WI: Toyotomi victory at Osaka

What are the chances of the Toyotomi to win against the Tokugawa in the siege of Osaka? What are the best possible ways to do it? And how will it change Japanese history?
 
(Oh dear, I'm not particularly sure if any of us is that much experts on medieval Japanese history. You'll be extremely lucky if you get a proper response.)

Will read on it a bit. Expect an answer in a few minutes.

EDIT: My answer is that the Toyotomi clan was lost once Hideyoshi died. The young Hideyori needs to defeat all the other powerful factions or entice them to alliances, but Tokugawa just needs to defeat Toyotomi. It doesn't really seem either that the battles were neck-to-neck .
 
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A victory (possible but unlikely) coupled with the death of Tokugawa Ieysu the next year and many still potent Tozama daiymo (the Shimazu come to mind) capable of exploiting any cracks in the still young Shogunate might lead to renewed civil war or at least a revolt.

This might not mean the Toyotomi end up on top but it would be interesting.
 
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