WI: Total French defeat in the War of the Spanish Succession

IOTL France was on the brink of total collapse by the allied forces. Then the anti-French Whigs were replaced by the anti-Habsburg Tories in the 1710 election. To the shock of their allies, they signed a separate, generous peace with the French. The Dutch and Habsburgs tried to continue the war but without British subsidies lost battle after battle. They eventually accepted the reality and agreed similar peace terms.

But what if some unrelated issue or scandal devastates the Tory campaign and the Whigs are returned to power, proceeding to complete French collapse. How bad can the peace terms get for Paris? What does this mean for future European alliances?
 
IOTL France was on the brink of total collapse by the allied forces. Then the anti-French Whigs were replaced by the anti-Habsburg Tories in the 1710 election. To the shock of their allies, they signed a separate, generous peace with the French. The Dutch and Habsburgs tried to continue the war but without British subsidies lost battle after battle. They eventually accepted the reality and agreed similar peace terms.

The British didn't sign peace with France until 1713, and by that time France had reconquered almost all the towns in the north it had lost.
 
Do the British want an unconditional victory? "Oh yay, we replaced the Bourbon threat with a Habsburg Spain and Austria... Wait. Shit."
 
Because the Tories massively cut war spending once in power.

More importantly they convinced the Queen to sack Marlborough at the end of 1711, and withdrew the British contingent of the allied army in northern France mid-campaign, which allowed Villars to beat Eugene at Denain. To change the outcome you'd really need two PoDs:

1. Sarah Marlborough exercises a bit of tact (possibly ASB), doesn't piss off Anne, and is able to persuade the Queen to keep Marlborough in his posts.

2. Joseph I doesn't die young, removing the problem of Charles uniting the Hapsburg lands under a single monarch.
 
More importantly they convinced the Queen to sack Marlborough at the end of 1711, and withdrew the British contingent of the allied army in northern France mid-campaign, which allowed Villars to beat Eugene at Denain. To change the outcome you'd really need two PoDs:

1. Sarah Marlborough exercises a bit of tact (possibly ASB), doesn't piss off Anne, and is able to persuade the Queen to keep Marlborough in his posts.

2. Joseph I doesn't die young, removing the problem of Charles uniting the Hapsburg lands under a single monarch.
I think the second point highlights that Parliament will swing toward being against a united Habsburg group and thus previously defeated France is ripe for peace/alliance.
 
I think the second point highlights that Parliament will swing toward being against a united Habsburg group and thus previously defeated France is ripe for peace/alliance.

This would be the most probable outcome: having any monstrosity would not be in the British interests.
 
I don't see a total austrian victory happening. If you want a total french defeat, don't have joseph ferdinand von bayern die as a child, and inherit the throne. He's the only legitimate heir, and anyone who challenges his position is, even with him being a child, tangle with not only an alliance, but a united spain.
 
As for peace terms, during the NYW and WotSS a goal of the Grand Coalition was to reduce France to its 1659 borders, but if the war is going well enough they could push for the 1648 borders instead. The Austrians even wanted the Three Bishoprics. If Joseph is dead then either Austria's allies are going to leave Philip on the throne, push for Victor Amadeus as a compromise candidate, or demand huge concessions from Austria.
 
As for peace terms, during the NYW and WotSS a goal of the Grand Coalition was to reduce France to its 1659 borders, but if the war is going well enough they could push for the 1648 borders instead. The Austrians even wanted the Three Bishoprics. If Joseph is dead then either Austria's allies are going to leave Philip on the throne, push for Victor Amadeus as a compromise candidate, or demand huge concessions from Austria.

At one point (pre-Malplaquet) Louis XIV offered to return to the 1648 borders, but the Coalition demanded that he declare war on his grandson and that was too much for him to take, so the war continued.
 
More importantly they convinced the Queen to sack Marlborough at the end of 1711, and withdrew the British contingent of the allied army in northern France mid-campaign, which allowed Villars to beat Eugene at Denain. To change the outcome you'd really need two PoDs:

1. Sarah Marlborough exercises a bit of tact (possibly ASB), doesn't piss off Anne, and is able to persuade the Queen to keep Marlborough in his posts.

