WI Truman runs in 1952

I assume he loses, since he was extraordinarily unpopular at the end of his term, but how bad? Worse than the OTL landslide or is the power of the incumbency (even a really unpopular incumbent) enough to make it a little closer? Could he conceivably be denied the Democratic nomination? I know he lost the New Hampshire primary to Kefauver before he officially announced he wasn't running, but primaries were less important back then and I'm sure a sitting President could have corralled enough party bosses to secure the nomination if he really wanted it. Would there be any longer term impact of Truman running in 1952 or would it just be an interesting footnote that doesn't change much?
 
After the disaster we call Korea, the media scandal, support for <whispers for fear of Calbear> "Macarthur", the overall scandal in China?

He has a large chance of massive loss. 40-60% loss?

Plus why would the Democrats allow that, even they know its suicide and with Eisenhower facing them they probably say Vamos to Truman.
 
Truman doesn't have a prayer against Eisenhower. He's gonna lose BIG. Given his tragically inept mismanagement of the Korean War, Truman deserves to lose by a landslide.
 
Truman doesn't have a prayer against Eisenhower. He's gonna lose BIG. Given his tragically inept mismanagement of the Korean War, Truman deserves to lose by a landslide.
Really what killed him was the fact that Macarthur was allowed to make it to the border river, had he stopped and gathered force Truman could probably safely declare victory a few months later.

Its the media circus that lost Truman there.
 
After the disaster we call Korea, the media scandal, support for <whispers for fear of Calbear> "Macarthur", the overall scandal in China?

He has a large chance of massive loss. 40-60% loss?

Plus why would the Democrats allow that, even they know its suicide and with Eisenhower facing them they probably say Vamos to Truman.

Eisenhower beat Stevenson 55-44 with 442 EVs in OTL. Kentucky, South Carolina, and West Virginia were all within 4 points and Louisiana and North Carolina were 6 points and 8 points respectively. If it gets to 60-40 as you describe, Eisenhower could feasibly get to 490ish electoral votes.

If the Dems do decide to dump Truman, would they still go with Stevenson? My understanding is that the selection of Stevenson was largely influenced by Truman's support for him. Without that, might the Democrats nominate Kefauver instead?
 
I doubt Eisenhower would run against an incumbent President.

The Draft Eisenhower movement was well underway before Truman announced he wasn't running, and Eisenhower won 5 state primaries before he even announced his intention to run. If you're right that Eisenhower was dead-set against challenging an incumbent he could take a wait-and-see approach all the way up to the convention. If it looks like Truman is going to be the Democratic nominee, he can say that he is flattered by the support but does not wish to be a candidate. But if Truman looks dead, he can announce like OTL and win the nomination. There would be some uncertainty involved however, since the Republican convention was 2 weeks before the Democratic one.

If Eisenhower declines, the Republicans nominate Taft, who probably wins regardless of whether the Democratic nominee is Truman, Stevenson, or Kefauver. It was a Republican year. The only thing to be sorted out is the margin of victory.
 
The Draft Eisenhower movement was well underway before Truman announced he wasn't running, and Eisenhower won 5 state primaries before he even announced his intention to run. If you're right that Eisenhower was dead-set against challenging an incumbent he could take a wait-and-see approach all the way up to the convention. If it looks like Truman is going to be the Democratic nominee, he can say that he is flattered by the support but does not wish to be a candidate. But if Truman looks dead, he can announce like OTL and win the nomination. There would be some uncertainty involved however, since the Republican convention was 2 weeks before the Democratic one.

If Eisenhower declines, the Republicans nominate Taft, who probably wins regardless of whether the Democratic nominee is Truman, Stevenson, or Kefauver. It was a Republican year. The only thing to be sorted out is the margin of victory.

I disagree that Taft would win. The man was completely out of place in the post New Deal world. No one wanted to go back to the Hoover years. The Republicans did best back then when they went more to the left, embracing some of the FDR programs. Taft would give the Democrats their sixth straight term.
 
I disagree that Taft would win. The man was completely out of place in the post New Deal world. No one wanted to go back to the Hoover years. The Republicans did best back then when they went more to the left, embracing some of the FDR programs. Taft would give the Democrats their sixth straight term.

Sometimes very flawed candidates can win if the anger against the current administration is strong enough. See 1920 as an example of that. Truman's approval numbers in 1952 were comparable to Nixon's at the height of the Watergate scandal. It really was that bad. People may not want to vote for Taft, but they definitely want to vote against the Democrats. It wouldn't be a landslide win like Eisenhower's, but I think a Republican victory is likely no matter who the candidate is.
 
Sometimes very flawed candidates can win if the anger against the current administration is strong enough. See 1920 as an example of that. Truman's approval numbers in 1952 were comparable to Nixon's at the height of the Watergate scandal. It really was that bad. People may not want to vote for Taft, but they definitely want to vote against the Democrats. It wouldn't be a landslide win like Eisenhower's, but I think a Republican victory is likely no matter who the candidate is.

How good of a campaigner were Truman, Kefauver, and Stevenson? Maybe the Democrats could win another term if you have a good Democrat campaigner and a poor Republican candidate. How well did Cox campaign against Harding in 1920?
 

