WI: Trastamaras retain Spain, Hapsburgs stay in Germany

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: Before 1900' started by Lost the game, May 13, 2019.

  1. Lost the game Nixon 2020

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    Suppose Infante Juan, Prince of Asturias survived to have children of his own, meaning the Hapsburgs never take Spain. How does this effect the rest of Europe?
     
  2. isabella Well-Known Member

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    The main lines of Trastamaras and Avis will be likely extinct quickly for their level of inbreeding...

    Juan’s first child will be born in early 1498 (can be a girl, likely bride to be for Miguel da Paz, or a son).
    A son of Juan will most likely marry a close relative: Madeleine of Navarre (born in 1494) (great granddaughter of Ferdinand’s half-sister so half-first cousin twice removed?) is the less related (but good only for a boy born before 1500), Isabella of Portugal (born in 1503) or an ATL analogue (daughter of Manuel by a surviving Isabella) is a first cousin and Eleanor of Austria (born 1498) is a double first cousin. Germaine of Foix is way too old (and without Philip a match who Ferdinand will never take in consideration) and I can not see Ferdinand happy with a French daughter-in-law... England is not good enough (plus said princess will be a daughter of Catalina so another first cousin)...
    In OTL both Isabella (of Portugal, wife of Karl V) and Catalina (of Austria-Spain, wife of John III) had a terrible obstetric history (and here will be most likely the same) and the intermarriage of their children in the next generation had still worst results so the chances who Habsburg (or someone else but I will put my money on them) will end inheriting Spain-Portugal in a couple of generations are pretty high...

    In any case the biggest winner of a survival of Juan are the Habsburg themselves in primis, followed by Netherlands and HRE/Germany.
     
  3. Kellan Sullivan Well-Known Member

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    The English could offer Mary Tudor (she'd only be two years older than a boy born in 1497). It mucks out the gene pool some. Hell, they were willing to offer her for Karl V who was four years younger and then Louis XII who was more than thirty years older. Two years is a sinch. It might need for Catalina to wed elsewhere though when she's widowed (assuming all things Tudor still go as OTL) - with Eleonore of Austria wedding Henry, Mary wedding the Prince of the Asturias and Catalina marrying somebody else.
     
  4. ramones1986 Grumpy and Lazy

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  5. isabella Well-Known Member

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    Here a wedding between Eleanor and Henry VIII will be out of question (as would be a totally different alliance from the one with Spain and here Catalina will keep her value intact)... Mary Tudor sr is not an interesting match for the heir of Spain, not when the alternatives are Navarre, Portugal or Burgundy...
     
  6. Kellan Sullivan Well-Known Member

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    I don't agree. But I DO understand your argument. Catalina's value will still fall the minute her mom dies (she's the sister to a sovereign, who has more age appropriate daughters for Henry to wed should London so choose).

    Mary Tudor I simply proposed as a "less inbred" alternative to the others. Eleonore is probably the most likely (and least inbred) alternative - since the d'Albrets are likewise going to be less favourable than their Foix cousins if Charles VIII still dies as OTL. Plus, a Navarrese infanta is the financially poorest of the three options (Burgundy, Portugal and Navarre). Although a Navarrese betrothal might be brokered in Fernando's lifetime, I don't really see it happening, since it likely goes bye-bye the first time Aragon goes to war with France between 1497 (Juan's survival) and the marriage taking place.

    Isabella of Portugal (if she's still the same person as OTL) refused to marry anyone BESIDES Karl V (and its hardly as though a Portuguese-Burgundian match was anything new). Plus Eleonore would have a few years on Isabella.
     
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  7. alexmilman Well-Known Member

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    Conflicts of interests:
    France: wants Naples and and, starting with Louis XII, Milan; plus there is an ongoing issue of the Burgundian Inheritance with the Hapsburgs.
    Spain: Aragon also has a claim to Naples.
    Hapsburgs: settling of the Burgundian Inheritance and Max is married to Sforza.

    So the conflicts are the same and the main difference is that if conflict over Naples is settled (even if it is lost), then France can put Spain out of the picture because there is no reason for whoever is ruling Spain to fight for the Hapsburg's interests. I practical terms it means that the imperial component of the OTL conflict is severely handicapped by an absence of the Spanish money (even prior to conquest of Mexico) and, most important, troops. Max and his successor(s) can't finance a prolonged war with France and don't have enough of high quality troops in the HRE: in OTL it took combination of Spanish and German troops (and money) to achieve a victory in a series of wars lasting almost 4 decades; without Spain HRE is bankrupt and out of troops much earlier and France has a good chance to retain Milan and perhaps get some pieces of the Burgundian Inheritance as well (even in OTL it got Metz, Toul, and Verdun).

