. He knows he has an uphill battle and campaigns accordingly and moderates some of his positions for domestic consumption. Personally, I think any strong Republican Candidate would win in 1952 as long as they don't put everyone to sleep like Dewey.
 
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I dunno, I actually think Taft could pull it off because he is seen as too extreme. He knows he has an uphill battle and campaigns accordingly and moderates some of his positions for domestic consumption. Personally, I think any strong Republican Candidate would win in 1952 as long as they don't put everyone to sleep like Dewey.

Eisenhower was so afraid of Taft's isolationism that he would have endorsed (and possibly even campaigned) for Truman. If Ike had a heart attack or something, though, and was out of the picture, I could see Taft winning. Eisenhower was crazily popular, seen in the same light as FDR.
 
Eisenhower was so afraid of Taft's isolationism that he would have endorsed (and possibly even campaigned) for Truman. If Ike had a heart attack or something, though, and was out of the picture, I could see Taft winning. Eisenhower was crazily popular, seen in the same light as FDR.

Good point, I suppose Eisenhower is the wild factor in this scenario. But if Taft decides to swap idealism for politcal gain, what if he offers Ike the VP slot, with a guarentee not to go too far with the isolationalism?
 
Good point, I suppose Eisenhower is the wild factor in this scenario. But if Taft decides to swap idealism for politcal gain, what if he offers Ike the VP slot, with a guarentee not to go too far with the isolationalism?

That would be like Ron Paul picking John McCain as his running mate:p Sorry, but that's double ASB.
 
What if Eisenhower, thinking its time for Truman to go but strongly against Taft's isolationism, launches an independent bid for the presidency?
 
What if Eisenhower, thinking its time for Truman to go but strongly against Taft's isolationism, launches an independent bid for the presidency?

Hung electoral college, less of a coattail effect in the House probably leads to Truman being re-elected but either Taft or Ikes nominee becoming Veep.
 
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