WI Tories win a majority in 2010 (UK)?

How different would things have gone had Cameron and the Conservatives won a small overall majority in 2010?

First, would Cameron feel compelled to call a Brexit referendum during that term, or is still likely to be something he pledges for a second term?

Without the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, would the next election be held in 2014 or 2015?

How would being out of government affect the Lib Dems? They're likely to still lose some votes, given that some left-of-center anti-Labour protest voters might swing back to Labour to oppose the Tories. But they almost certainly won't crash to just 8 seats.

And would this paradoxically benefit Labour in the 2014/5 election? Might the Tories actually lose their majority in 2015, potentially opening up space for a Labour-led government?
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
LidDem's getting locked out the debates is a good enough PoD, with some more stuff going wrong behind the scenes for Labour.

But if Labour want to swing back, then it'll rely on who's leading it. Ed Miliband? Not going to happen, he was a genuinely bad Leader who failed to work with his cabinet (it's now coming out that his personal relationship broke down with Ed Balls due to not wanting it to become another Blair/Brown), alienated the electorate, refused to acknowledge issues facing British Youths because it was 'too depressing', and only started to resemble a Labour Leader in the last 12 months of his leadership. David Miliband? He's a bit naff, but he'd be able to settle into his role quicker. Ed Balls or Andy Burnham? Balls has the same image issues as Miliband and Burnham is a Burnham. Personally I'd go for someone like Jon Cruddas, but D-Milliband is workable.

For a sense of what the Goverment will look like, with a majority of, say, 330, then it's worth hitting up the Manifesto whilst considering just how badly a job George Osborne did as Chancellor. I won't give an economic prediction because I'm not great at those, but I'm going to say Austerity to the hilt.

Gay Marriage is still likely to get passed through, though might take a bit longer.

The question of the next election comes down to how long Cameron can hold out. Generally weaker Governments go the whole 5 Years or wait until they have no choice but to call election, whilst stronger ones can hold out. Cameron is likely call a snap election to increase his majority if it's less than 330, in which he will either pull up and get comfortable numbers, or go down and be forced into a Coalition.
 

RyanF

Banned
In addition to what @shiftygiant has said, the Liberal Democrats would be much, much happier.

They can continue on as being a party of protest against Conservatives and Labour, and if the Conservatives have a rough time in office could see there numbers go up above the 2005 level (I can see them losing seats in 2010 without the debates).
 
Playing around with electoralcalculus.uk, you can get the Tories to 327 seats by adding 3% to their IOTL total, and taking 2% from the Lib Dems and 1% from UKIP.

Ed Balls loses his seat in this scenario, so he is not available to become the alternative Labour leader.
 

RyanF

Banned
Playing around with electoralcalculus.uk, you can get the Tories to 327 seats by adding 3% to their IOTL total, and taking 2% from the Lib Dems and 1% from UKIP.

Ed Balls loses his seat in this scenario, so he is not available to become the alternative Labour leader.

I can see Balls being kicked in this scenario.
 
It would probably make things harder for the Tories over the next few years. Cameron would find it very difficult to manage a slender majority when a large portion of his backbenchers dont see eye to eye with him on Europe especially, and in this TL he wouldnt have the help of over 50 Lib Dems. But a lot would depend on which brother Labour opt for, which in turn depends on how a Tory majority effects the leadership race. You could make a decent argument to say that David would have won, given that Ed's arguments about winning over Lib Dem voters would be partially nullified, and more MPs sitting on the most marginal seats actually ended up voting for him than his brother, which could have a significant effect, given how the electoral college was still in place back then.

Clegg would likely go too, probably replaced by Vince Cable or Chris Huhne, and reposition themselves to the left of Labour. They would remain the party of protest, and so I would see UKIP being a somewhat weaker force than in OTL. Since there is less of an electoral necessity for Cameron pledge a referendum, I doubt he will do it, he hung out for pretty long before committing to one in OTL. That said, there is a chance he will do it just to appease his backbenches so he can actually get past the Commons, otherwise he would be trapped between a rock and a hard place with a slender majority but with an economy that didnt really improve till the last year or so of his term, he would likely find himself behind in the polls as he appeared to be in OTL.