    Spain is not bankrupt (or at least not as bankrupt as in OTL) and may concentrate on fighting Muslims in the Norther Africa: it would have resources to retain conquests there.

    Hapsburgs end up with the Netherlands trimmed of some of the French-speaking parts (Artois, etc.). Absence of the Spanish backup most probably forces a more tolerant policy in the Netherlands so there may be no rebellion and a resulting 80YW. But with the Netherlands in their possession Hapsburgs became a serious naval factor both in trade and colonial activities which almost inevitably leads to a conflict with the existing maritime powers, Spain and Portugal, and later with England as well.

    Questions:

    Would the "seagoing" Hapsburgs get into a conflict with Spain and Portugal over the colonial possessions?

    Or later, when England rises as a maritime power, would the Netherlands backed by the Hapsburg resources be in a better position than in OTL both against the English and against British-French alliance?

    What France is going to do with Milan and Genoa in a long run?
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2019
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  8. Janprimus Well-Known Member

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    Isabella of Portugal was only a good option for OTL Charles V, because he was also king of the Crowns of Castille and Aragon. Without the Iberian inheritance, Habsburg Austria-Burgundy would prefer a match with Mary Tudor the Elder or of course and arguably more Anne of Bohemia & Hungary. Isabella of Portugal ITTL would be at best, the option, if all the preferred options fail.
     
  9. Janprimus Well-Known Member

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    Conflict, not so much? Sure Spain will not fight for a Habsburg Milan, but a restored Sforza Milan would be preferred by Spain over a French or Habsburg Milan. You're also forgetting, that the former Burgundian Netherlands were actually a place, where OTL Charles V still got plenty revenues from. 'Burgundy' with Flanders, Brabant and Holland was still one of the wealthiest places in Europe; and though often reluctant to pay for ducal ambitions, they will be very willing to pay up to counter French aggression.


    IMHO ITTL the Habsburgs would just back an ATL VOC and other trading companies, however with full HRE as a resource, settler colonies become a lot more viable. There will be times Austria-Burgundy will join France and England and seize Spanish or Portuguese colonies or claims, though once an established colonial power, they may want to compensated with a few of them as an ally of Spain and/or Portugal. Though even before that, if a privately owned Company, happens to further the glory of the empire and dynasty, well then they won't object loudly.
    As for the trimmed Francophone parts, IMHO Franche Comté would be first to go, whereas Artois, like Hainaut, Namur and Luxembourg were seen as a part of the XVII Netherlands. The loss of Franche Comté may frustrate the monarch, well the wealthy Estates General of the Netherlands will OTOH pay for the defence of Artois.
     
  10. alexmilman Well-Known Member

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    [ QUOTE="Janprimus, post: 18913987, member: 13023"]

    Conflict, not so much? Sure Spain will not fight for a Habsburg Milan, but a restored Sforza Milan would be preferred by Spain over a French or Habsburg Milan. [/QUOTE]

    Restored Sforza would be preferable but not up to a degree warranting participation in a major war, especially taking into an account that Sforza would be an imperial puppet.

    [ QUOTE="Janprimus, post: 18913987, member: 13023"]You're also forgetting, that the former Burgundian Netherlands were actually a place, where OTL Charles V still got plenty revenues from. 'Burgundy' with Flanders, Brabant and Holland was still one of the wealthiest places in Europe; and though often reluctant to pay for ducal ambitions, they will be very willing to pay up to counter French aggression.[/QUOTE]

    I'm not forgetting about the Netherlands. They had been one of the richest places in Europe but it does not mean that their ruler could tax them at will: his rights had been severely limited and as far as Charles V was involved his main income was from the Crown of Castile: in 1520 the total (including income fro m the Indies) was 1.477M Spanish ducats and in 1540 - 2.282M. OTOH, all incomes from Hapsburg Inheritance (mostly Netherlands) was .490M in 1520 and .735M in 1540 (http://markgreengrass.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Appendix-23.pdf).

    Now, here is a simple logic for you: if X does not have enough money from Income Source 1 + Income Source 2 then how is he in a better position when deprived of Income Source 1 which is 3 times greater than Income Source 2? Not to mention that the French ambitions at that time had been extending only to the French part of the Burgundian Inheritance, aka, had nothing to do with Holland and even Brabant so why would other provinces suddenly start suffering from the extensive willingness to subsidize a war? They did not in OTL during the war of 1551 - 59 even if the French were invading the Low Countries. Of course, nobility of the Low Countries took an active part in a fighting and complained that they were financially ruined on a royal service. To continue war Charles had to borrow money at 43 percent interest from Fugger and Welser banking families instead of getting them as subsidies from the enthusiastic provinces threatened by the French invasion.

