WI: Tone #4 plane launched on time.

Saphroneth

Banned
Battle of Midway.


The Tone's #4 plane was launched late, and hence spotted TF 17 well into the battle.
But - the only reason the Tone's #4 plane was in position to spot TF 17 at all was that it took a shorter route to make up for the lateness. If it had been launched on time, it may not have spotted TF17 at all, and probably would not have for an hour or two even if it did.

So...


The Tone's #4 floatplane is launched on time, does not spot TF17 until well after the historical time.

How does that change the battle?
 
Well,the strike that would ultimately cripple the Japanese carriers had already been launched, so nothing changes there. OTOH, without knowing Yorktown's location, Hiryuu's counterattack might find itself fumbling about trying to find the American carriers.
 
Well,the strike that would ultimately cripple the Japanese carriers had already been launched, so nothing changes there. OTOH, without knowing Yorktown's location, Hiryuu's counterattack might find itself fumbling about trying to find the American carriers.
What I'm wondering--and rereading Shattered Sword tonight to try and remind myself--was the likely effects of not spotting the Americans at this time. I'm wondering how long this leaves Nagumo ignorant of the American carrier force, and if this means that Nagumo finishes re-arming his second wave of aircraft with ground-attack weapons and launches a second strike on Midway before he recieves word of the American carriers. That'd mean no planes available for a followup strike by any carriers that survive the 1020 hammer blows (which could be as-OTL just Hiryu, or butterflied into being Akagi as well if Best is less good) until the first wave were re-armed around 1430, if not later due to scouting requirements, and the first attacks would have fewer aircraft to throw at saturating the American CAP.
 
Btw, Tone 4 spotted TF-16, not 17.

Question is what time after the historical time, especially what time does Nagumo gets the message of enemy ships, and reported distance to them? Half an hour later (08.10)? One hour later (08.40)? What time does he gets the message that there's a carrier there?

In any of those instances the rearming would almost be complete or fully completed before a stop order or a re-arming order. If the distance to the enemy ships is reported as much closer to Kido Butai compared to historical, perhaps he might at least try launch Yamaguchi's dive bombers, maybe even the bomb armed kankos, if they can find a window, especially if Tone 4 reports TWO carriers there (different place, different cloud cover, different angle, perhaps he might see both). Or he still fumbles about as historical, orders a re-arming, we don't know. Still the american attacks might go differently, again Nagumo will be in a slightly different place, maybe turns north slightly later etc. the americans might get fewer hits or more. It's unquantifiable really to guess how it will go. The worse for the US is Best still has to attack a CV with just 2 other pilots, but misses.
 
What I'm wondering--and rereading Shattered Sword tonight to try and remind myself--was the likely effects of not spotting the Americans at this time. I'm wondering how long this leaves Nagumo ignorant of the American carrier force, and if this means that Nagumo finishes re-arming his second wave of aircraft with ground-attack weapons and launches a second strike on Midway before he recieves word of the American carriers. That'd mean no planes available for a followup strike by any carriers that survive the 1020 hammer blows (which could be as-OTL just Hiryu, or butterflied into being Akagi as well if Best is less good) until the first wave were re-armed around 1430, if not later due to scouting requirements, and the first attacks would have fewer aircraft to throw at saturating the American CAP.

If they don't spot the american CVs at all, maybe they manage to launch the second strike against Midway about 09.00, or maybe it is still delayed by the perceived need to recover the first strike, and when the TBDs come in, everything goes pear shaped, and they are still caught with most aircraft aboard. After such a devastating attack they will have suspicions enemy CVs are near by, but they have to search for them first, find them, then attack, which will take at the minimum 3 hours (if they launch a comprehensive search at about 11.00). IF Akagi escapes they might have a chance to cripple or sink at least one, possibly two american CV before the second american strike in the afternoon made of Enterprise, Hornet AND Yorktown planes, which probably means both Akagi and Hiryu are hit. Still, with much fewer planes on board, there is a chance one of them might survive. The chances of Hiryu alone sinking one US CV are poor, but still possible i guess, if they launch the second strike (kankos) before the afternoon american attack arrives. IF they have launched the second Midway strike though, Akagi (assuming she's not hit) and Hiryu will be filled with every plane they could have landed when they returned (since Kaga and Soryu are burning) so there would be more japanese planes attacking the US TF, from either both or just Hiryu.
 
