WI: Total Nationalist victory in the Chinese Civil War - Effects on Asia and the Cold War?

Will KMT China end up better than OTL's PRC?


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How does factionalism go away after a KMT victory? (And how the KMT wins affects a lot). Chiang was dealing with warlords up until he was expelled from the mainland.
Chiang was dealing with warlords up to the end because his power depended on working with them from the beginning, but this situation was being rectified gradually as the KMT built up central state institutions and as China's economy improved. The 8 years of war with Japan hindered much of the progress that was made from 1928 to 1937 -- with a delayed or nonexistent Japanese invasion, the influence of military factions would have abated further.
 
Chiang has proven when given breathing room (Northern Expeditions), he can smush the warlords easily enough and co-opt the survivors. Once the Japanese are defeated, and Mao is pre-ordained to lose (via OP fiat), it's just a matter of time for Chiang to properly unify the country under the KMT banner and kill/exile/cow the remaining warlords and major factions that would oppose future reforms.

I'd give Chiang 5 more years post Reunification Victory, to get shit in order (most important is squaring the army away, centralizing army pay, thus making sure its loyal), and then start on some major reforms. Once a coupla major reforms are out of the way, he'll start liberalizing the government as popular pressures from the people grow as a way to mollify them. With pressure from the US (giving ample gibs) to act a certain way, i dont see Chiang unleashing his loyalist armies to crackdown on the middle class/intelligentsia who likely would be the 1st coupla waves of protesters. I can see him exile the worst of the ringleaders to the US if they prove to be too much of a pain in the ass to local stability. I can see Chiang slowly give way to Democracy as he gets older and sees his nation becoming more cohesive, stronger, and able to stand on its own. China will then go into a full blown Democracy with his son stepping down as military head and assuming a major role in civilian politics, many other political generals and their families will follow suit, the more apolitical generals will stay on, thus mirroring a tradition like their close ally the US.

Heck after Reunification, if Chiang was feeling particularly magnaminous instead of mass executions of the Communist rank and file (key leadership of course are getting shot/hanged) he'd give em a choice to renounce the CCP and swear oath of loyalty to China, or exile to the USSR. This could show how merciful Chiang is, thus potentially making future fanatical insurgencies less likely, while also giving the Soviets a sop to show how theyre not totally hostile to it and can come to a deal in the future. Basically once China becomes stronger they'll take back the exiles as a way to build up relations. Soviets in the meantime can use the exiled commies to build up their Far Eastern possessions, to defend against any future threat on those borders (why would China give us manpower to fight against them?). From Chiang's PoV best to get these troublemakers out of the way for now, without gaining massive ire from the USSR (mass killing commies) and USA (mass killing POWs). Extra LOLs for allowing a Socialist party to spring up later on when China is democratizing. When re-accepting exiles and their families in the future they're to join the Socialist party and any craziness/insurgency led by these exiles will make the Socialists look REAL bad discrediting them. Thus the Socialists would doing their utmost to make sure these communists dont do anything crazy and if THEY purge the commies on their own.... TROLOLOLOLO

With US support the Chinese economy will rapidly rebuild after the turmoil of the 1st coupla major reforms (land reform being the doozy of course), and China will slowly lurch ahead and be a coupla ticks below OTL SKorea in GDP. Sadly for the rest of the Asian continent, their own developments will be retarded compared to OTL due to US pouring their efforts into propping a friendly China up instead of containing it. Japan, SKorea both taking the biggest shellackings. SE Asia might not be as majorly negatively impacted due to being less of a hellscape via constant wars. Would be interesting to see how long France will try to hold Indo-China though. I dont see KMT China interfering there much as they want to keep the Euros as friendly to them as possible to encourage future investments.

I personally see China well on its way to being a Superpower able to challenge the US economically by 2000s.
 
With China going nationalist in this scenario, to what degree would things like manufacturing be outsourced to China compared to OTL and if less which other countries would end up becoming alternative outsource locations?
The modern Chinese economic boom required free trade agreements and widespread use of shipping containers so I can't see them reaching our timeline's levels much earlier, they're still going to develop fairly heavily though like the Asian Tigers did so as you say they run the risk of pricing themselves out of the boom ahead of time. My guess is that it depends on how far inland the post-war development spreads - if it's kept mostly to the coastal regions then that still leaves the inland ones as potential cheap development sites later on, if it's already spread out and raised prices then some other country likely becomes the winner. India is a good possibility if you can get them to liberalise a bit sooner, Africa would seem to be the other alternative if you can get the infrastructure set up.