    What is different for Spain is that its profitable wool trade with the Netherlands is not interrupted.

    Then, of course, goes issue of the "cadres": in OTL Spanish troops had been heavily engaged in fighting French in the Netherlands and elsewhere along the French Northern border. In that AH Hapsburgs can only rely upon the troops recruited in Germany (which, among other things, were much less reliable than the Spaniards). Again, Source 1 + Source 2 is bigger than just Source 2. Actually, it is a little bit more complicated because in OTL Spain did extensive recruitment in Italy. This source is also unavailable to the Hapsburgs.

    [ QUOTE="Janprimus, post: 18913987, member: 13023"]
    IMHO ITTL the Habsburgs would just back an ATL VOC and other trading companies, however with full HRE as a resource, [/QUOTE]

    I think that you more than a little bit confused: HRE was not a single state and its full resources are irrelevant in that context. The company could have backup of the Hapsburg-held lands. Taking into an account how things were done at that time, a private Netherlands-based company most probably would resist inclusion of the foreigners (aka, people from other Hapsburg territories). The Hapsburgs would need to build a navy of their own, providing they had enough brains and could squeeze enough money from their subjects (this would be a fundamental task in an absence of a direct danger), to protect the trade interests of the Provinces: IIRC, during the 1st Anglo-Dutch War the Dutch had to arm the merchant ships to confront the English navy with some degree of success. The main difference would be in the case of the Franco-English coalition (as happened in OTL): the Hapsburgs would have to send an army to defend the Netherlands and/or engage French elsewhere, perhaps on the Rhine.


    [ QUOTE="Janprimus, post: 18913987, member: 13023"]
    settler colonies become a lot more viable. There will be times Austria-Burgundy will join France and England and seize Spanish or Portuguese colonies [/QUOTE]

    In OTL, the Dutch and Brits came to fight with each other with French eventually joining the fun. Pattern would be probably more or less the same because the colonies were not as important and profitable as trade.
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2019
  11. krieger Well-Known Member

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    I'm afraid that Isabella wouldn't have a chance to marry Karl ITTL. If Habsburgs don't have Spanish inheritance to worry about, Karl is too valuable as a husband of Anne of Bohemia-Hungary, OTL wife of Ferdinand. ITTL Max can't wed a younger grandson to her. And the wedding is extremely (and will be even more ITTL) important to Max, because after childless Lajos II, Anne was the one to inherit Hungary and Bohemia.
     
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  12. Superninja76 Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps not a sforza restoration, but the spaniards could support another claimant? I recall that wittelsbach-landshut had some visconti blood, and the house of wittelsbach is a fairly viable option to counter habsburg strength. Could be worth supporting!
     
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  13. kasumigenx Well-Known Member

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    The Bavarians could also claim the Margraviate of Verona from Venice.
     
  14. Ivan Lupo Well-Known Member

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    Would a Portuguese/Navarese marriage be likely as an alliance to stave off the newly powerful Spain comprised of Castile and Aragon? I have to imagine if TTL Isabel of Portugal doesn't get to marry Charles V (provided his ascension to the Imperial throne still happens) as most in here are arguing that Charles would marry Anne of Bohemia & Hungary instead, wouldn't Isabel likely be used to perhaps make an alliance with Navarre, barring any other options?
     
  15. Janprimus Well-Known Member

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    The Habsburgs like the Trastamaras are likely in an alliance with a number of Italian states, including the Papacy. A restoration of the Status Quo ante Bellum seems more likely, than to come up with a whole new claimant, since that will probably have the broadest support. Neither the Trastamaras nor the Habsburgs want France in Milan, but to drive them out, they will more or less have to stay allied. Both are in weaker state, there, than OTL, because of ITTL there's a lot less synergy.