The Lib Dems would probably be able to harness the anti establishment mood to improve there standing a bit in 2015 (unless Huhne is leader and he is hit by scandal). Labour and the Tories would be relatively close if David Miliband led the former, so the result would probably be a hung parliament with either option being viable for a strong government for the Lib Dems. Under such circumstances, with a more left wing leader, they would probably opt for Labour in exchange for electoral reform, probably still AV, but with a better chance of getting through. There wouldnt be any Brexit, but if Cameron hadnt pledged a referendum already his successor would have to win over the membership.
 
The Liberal Democrats might actually lose seats in 2015, as a secondary reason for the collapse of the Lib Dem's last year was that the Green party and UKIP sapped away some of the protest votes they had picked up, possibly tipping a few seats the other way. If the Conservatives went ahead with the Scottish referendum, then the rise of the SNP might have an impact on the Lib Dems in Scotland, though it might not be quite so bad as OTL, maybe just halving to five Scottish Lib Dems, as they wouldn't be deemed as tory sellouts. Labour might end up electing David Miliband, though if Yvette Cooper ended up standing, I don't know if she might take over from Ed Miliband as the left-wing challenger, and relegate him to third place.
 
Ok so in 2010, the winning party needs 326 seats for a majority, in OTL conservatives gained 97 seats, giving David Cameron 306 seats in total.

So to gain a majority, the conservatives need to gain 20 seats:
1 - In Hampstead and Kilburn, Glenda Jackson held the seat by "42" votes
2 - Bolton West was only held by Julie Hilling by "92" votes
3 - Southampton Itchen was held by John Denham with 192 votes
4 - Dudley North was held by 649
5 - Derby North was held by 613
6 - Great Grimsby was held by 714
7 - Morley and Outwood, held by Secretary of State for Children, Schools and Families, Ed Balls could lose if 1,101 votes go to Conservative Antony Calvert
8 - Tooting, held by Minister of State for Transport, Sadiq Khan, could lose 2,524.
9 - Exeter, Ben Bradshaw only held the seat by 2,721 majority
10 - Scunthorpe, although Tinie Tempah might never been to Scunthorpe, Conservative Caroline Johnson, could have been it's MP if she gained 2,549, especially with Elliot Morley being barred from standing due to United Kingdom Parliamentary expenses scandal and later imprisoned.
11- Luton South, had been Conservative, until Labour, Margaret Moran won the seat in 1997, however she had been barred from standing due to United Kingdom Parliamentary expenses scandal, so Conservative Nigel Huddleston, could win if he gains 2,329 (take BNP's 1,299)
 
The Liberal Democrats might actually lose seats in 2015, as a secondary reason for the collapse of the Lib Dem's last year was that the Green party and UKIP sapped away some of the protest votes they had picked up, possibly tipping a few seats the other way. If the Conservatives went ahead with the Scottish referendum, then the rise of the SNP might have an impact on the Lib Dems in Scotland, though it might not be quite so bad as OTL, maybe just halving to five Scottish Lib Dems, as they wouldn't be deemed as tory sellouts. Labour might end up electing David Miliband, though if Yvette Cooper ended up standing, I don't know if she might take over from Ed Miliband as the left-wing challenger, and relegate him to third place.
The Greens and UKIP benefited from the Lib Dems because they had ceased to be the party of protest. If they arent in government, they keep that title. Maybe those two would still experience a small improvement in there fortunes, but not to the extent of OTL. A gain in seats is likely if they can just avoid losing as many votes as the Tories do, since most of there targets are Tory marginals.

As for Cooper, I could see her doing better than her husband, but I am not sure if she really has the same left wing credentials as Ed Miliband did. She would likely just be the candidate of the Brownite faction, much like Balls was.
 
