WI: Troubridge Intercepted Goeben and Breslau?

What if Troubridge Intercepted Goeben and Breslau?

Troubridge resolved to intercept the German squadron and headed southwards to do so, but his flag captain, Fawcet Wray, argued against seeking battle.[7] Troubridge was reluctant to do so anyway, knowing that his ships would be both outranged and attacking in daylight, but felt it was the only honourable option. Wray argued that it would be suicide for the squadron to fight the bigger and longer-ranging guns of the Goeben and as Wray had a particular reputation in the fleet as an expert on gunnery, Troubridge allowed himself to be persuaded. In tears, Troubridge ordered the chase to be abandoned, a decision that caused Wray to say 'Sir, this is the bravest thing you have ever done

Troubridge′s squadron consisted of the armoured cruisers HMS Defence, Black Prince, Warrior, Duke of Edinburgh and eight destroyers armed with torpedoes.

What's the result? Who wins the engagement?
 
The Germans have a very significant advantage. Goeben outclasses Troubridge's Armoured cruisers in armour and armament and has a speed advantage which will help her prevent Troubridge from closing the range. However, Goeben's damaged boilers reduce that advantage significantly so it's not all that much. Additionally there are four British armoured cruisers. So Souchon will have to either split his fire across all four of them or focus on each one in turn and hope he can knock them out quickly enough. There's also the matter of the British destroyers. IIRC four of them had enough fuel to accompnay the cruisers so they may try and run in to make torpedo attacks on Goeben and Breslau. They may or may not succeed, it'll depend on how quickly they can close in. There's also the matter of the Breslau and what she'll do during the engagement. My guess is that Breslau will shelter behind Goeben like she did when they encountered the Russian fleet IOTL. There's also the matter of the guns. The 9.2 inch guns on Troubridge's armoured cruisers are known for being inaccurate but having good penetration. If they can get within range, they'll be able to do some damage to Goeben's deck and upper works but nothing really serious unless they get VERY close. Which isn't going to happen. I also think that the British numbers will make up for their guns' inaccuracy. Goeben's guns will of course be able to penetrate the armoured cruisers armour. There's also the matter of Souchon's fuel situation. He doesn't have all that much and needs to meet up with his Collier around Cape Matapan, IIRC. He's also working with damaged boilers and won't want to risk any further damage that would reduce his speed further. With all of that in mind, my assessment for the engagement is that Troubridge attacks in a spread out formation to try and split the fire from Goeben and let his cruisers close. The destroyers will hang around and look for an opportunity to make a torpedo run. Souchon will, I think try to avoid the engagement and use his, albeit limited, adavantage in speed to flee and make use of his guns' longer range to hit at Troubridge without taking damage in return. Beyond that it'll depend on specifics of who takes hits where and what damage results. It might not make for a big change from OTL or it might slow Souchin down enough that Milne catches him.
 
The Germans have a very significant advantage. Goeben outclasses Troubridge's Armoured cruisers in armour and armament and has a speed advantage which will help her prevent Troubridge from closing the range. However, Goeben's damaged boilers reduce that advantage significantly so it's not all that much. Additionally there are four British armoured cruisers. So Souchon will have to either split his fire across all four of them or focus on each one in turn and hope he can knock them out quickly enough. There's also the matter of the British destroyers. IIRC four of them had enough fuel to accompnay the cruisers so they may try and run in to make torpedo attacks on Goeben and Breslau. They may or may not succeed, it'll depend on how quickly they can close in. There's also the matter of the Breslau and what she'll do during the engagement. My guess is that Breslau will shelter behind Goeben like she did when they encountered the Russian fleet IOTL. There's also the matter of the guns. The 9.2 inch guns on Troubridge's armoured cruisers are known for being inaccurate but having good penetration. If they can get within range, they'll be able to do some damage to Goeben's deck and upper works but nothing really serious unless they get VERY close. Which isn't going to happen. I also think that the British numbers will make up for their guns' inaccuracy. Goeben's guns will of course be able to penetrate the armoured cruisers armour. There's also the matter of Souchon's fuel situation. He doesn't have all that much and needs to meet up with his Collier around Cape Matapan, IIRC. He's also working with damaged boilers and won't want to risk any further damage that would reduce his speed further. With all of that in mind, my assessment for the engagement is that Troubridge attacks in a spread out formation to try and split the fire from Goeben and let his cruisers close. The destroyers will hang around and look for an opportunity to make a torpedo run. Souchon will, I think try to avoid the engagement and use his, albeit limited, adavantage in speed to flee and make use of his guns' longer range to hit at Troubridge without taking damage in return. Beyond that it'll depend on specifics of who takes hits where and what damage results. It might not make for a big change from OTL or it might slow Souchin down enough that Milne catches him.

Much thanks for the well crafted analysis.:D
 
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