    @alexmilman: I'm not confused, I know, that the HRE was loosely federated monarchy. Fact still stands, that ITTL a Habsburg VOC could profit more from the resources of the HRE than the OTL Dutch VOC. The Emperor and the Empire could and did make laws, so setting up Imperial legislation (Imperial Charter colonies), which will help TTL VOC is not unlikely. Another resource, which the Dutch OTL lacked was having enough people for settler colonies, this could be solved by staying a part of the HRE. In that sense, it could profit from the HRE.
    In terms of the more profitable colonies, which produce spices, coffee, sugar cane etc., that I agree, won't change much. Except for the fact, that ITTL the Habsburgs domains and admittedly indirectly the HRE could help to compete a bit longer than IOTL and prevent OTL's steep decline (if that happens I expect it to be a bit more gradual), since ITTL they will have more manpower.
    Another factor for the Low Countries, France and England ITTL, is that Spain and Portugal probably are a bit stronger too ITTL, though they won't be able to stop Dutch, French or English ventures everywhere. Ultimately England still has the advantage of being on an island and thus also ITTL can afford to spend more on their navy and less on their army, than any of the other European competitors could, which were based on the continent. Ultimately England is still in good position to end up as the dominant colonial power, though perhaps a bit less dominant than IOTL, since others are a bit better off as well.
     
  16. alexmilman Well-Known Member

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    The problem was in a fact that both Hapsburgs (through Sforza) and French (through Visconti) already had that claim and Wittelsbach was, comparing to them, a small potato. For his candidacy to get traction Spain would need to get into what would become a three way war on his side. Would not be too much of a ROI to justify the trouble.
     
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  17. alexmilman Well-Known Member

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    The problem is that Trastamaras do not want Hapsburgs in Milan either so it is a prudent policy for Trastamaras not to stick their neck out for the sake of the Hapsburgs. They can, just as the Italian states did, shift their support from one party to another based upon the immediate interests (either to contain somebody's success or to side with a winning side).

    @alexmilman: I'm not confused, I know, that the HRE was loosely federated monarchy. Fact still stands, that ITTL a Habsburg VOC could profit more from the resources of the HRE than the OTL Dutch VOC. The Emperor and the Empire could and did make laws, so setting up Imperial legislation (Imperial Charter colonies), which will help TTL VOC is not unlikely. [/QUOTE]

    It is not unlikely as in "not completely impossible" but you should keep in mind that people of that time tended to think locally and for the Dutch all other entities within Hapsburg's possessions, not to mention the HRE in general are foreigners. As far as the trade is involved, they are either irrelevant or the competitors infringing upon the Dutch profits and the same goes for settling the colonies.

    An emperor can write whatever colonial charter he wants but due to the fact that the Dutch are pretty much the only ones having a merchant fleet and doing overseas trade this charter is pretty much a worthless piece of paper (or parchment).

    The only meaningful action in that situation is construction of the imperial navy but the only person who figured this out was Wallenstein (which was well after our PoD) and he faced a fierce resistance from the Hanseatic cities. Then, again, who would finance such an enterprise? Hardly the Dutch until they got in war with England (which is, again, faraway). Why would the HRE states contribute if they don't have a vested interest? Why would Bohemian Estates agree to pay for it if they are far away from any sea (except in Shakespearean geography with which they are not familiar)?

    Why would the Dutch enjoy a perspective of having their colony settled by, say Czechs? Even if the Dutch are handling all transportation (and charging for it) some of the profits still goes in a ...er... "wrong way". Or why do you expect them to stick to the Spanish/British style of a colonialism instead of sticking to the trade bases and relatively small settlements in the areas of expected profit?

    The only meaningful change is to have the whole thing into Hapsburg enterprise (not HRE) before extensive Dutch maritime trade really started but this is hard to accomplish because the Dutch are the only ones who among the Hapsburg subjects who is doing it or has an access to the Atlantic coast. There would be a need in a big Hapsburg (and other non-Dutch) investment when the company is created and it is much better if there is more than one company. Overseas conquests should happen in the name of the Hapsburgs, etc. Then you can expand the base of an enterprise making it less Dutch. Still, it should be strictly Hapsburg. Personally, I don't think that the schema could be realistically implemented even if just because of the prevailing contemporary mentalities.

    Colonial competition is still a matter of future. In OTL the Dutch extended their trade routes beyond the Northern Europe into the Mediterranean markets and Levant only in 1580s and to Brazil and Dutch Gold Coast of Africa in 1590s. The 1st ships of Compagnie van Verre sailed to the spice islands of Maluku in 1596-97, VOC was founded only in 1602 and WIC in 1621.
     
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  18. Janprimus Well-Known Member

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    Firstly, I looked it up and the Habsburg Netherlands in both absolute and relative terms provided OTL with a factor of 2,5 more income than Castille (with roughly half the population). The main loss, would be the direct access to the Spanish military, in fact the Spanish monarch will also be poorer without the Burgundian Inheritance.
    That's not entirely certain, but I already voiced that a Sforza restoration would be the most likely outcome ITTL. No French Milan, which directly can threaten the Habsburg Austrian Hereditary Lands, but no Habsburg duchy of Milan either (that ITTL is only viable if the Habsburgs manage to crush the French and negotiate Milan as a compensation for the French seizing the duchy of Burgundy).

