WI Treaty of Amiens

Mrstrategy

Banned
what would happen if the Treaty of Amiens is longer by at least a year or more due to better relationship of Britain and France?
  • better french navy?
  • no Louisiana Purchase ?
  • Spain no angry at France?
 
1) Not significantly so on such short time. French navy had several problems of management and lack of vessels, that couldn't be well resolved without making occupied or sattelized countries participating to the cost. Not that Napoleonian navy was objectively bad, it was the second navy of its time : but then again, there was the Royal Navy way further ahead. Ressource-wize it would have asked a whole freaking lot to even be able to roughly match the basic necessities.

2) Louisiana Purchase is bound to happen at this point : mentioning only quickly the Haitian Revolution was already too far and too much for Napoleon's naval capacities IOTL, its likely loss is only the cherry on the cake of a poor American policy (arguably more coming from geopolitical situation than bad management). Jefferson and most American elite wanted New Orleans, already blockaded it in 1802 and made pretty much crystal clear that they wouldn't mind siding with UK.
At this point, it was about cutting up losses, not some transcontinental policy.

3) Spain was a powder keg waiting to explode. The huge contradictions of an alliance between post-revolutionaries and autocrats, hopes of the Spanish population and rise of nationalism...A French intervention (more or less important, maybe not equivalent to IOTL one) is very likely in the decade.
 
I second Catilina on his assessment. The only turning point in a alt-Peace of Amiens would be Napoléon out of the picture and a team of "continental equilibrists" in power in Paris. With France only focusing to consolidate the Republican regime and the annexed provinces (Southern Netherlands, Rhineland and Savoy), while letting the Dutch go their own way, a more-or-less armed peace could endure for some years, even decades. But the rise of nationalism will trigger a war eventually, be it in Germany, Italy or Spain. Unfortunately these men would never want to upset the planters by keeping the abolition of slavery, so the Saint-Domingue expedition is going on with the loss of the island, while the other French West Indies are going back to slavery with the planters backed by the French army.
 

longsword14

Banned
Though I am not optimistic of Amiens holding out much longer, Napoleon or not, it could happen that the various flashpoints in the treaty could be avoided for some time.
What does Austria try to do ? Any one who has detailed knowledge about the Austrian court and key officials? It could be possible that instead of the coup by Napoleon a more stable regime takes place that would make concessions to the Austrians in Italy ? By Amiens France was in a good position in Europe.
 
IMO, it is not possible to have a longer Amiens treaty with a PoD affecting just the French. You need to make changes in London also - or even primarily; a longer peace before starting war aain actually favored Napoleon-.
 
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