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Reviewed the timing of the battle a bit (all per Shattered Sword):

0715: Order given to begin re-arming procedures. Given perfect ops, would be complete by roughly 0845, with 45 minutes to spot and launch.
0728: Tone reports to Tone--10 surface units
0745: Nagumo recieves Tone #4's 0728 report
0747: Akagi orders Tone #4 to stay and amplify contact
0800: Estimated time for Tone #4 to spot American carriers if launched on time and flown path as ordered. If launched late and flies path as ordered, first sighting will be even later.
0800: CAP composition is down to 9 planes, four of which (Kaga planes) are setting up to land. Shortly to be bolstered by additional planes (about 7) but CAP is being kept small given expectation of ongoing landing and spotting ops soon.
0815: Tomonaga's strike begins orbiting Kido Butai.
0820: Tone #4 finally spots and reports American carrier-first solid confirmation of American carrier's present.
0837-0912: Tomonaga's strike is recovered.

Playing out a similar timeline with all of Tone's reports shifted 30 minutes later:

0715: Nagumo orders second group armed for ground attack. Will be completed by 0845, ready for spotting once Tomonaga finishes landing.
0800: Henderson's squadron attacks for little effect, but disturbs CAp (down to 9 planes, with four landing). Tone #4 transmits spotting 10 American surface ships.
0815: Tomonaga arrives over Kido Butai. Nagumo receives Tone #4's 0800 spotting report, but believes (as he did initially in OTL) that it is primarily a surface force even if unseen carrier present with it. Decides to continue arming for land attack for strike on Midway after Tomonaga lands.
0837: Tomonaga's force begins landing.
0845: Second wave completely re-armed for ground attack.
0850: Tone #4 reports presence of American carrier. Position reports are spotty and inconsistent. Nagumo is faced with challenge--deck is busy for at least another half hour (particularly given ongoing trickle of American planes). Rearming would push his earliest strike time out about two hours (1050) at best, probably past 1100, while if he begins spotting once Tomonaga lands, he can strike with all four carriers on either Midway or the American carrier, which may not even be where Tone #4 is reporting.

The questions for him: Spot at 0915 for a ~1000 strike with land-attack weapons, and if so on what target? On Midway as planned, or on the single (possible, probable, position poorly known) carrier? Or rearm, pushing strike to past 1100, but giving time for additional scouts to amplify and sort out Tone #4's spotty reporting?

It's interesting: if he re-arms, then the situation essentially just converges with OTL until after the 1020 strikes: no planes on deck except CAP fighters, hangars full of fuel and bombs, etc. However, if he spots immediately, he'll be launching right around 1010, but his CAP will have been depleted by almost an hour of American attacks. It's possible that, like at 0800, his CAP will have drawn down in preparation for spotting starting at 0915, possibly down to a similar ~9-15 planes, which may have shot their cannon ammo dry in the meantime at Waldron (0920) and VT-6 (0940). When VT-3 arrives (1000), the CAP will be scattered and low on fuel and ammo, and may be much more ineffective in responding.

It's unlikely to allow any hits given the poor quality of the planes and torpedoes, but it likely prevents the kKido Butai from launching their ground-attack-armed strike as they maneuver to avoid attacks and cannot come into the wind. Thus, we actually find the situation poular legend would say exists: all four Japanese carriers bare minutes from a strike, either on Midway or on the Yorktown at 1020 when SBDs begin dropping through the clouds en masse.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Reviewed the timing of the battle a bit (all per Shattered Sword):

0715: Order given to begin re-arming procedures. Given perfect ops, would be complete by roughly 0845, with 45 minutes to spot and launch.
0728: Tone reports to Tone--10 surface units
0745: Nagumo recieves Tone #4's 0728 report
0747: Akagi orders Tone #4 to stay and amplify contact
0800: Estimated time for Tone #4 to spot American carriers if launched on time and flown path as ordered. If launched late and flies path as ordered, first sighting will be even later.
0800: CAP composition is down to 9 planes, four of which (Kaga planes) are setting up to land. Shortly to be bolstered by additional planes (about 7) but CAP is being kept small given expectation of ongoing landing and spotting ops soon.
0815: Tomonaga's strike begins orbiting Kido Butai.
0820: Tone #4 finally spots and reports American carrier-first solid confirmation of American carrier's present.
0837-0912: Tomonaga's strike is recovered.

Playing out a similar timeline with all of Tone's reports shifted 30 minutes later:

0715: Nagumo orders second group armed for ground attack. Will be completed by 0845, ready for spotting once Tomonaga finishes landing.
0800: Henderson's squadron attacks for little effect, but disturbs CAp (down to 9 planes, with four landing). Tone #4 transmits spotting 10 American surface ships.
0815: Tomonaga arrives over Kido Butai. Nagumo receives Tone #4's 0800 spotting report, but believes (as he did initially in OTL) that it is primarily a surface force even if unseen carrier present with it. Decides to continue arming for land attack for strike on Midway after Tomonaga lands.
0837: Tomonaga's force begins landing.
0845: Second wave completely re-armed for ground attack.
0850: Tone #4 reports presence of American carrier. Position reports are spotty and inconsistent. Nagumo is faced with challenge--deck is busy for at least another half hour (particularly given ongoing trickle of American planes). Rearming would push his earliest strike time out about two hours (1050) at best, probably past 1100, while if he begins spotting once Tomonaga lands, he can strike with all four carriers on either Midway or the American carrier, which may not even be where Tone #4 is reporting.

