I did some research based on the statistics at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1912_United_States_presidential_election what would happen if TR's vote had gone 70% for Taft, 20% for Wilson, and 10% not voting or voting for Debs. That's a 3.5-1 advantage for Taft--something I think is way more than Taft would actually get. Nevertheless, this would result in Wilson's carrying such key states as New York, New Jersey, Indiana, Taft's own state of Ohio, and Wisconsin as well as the South and border states of course. This would be enough for a clear Electoral College majority.