    English colonies weren't all settled by English. Many in the Dutch Cape Colony actually are descended from French Huguenots. Settlers form all across the HRE could move to 'Dutch' Imperial (Habsburg) colonies and gradually end up being assimilated into the already established 'Dutch' colony. ITTL I expect, that Spanish/British style colonialism would be a much more viable option than IOTL. The main focus will still be trade bases and colonies producing profitable crops etc., but unlike OTL there are enough people available for settler colonies too, so I expect a change there.
    Habsburg and HRE were often rather intertwined at this point, a Habsburg Emperor could and probably would use it to help Habsburg/Imperial colonial ventures. A Habsburg enterprise seems unlikely, but they could help with forging continuing companies for certain areas. IOTL the VOC was aimed at the East Indies (Asia) and the WIC was aimed at the West Indies (The Americas). However the VOC, translates in Dutch as 'Vereenigde Oostindische Compagnie 'the United East-Indian Company, various East Indian companies were IOTL actively united by the early Dutch Republic. Provided the Low Countries stay Habsburg, then Dutch will be spread globally in name of the Habsburgs, since as you pointed out, they are the ones most involved in colonial ventures.
     
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  19. isabella Well-Known Member

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    @alexmilman @Janprimus: A Habsburg Milan is plausible and possible only after the extinction of the Sforza’s male line (or main line aka the legitimate offspring of Ludovico Il Moro, who received the Imperial investiture). If that line live then Habsburg will support their claim on Milan, if that line die the Emperor will be free to name anyone he wish as new Duke of Milan. If the Sforzas get extinct as OTL and the Emperor will assign Milan to his heir or another close relative Spain will most likely still support them in Milan as Austrians are relatives and have zero claim and/or interest on Naples, unlike the French so for Spanish interest an Habsburg Milan is at least 10 times better than a French Milan...

    Catalina’s position as bride of Henry VIII here is safe, instead, as her brother’s succession will not be signed by the same OTL conflicts between Ferdinand and Philip. Plus without the death of Juan (and maybe that of Isabella but I see her quite unwilling to survive) is likely who Isabella of Castile’s death will be delayed (and the wedding between Henry and Catalina is more or less scheduled for July 1505).
    Sister of a King who has good relations with his father, has not daughters old enough for Henry and zero interest to replace his sister (as Juan III’s succession in Castile do not sign a breakup of the alliance with Aragon unlike OTL as Ferdinand here will not remarry) will consent to Catalina’s wedding to proceed without delays.

    Isabella of Portugal OTL wanted to marry Karl V because he WAS the King of Spain, so here her chosen husband will be Juan’s son not Karl V (she was interested in Spain, not Germany or Burgundy and had never met Karl before marrying him so..). Plus Eleanor is a double first cousin of Juan’s children while Isabella a simple first cousin. Add to that the fact who Manuel was a friend and ally of Ferdinand while Philip’s positions were often too pro-France (and you can be sure who that would not make him friends in Castile&Aragon, his own sister included) and you see why Isabella win over Eleanor (who instead has very good chance to marry either Sigismund I of Poland or Louis XII).

    The point about Madeleine of Navarre is who she had a pretty good chance of inheriting Navarre (you need only the future Henry II to die and we are talking about Ferdinand) and was already in the custody of Ferdinand of Aragon so you need only her survival. If that is not possible then go for the best alliance possible aka Portugal...

    My problem with Anne of Bohemia and Hungary is who OTL Karl refuted to marry her and pursued matches strictly in Burgundian interest (France and England) and I can not see things going differently ATL as a surviving Philip also will not let his father choosing the wife for his heir... So Anne will most likely still end marrying Maximilian jr (aka ATL Ferdinand who here will not be born in Spain and so will not be named and raised by his maternal grandfather) and not Karl.
     
    Last edited: May 15, 2019
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  20. WunWun :^)

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    This is simply wrong.
    You should not project current borders and ideas around identity onto history. The Dutch of those times saw themselves as Germans, something that remains until the late 19th century, when Dutch was still seen as lower German (nederduytsch). The Wilhelmus has a line referring to the german ancestry (Ben ik van duytschen bloed) and Erasmus wrote about himself as a German (letter 12nn somewhere, don't know the exact number).

    The VOC recruited all over the north German and Scandinavian coasts. Hugenots settled en masse in the cape colony.

    I can keep going, but I think it's clear: the Dutch saw themselves (and we're economically) an integral part of the HRE. They wouldn't have a problem with Czechs either.
     
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