This is the result from electoral calculus, increasing the OTL Conservative vote by 3%, taking 2% away from the Lib Dems and 1% away from UKIP:

Conservative 40% 327 (20 more than OTL)
Labour 30% 248 (10 less)
Lib Dem 22% 47 (10 less)

10 seats for the SNP, Plaid Cymru, and the Green as in OTL and the 18 Northern Ireland seats

These are the seats that the Conservatives would win, which went for Labour OTL:

Bolton West
Julie Hilling
Derby North Chris Williamson
Dudley North Ian Austin
Great Grimsby Austin Mitchell
Hampstead and Kilburn Glenda Jackson
Morley and Outwood Ed Balls
Newcastle-under-Lyme Paul Farrelly
Plymouth Moor View Alison Seabeck
Southampton Itchen John Denham
Telford David Wright
Walsall North David Winnick
Wirral South Alison McGovern

These are the seats that the Conservatives would win, which went for the Lib Dems OTL:

Chippenham Duncan Hames
Dorset Mid and Poole Annette Brooke
Solihull Lorely Burt
Somerton and Frome David Heath
St Austell and Newquay Stephen Gilbert
St Ives : Andrew George
Sutton and Cheam Paul Burstow
Wells Tessa Munt

Labour would also have won Bradford East (David Ward) and Norwich South (Simon Wright) instead of the Lib Dems

One remarkable feature of the 2010 parliament, and in fact of Cameron's tenure of Prime Minister, was how few vacancies occurred on the government benches. There were only four by-elections involving Conservative held seats during the parliament, two of them involving the two MPs who defected to UKIP and sought re-election under the UKIP banner. The others were Corby, which was lost to Labour, and Newark, which was held by the Tories. Plus Chris Huhne's seat at Eastleigh, which the Lib Dems wound up retaining. So even with the UKIP defections, that slim majority actually holds up through the entire parliament.
 
This is the result from electoral calculus, increasing the OTL Conservative vote by 3%, taking 2% away from the Lib Dems and 1% away from UKIP:

Conservative 40% 327 (20 more than OTL)
Labour 30% 248 (10 less)
Lib Dem 22% 47 (10 less)

10 seats for the SNP, Plaid Cymru, and the Green as in OTL and the 18 Northern Ireland seats

These are the seats that the Conservatives would win, which went for Labour OTL:

Bolton West
Julie Hilling
Derby North Chris Williamson
Dudley North Ian Austin
Great Grimsby Austin Mitchell
Hampstead and Kilburn Glenda Jackson
Morley and Outwood Ed Balls
Newcastle-under-Lyme Paul Farrelly
Plymouth Moor View Alison Seabeck
Southampton Itchen John Denham
Telford David Wright
Walsall North David Winnick
Wirral South Alison McGovern

These are the seats that the Conservatives would win, which went for the Lib Dems OTL:

Chippenham Duncan Hames
Dorset Mid and Poole Annette Brooke
Solihull Lorely Burt
Somerton and Frome David Heath
St Austell and Newquay Stephen Gilbert
St Ives : Andrew George
Sutton and Cheam Paul Burstow
Wells Tessa Munt

Labour would also have won Bradford East (David Ward) and Norwich South (Simon Wright) instead of the Lib Dems

One remarkable feature of the 2010 parliament, and in fact of Cameron's tenure of Prime Minister, was how few vacancies occurred on the government benches. There were only four by-elections involving Conservative held seats during the parliament, two of them involving the two MPs who defected to UKIP and sought re-election under the UKIP banner. The others were Corby, which was lost to Labour, and Newark, which was held by the Tories. Plus Chris Huhne's seat at Eastleigh, which the Lib Dems wound up retaining. So even with the UKIP defections, that slim majority actually holds up through the entire parliament.
And whilst Cameron doesn't actually know how lucky he'll be with his by-elections (and butterflies probably cause a handful extra to happen anyway perhaps) he does know that his polling will be shit for most of the parliament so he can't do a cut-n-run. Be careful what you wish for indeed.
 
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