2. Joseph I doesn't die young, removing the problem of Charles uniting the Hapsburg lands under a single monarch.
Joseph’s death is not the true problem... A better POD would be having his son surviving and/or one or both of his daughters born as male here... He do not need to live longer but only to left male heirs
 
I don't see a total austrian victory happening. If you want a total french defeat, don't have joseph ferdinand von bayern die as a child, and inherit the throne. He's the only legitimate heir, and anyone who challenges his position is, even with him being a child, tangle with not only an alliance, but a united spain.
With Joseph Ferdinand is pretty unlikely you can have any kind of war...
And total Austrian victory would be possible, specially if Charles II had not changed his will in his latest months (as after Joseph Ferdinad’s death Charles had named Archduke Charles as heir then changed to Philip of Anjou shortly before dying)
 
With Joseph Ferdinand is pretty unlikely you can have any kind of war...
And total Austrian victory would be possible, specially if Charles II had not changed his will in his latest months (as after Joseph Ferdinad’s death Charles had named Archduke Charles as heir then changed to Philip of Anjou shortly before dying)
Austria was pretty set on getting most, or all, of the Spanish empire. There were suspicions that they were behind the death of Joseph Ferdinand. At the same time, Louis XIV was known for negotiating via diplomacy while prepping for war. He supposedly had a partition deal in place after JF died, and then worked to get his son named the sole heir. Don't be so sure that a peaceful transition is such a sure thing. With a third claimant in the picture, though, there are more options for diplomatic/military alliances.

Neither France nor England wants to see Austria get the entire inheritance. by itself, Austria has no means for taking all the pieces of the pie. If Charles is named heir, France insists on a split, and England will sit on the sideline, watching France win or Austria back down. Being named heir means little in regards to Austria getting total victory. It might even work in France's favor if it allows France to knock off one of the major OTL alliance partner and then do a grab for it all, or most of it.

OTL was the best chance for total French defeat. As seen, though, the Alliance pushed for too much, and missed the opportunity. Had they not pushed for too much, it wouldn't have been total victory.
 
Do the British want an unconditional victory? "Oh yay, we replaced the Bourbon threat with a Habsburg Spain and Austria... Wait. Shit."

The thing is this is a partisan split in Britain. The Whigs genuinely preferred a Habsburg Spain and Austria than allowing the French to get back in the game.
 
I don't see a total austrian victory happening. If you want a total french defeat, don't have joseph ferdinand von bayern die as a child, and inherit the throne. He's the only legitimate heir, and anyone who challenges his position is, even with him being a child, tangle with not only an alliance, but a united spain.
But this would probably eliminate the whole issue because Bavarian candidate was, IIRC, acceptable to all (with some adjustments)
 
The thing is this is a partisan split in Britain. The Whigs genuinely preferred a Habsburg Spain and Austria than allowing the French to get back in the game.
Back in the game: France was THE game. Top dog. Everyone had to join together to knock down France. Spain was the one looking to get back in the game after decades of incompetence/decline.

Habsburg Spain and Austria (not in union) was status quo. Austria wanted the whole pie. England wanted the Spanish empire broken up, and as long as France stayed out of the Netherlands, was open to various ways to split it up. They preferred France in Italy. Louis practically forced England into war by attempting to grab all and denying English economic interests. Without Louis being so hamfisted bellicose, the Whigs would have had a hard time mustering the support for war. Once the war is underway, and at the POD point, it was the Whigs turn to be hamfisted bellicose and go for it all.

You have to butterfly Joseph's death in 1711, or the whole thing starts up all over again. No one, including the Whigs, is going to allow a union of Austria/Spain.

for the sake of argument, assume the Whigs get their way, and France is humbled. Philip is ousted in Spain. England still doesn't want the Spanish empire left intact. Look for Savoy to make big gains in Italy, though it is doubtful Austria is going to give up Milan.



France is now free, once they recover, to attempt to take Spanish colonial possessions in future conflicts. France, as a humbled power, is going to cozy up to Britain, and Britain will likely cozy up to France as a balance of power. Will Charles unify/centralize Spain, or just muddle along as he did in Austria? Will there be anything resembling Bourbon reforms? Does Joseph (presuming he lives) strengthen Austria with his reforms? Elizabeth Farnese becomes just a footnote in history.
 
There's also the question of what happens to Bavaria. Austria wanted to annex most of it, only returning the north to the Count Palatine. But because France made a comeback Bavaria got its independence back.
 
There's also the question of what happens to Bavaria. Austria wanted to annex most of it, only returning the north to the Count Palatine. But because France made a comeback Bavaria got its independence back.
I suspect that Britain is ultimately going to be sorta fine with Austria getting Bavaria, if Austria and Spain are NOT united.
More generally, the British are not going to care very much about Bavaria at all.
 
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