Sabot Cat

Banned
The most likely PODs for this are that Korea is somehow handled better. Let's assume Truman turns it into a quick victory by 1950 and does not fire MacArthur, which was a huge debacle. Can he win then?
 
In February 1952, Truman's job approval rating, according to Gallup, was *22 percent.* http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/p...ings-gallup-historical-statistics-trends.aspx That's worse than Nixon in July-August 1974 (just before his resignation), worse than GW Bush in October 2008 (with the economy in free fall), worse than Jimmy Carter's low in July 1979, etc.

Even Taft, I am convinced, could beat Truman, but Eisenhower would beat him more easily (and by an even bigger margin than he did Stevenson). And yes, Eisenhower would run. Asking whether Ike would run against an incumbent president misses the point. Eisenhower did not become a candidate to defeat Stevenson or any other Democrat. He became a candidate *to defeat Taft.* His problem with Taft was not in domestic affairs (where on some issues like housing Taft was actually to the left of Eisenhower) but in foreign policy. In fact, Ike even arranged for a private meeting with Taft in which he offered to make a firm declaration of non-candidacy if only Taft would show a sufficient commitment to NATO and collective security--which Taft would not do to Ike's satisfaction. https://books.google.com/books?id=23-BoRz5p1cC&pg=PA71
 

Gaius Julius Magnus

Gone Fishin'
The most likely PODs for this are that Korea is somehow handled better. Let's assume Truman turns it into a quick victory by 1950 and does not fire MacArthur, which was a huge debacle. Can he win then?

A quick victory? Probably, but post-war recession, Truman's general unpopularity, party fatigue, and the Red Scare would still be a factor. Close re-election would be his best result.

This also depends on who the Republicans nominate. He could probably beat Taft in such a scenario but I don't think Eisenhower.
 
The most likely PODs for this are that Korea is somehow handled better. Let's assume Truman turns it into a quick victory by 1950 and does not fire MacArthur, which was a huge debacle. Can he win then?
It would help, but what other issues hurt the Democratic party at the time apart from the 20 years of rule.
 
Any truth to the rumor that Eisenhower may not have actually considered himself a Republican prior to deciding to run and only ran as a Republican because he was scared Taft was going to win the nomination as a Republican and it was going to be a Republican who would win no matter who it was. Eisenhower was quite liberal when you think about it- civil rights and desegregation, didn't try to abandon New Deal (in fact continued and expanded it and Social Security), Interstates and infrastructure spending, starting NASA, encouraging nuclear power plants, and warned in his farewell address (probably second most famous one in history, next to Washington's) in which he warned about the corporate influence on Congress and politics and the industrial-military complex (actually he said industrial-military-congressional complex) and warned AGAINST large military spending because of it's affect on the deficit. Eisenhower is actually a modern day liberal Democrat and totally at odds with later Reagan conservative Republicans. Now, Nixon wasn't much more conservative either (began the EPA), so was Eisenhower just old school liberal Republican of the Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt flavor because this was before the Reagan Revolution? Or could Eisenhower just have used the Republican party for his own use to so he could do what was right for the USA?
 
I disagree that Taft would win. The man was completely out of place in the post New Deal world. No one wanted to go back to the Hoover years. The Republicans did best back then when they went more to the left, embracing some of the FDR programs. Taft would give the Democrats their sixth straight term.
Taft won Ohio by a good margin, he knew how to win the votes of workers in the very unions he'd broken.

Any truth to the rumor that Eisenhower may not have actually considered himself a Republican prior to deciding to run and only ran as a Republican because he was scared Taft was going to win the nomination as a Republican and it was going to be a Republican who would win no matter who it was. Eisenhower was quite liberal when you think about it- civil rights and desegregation, didn't try to abandon New Deal (in fact continued and expanded it and Social Security), Interstates and infrastructure spending, starting NASA, encouraging nuclear power plants, and warned in his farewell address (probably second most famous one in history, next to Washington's) in which he warned about the corporate influence on Congress and politics and the industrial-military complex (actually he said industrial-military-congressional complex) and warned AGAINST large military spending because of it's affect on the deficit. Eisenhower is actually a modern day liberal Democrat and totally at odds with later Reagan conservative Republicans. Now, Nixon wasn't much more conservative either (began the EPA), so was Eisenhower just old school liberal Republican of the Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt flavor because this was before the Reagan Revolution? Or could Eisenhower just have used the Republican party for his own use to so he could do what was right for the USA?
Eisenhower was a Republican no doubt; on many domestic issues he sort of started on the same page as Taft (if anything, he was less liberal on civil rights). But he valued compromise and consensus, working more with the moderate Republicans and Democrats, leading to a much more liberal domestic policy than Taft would ever have allowed.

Which leads me to the interesting scenario: Conservative Taft vs. unpopular Truman vs. Independent moderate Eisenhower. Could Eisenhower win?
 
Truman loses and loses big, and bigger than Stevenson did. Whether Ike was the GOP nominee or not, '52 was a GOP year.
 
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