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I don’t usually try to write ACW WIs, but I don’t remember seeing something like this before.

The general POD is that the Trent Affair leads to war due to miscommunication. As has been amply demonstrated in various threads on this forum, the British government was (however reluctantly) prepared to go to war over the Trent Affair. The terms of their ultimatum were clear enough: a positive response within 7 days, including releasing Mason and Slidell, or war. The British ambassador to Washington, Lord Lyons, did what he could by relaying the contents unofficially to Seward and meeting unofficially at least twice before he officially presented the ultimatum.

On the advice of Charles Sumner, Lincoln at first backed the idea of referring the matter to arbitration rather than handing over Mason and Slidell. While initially belligerent himself, Seward had come around to the view that releasing the two Confederate commissioners was the only course to avoid war. Ultimately, Seward’s view prevailed and the crisis was resolved.

So the divergence is that Lincoln ends up responding to the British ultimatum with a proposal for international arbitration rather than releasing Mason and Slidell. This comes about either because Seward doesn’t grasp the problems with suggesting arbitration, or he’s indisposed due to a surfeit of lampreys, and/or Sumner is more influential in pushing for arbitration (in OTL, I believe he was busy in the leadup to the vital US Cabinet meeting).

So, Lincoln responds to the British with an arbitration proposal, Lord Lyons (as per his instructions) withdraws his legation from Washington D.C. War is declared.

This is, however, not as harsh a war as might be assumed. Lincoln is not particularly keen on fighting the British any more or for any longer than he has to. Britain, for their part, will fight if they need to but aren’t keen on expanding the war any more than necessary.

What this means is that, in terms of land-based combat... there isn’t any. The British government vetoes proposals to capture Portland, Maine; while a useful rail junction to supply Canada, it might make the U.S. even more determined to fight. On the Northern side, some troops are recalled from facing the Confederacy and sent north to guard against any British-Canadian invasion attempts, and potentially to invade Canada if it is deemed necessary – but Lincoln chooses not to issue such an order since he doesn’t particularly want to broaden the war either. In any event, winter campaigns aren’t a very bright idea, which both sides recognise.

Various U.S. coastal cities and towns call up militia (however poorly-armed they might be), or perhaps call some troops home to defend against the perceived British threat. There’s lots of excitement and fear about potential British invasions of coastal regions, but the only U.S. casualties will be from disease or friendly fire; the British aren’t interested in invading random towns.

In short, the Trent War turns into a Phoney War analogue on land.

Navally, things do involve some combat, though it’s not an all-out war. The Royal Navy already had ships on deployment in Bermuda, and wastes no time in breaking the Northern blockade of the Confederacy. Not so much to benefit the Confederacy – which the British are not particularly interested in supporting – but as it’s a convenient way to force engagements with some elements of the U.S. Navy and sink them. The U.S. Navy indeed loses some vessels in combat around the bloackade, though more are recalled to protect Northern ports. The North also abandons its coastal lodgements in the Confederacy (Cape Hatteras, Port Royal, quite possibly others I’m missing). Plans for further amphibious assaults such as those which led to the capture of Nawlins or the Peninsula Campaign are obviously shelved until the matter of Britain is resolved.

Britain does declare a blockade of Northern ports, and deploys a decent chunk of the Royal Navy to do so. There are some clashes with U.S. naval vessels, largely won by the British. USS Monitor causes some reaction but since the British are not conducting a close blockade, does not accomplish much. There is some occasional exchange of gunfire between British ships and U.S. coastal forts, but Britain also isn’t keen on extending the war by mounting major actions against U.S. cities or naval yards.

Ultimately, the (relatively) cheap costs of the war and low bloodshed thus far means that both sides are able to agree to a ceasefire in mid-April 1862, with a formal peace negotiated a month or two later.

The results? Well, in many areas this leads to short-term pain for the North and short-term gain for the South, but not much long-term change. The North suffers some short-term hardship since they no longer have powder available for a while, are unable to import firearms, can’t get British-quality iron, and so forth. Quite a few Northern merchant vessels are sunk, captured by the Royal Navy, or re-flagged to avoid capture. The North suffers a worse bank run and economic crisis than it had in OTL, with lots of people losing lots of money in the short-term, but confidence is largely restored when peace returns and it’s clear that Britain is not going to recognise the Confederacy.

On the Confederate side, there is a huge rush of confidence initially. Gradual disappointment follows when it becomes clear that even when at war, Britain has no interest in recognising the Confederacy. The Trent War is a war fought for British interests and British honour, not to win Confederate independence. However, the collapse of the blockade means that the Confederacy can trade freely for a while the North and Britain settle their differences.

In military terms, there’s been a pause in U.S. operations against the Confederacy for a few months. With peace, the North is able to resume trade and shipments of war material from Britain, and redeploy its troops back to face the South. The U.S. Navy is somewhat battered, but not completely destroyed. The Confederacy has been freed for a while of some manpower which it needed to defend against coastal incursions, but then the North has also got some further troops which can be redeployed from former coastal lodgements or previously planned amphibious operations.

However, there is one rather large twist: France and its reaction.

Even before the Trent War, the French ambassador to Washington, M. Mercier, had on several occasions proposed to Lord Lyons that the two countries undertake joint action to end the blockade of the Confederacy and/or recognise the Confederacy. By early 1862, Napoleon III was also keen to have the blockade ended, and contemplated recognition of the Confederacy, though he remained reluctant to move without British support.

In this ATL, once Britain goes ahead and declares war on the North, France sends letters of support (which they sent in the lead-up anyway), but also decide to act on their desire to recognise the Confederacy. Napoleon III expects the Trent War to last longer than it will, but more to the point, recognition allows easier trade with the Confederacy in the short-term, and also allows leverage to ensure that the blockade is not restored.

When Britain settles for peace quickly, Napoleon III is surprised and not entirely happy, but expects that the North will now make peace with the Confederacy. He is not prepared to back down and withdraw recognition of the Confederacy. He also believes that the blockade should not be resumed (France really hated the blockade in OTL), and would be prepared to consider intervention in the ACW, alone if necessary, to ensure that the blockade is not reformed.

Of course, it soon becomes clear that the North is not going to recognise the Confederacy. Napoleon III is prepared to go to war if he believes it necessary, though he will offer to mediate between North and South first. Lincoln, of course, won’t accept mediation with rebellious states which the USA does not recognise as sovereign in the first place. Napoleon III won’t rush into war with the North, but he can and will declare any blockade illegal, and any Northern stopping of French-flagged ships will be treated as a casus belli.

If war comes, France is unlikely to send more than token land forces, since Napoleon III is far more interested in Mexico. They may send some military advisors and/or war material. The French Navy is relatively free to operate, though, to break any blockades and act as a fleet in being to prevent the North trying any amphibious operations against the South. Maybe they could try to blockade the North in turn, either all of the east coast or (more likely) the nearer ports to the Confederacy (which they would need to base out of anyway).

France will trade with the Confederacy, and possibly offer loans as well, secured against cotton (or just buy cotton). Some British merchants will probably also trade with the Confederacy, too, since cotton offers a lot of profit to cover moral dilemmas (plus any lingering resentment of the North).

So, what happens next? Does Lincoln press ahead with the blockade and risk French intervention? Does he resume the war without the blockade and just try to beat the Confederacy on land? What are the North’s prospects, either way? The ACW has just become much harder to win for the North, but probably not impossible – the balance of resources is still in their favour.
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