No. They don't have supplies or bases with a Nationalist China.
IIRC whilst they turned down the idea of taking over influence of Vietnam as was proposed the KMT weren't exactly kindly disposed towards the colonial powers. It might not be on the same scale but are we sure that a blind eye might not be turned towards any 'rogue elements' that carried out cross-border trade to see the French eventually sent packing?


And how this would have affected Hong Kong.
Well Hong Kong thrived thanks to the industrialists from places like Shanghai being forced to relocate, the waves of refugees providing cheap labour, and it being an island of stability in a sea of chaos. Providing that the KMT don't go too central government planning or completely fuck up these factors don't really occur, Hong Kong will still develop but it won't be as meteoric having to compete with a number of rivals.


And... alright, so Tibet is very likely still annexed into the ROC. But what happens to the Dalai Lama? Would he still flee to India or would he negotiate some sort of agreement with Nanjing? (i.e. - Nominally autonomous Tibet ceremonially administered by the Dalai Lama)
My guess is some form of linguistic autonomy - government functions offered in both languages, a very limited local autonomy, the Dalai Lama gets to stay as head of the religious orders providing that he stays out of the political sphere. The monasteries are forced to sell off land to the government in return for bonds, they in turn sell it on to local peasants at cheap repayment rates.
 
but are we sure that a blind eye might not be turned towards any 'rogue elements' that carried out cross-border trade to see the French eventually sent packing?
IF the insurgency is not lead by communists or has a large communist influence then yes but otherwise no
 

PhilippeO

Banned
even if Chiang can successfully dealt with warlord, there no guarantee he can successfully dealt with landlords (who spread out in every village, and had enormous local power) or dealt with Industrial Magnate (who control considerable state income and can influence things). China might jump to modern institution (with de facto local federalism, corruption everywhere, and dominance of oligarchic taobao) without distribution of wealth of opportunity from Mao's great leap and cultural revolution. A massive Indonesia or Philippines which corruption and oligarchy strangle economic growth.
 
I read a timeline that convincingly had Chiang assist the Vietnamese as part of an "anti imperialist" movement.

Chiang that is more secure doesn't need to be as pro western. Chiang might play a balancing act between the USSR and USA for free goodies.
Do you know what the timeline was called? It sounds like an interesting scenario
 
even if Chiang can successfully dealt with warlord, there no guarantee he can successfully dealt with landlords (who spread out in every village, and had enormous local power) or dealt with Industrial Magnate (who control considerable state income and can influence things). China might jump to modern institution (with de facto local federalism, corruption everywhere, and dominance of oligarchic taobao) without distribution of wealth of opportunity from Mao's great leap and cultural revolution. A massive Indonesia or Philippines which corruption and oligarchy strangle economic growth.

As long as Chiang has the loyalty of the army (Centralizing Army Payroll) and no other major warlords or hostile army trying to kick down its sandcastle (IJA), the landlords on their own cant do shit unless they want to be 1st in line to get their lands and possessions jacked.

The smart landlords will bow to central authority and hope to get on Chiangs good side. The worst/dumbest of the lot will be thrown to the masses as a sop. The really corrupt officials, if theyre smart, will get the hell out of dodge ASAP, or they too will be thrown to the masses.

It's either play ball with the central government or get fucked by the army/peasantry. During the massive chaos and upheaval of WWII/Chinese Civil War, Chiang couldnt do crap to exert his authority, assuming OP fiat that the commies go down after the Imp Japs lose, Chiang will be the last warlord standing and his will, will shape how China goes.

It's easy to be a despot and centralize power when youre the last dude standing holding a gun. Just like Mao and the commies did with their massive centralization pushes. I personally dont think that what the ChiComs after the Civil War was a special Commie ability in forcing literacy and a single language on the population and other centralizing measures. They were just the last dudes standing with all the guns after the KMT boogied out of town.
 
Also occured to me, would Chiang try to build a Cult of Personality in vein of Mao? Granted it might end up tamer than what China got OTL (particularly during the Cultural Revolution), but would the KMT get it's own "Blue Guards" and other stuff?

What does Chinese culture look like in this scenario? More traditional? And will there be a massive Triad issue in the port cities?
 
No Korean War has big implications for Japan’s economic boom, apparently the war contracts provided a massive stimulus to its economy. I read once on here that apparently Toyota was on the brink of bankruptcy in 1950 but was saved by war contracts. Japan will still rise into a major economy ITTL but it will be delayed by around 10-15 years.
 
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