The questions for him: Spot at 0915 for a ~1000 strike with land-attack weapons, and if so on what target? On Midway as planned, or on the single (possible, probable, position poorly known) carrier? Or rearm, pushing strike to past 1100, but giving time for additional scouts to amplify and sort out Tone #4's spotty reporting?

It's interesting: if he re-arms, then the situation essentially just converges with OTL until after the 1020 strikes: no planes on deck except CAP fighters, hangars full of fuel and bombs, etc. However, if he spots immediately, he'll be launching right around 1010, but his CAP will have been depleted by almost an hour of American attacks. It's possible that, like at 0800, his CAP will have drawn down in preparation for spotting starting at 0915, possibly down to a similar ~9-15 planes, which may have shot their cannon ammo dry in the meantime at Waldron (0920) and VT-6 (0940). When VT-3 arrives (1000), the CAP will be scattered and low on fuel and ammo, and may be much more ineffective in responding.

It's unlikely to allow any hits given the poor quality of the planes and torpedoes, but it likely prevents the kKido Butai from launching their ground-attack-armed strike as they maneuver to avoid attacks and cannot come into the wind. Thus, we actually find the situation poular legend would say exists: all four Japanese carriers bare minutes from a strike, either on Midway or on the Yorktown at 1020 when SBDs begin dropping through the clouds en masse.
That's fascinating - thanks for going through minute by minute.

I love the idea that TTL would have what OTL thinks happened.
 
Couple of further points:

If Tone 4 spots the US ships half an hour later then the Enterprise strike leaves together perhaps 10-15 minutes later because there won't be the intercepted report from Tone 4 that abruptly made Spruance to order the strike to leave immediately. But VT-6 might still go on 240 degrees while VB/VS-6 on 226 degrees, while possibly VF-6 actually goes with the Enterprise strike.

As for Kido Butai, with the sighting report received at 08.15 maybe Yamaguchi does not try to spot his D3As and instead starts recovering his kankos at the same time as the other carriers, maybe a few minutes earlier at 08.30 (historically he only started recovery at 08.50 after having to clear decks of the spotted kanbakus which he wanted to send immediately but Nagumo declined). So Yamaguchi might FINISH recovery by about 08.50, possibly saving one or two kankos from ditching.

But again, the most critical issue is at what distance does Tone 4 says the americans are? If he says a figure well under 200 miles (say 150-175), perhaps Nagumo and his staff might think there isn't enough time for rearming and sending a full strike as the american CV is already within the accepted range for their aircraft, so he might just send the kanbakus possibly having switched some of them to AP bombs, maybe with 6 Zeros, just like in the Indian Ocean. Of course, that would mean Yamaguchi almost finishes spotting his 34 kanbaku just as VT-8 comes in, so depends what happens from here. His strike might be launched just before Enterprise VT-6 comes in, or at the last minute, during the small window between 10.00 and 10.20. In this scenario, perhaps Yorktown's SBDs attack FIRST, as VB/VS-6 would be ten minutes late (but perhaps VF-6 is still with them, IF Gray doesn't turn home at 10.00- alternatively, maybe he actually comes down to support VT-6).

If Kobayashi AND Egusa find any of the american TFs, then they're in trouble, Yorktown alone vs. twice as many dive-bombers is hit a lot more times, if only HE bombs only the deck is damaged but AP bombs might cripple it a lot more than OTL.

If they find TF16 then they are shredded by the 25-30 or so Wildcats there, but they might still gain few hits on one or both US carriers.
 
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The Tone's #4 floatplane is launched on time, does not spot TF17 until well after the historical time.

How does that change the battle?

Dogleg at 0730 at 300 miles, dogleg at 0800 back towards Nagumo, about 0820 spots TF-17 with that information on Akagi's bridge around 0840. Much closer so might see a carrier immediately.

Nagumo has rearmed his reserve strike around 0715, starting to spot around 0815. At 0840 word comes in just as he's getting ready to launch. Now Nagumo either has to strike his spot below and rearm it, or launch the strike 'as is' at the target sighted. Seems a no-brainer he launches as is, but with Nagumo you never know.
 
mack8 perhaps Nagumo and his staff might think there isn't enough time for rearming and sending a full strike as the american CV is already within the accepted range for their aircraft, so he might just send the kanbakus possibly having switched some of them to AP bombs, maybe with 6 Zeros, just like in the Indian Ocean. Of course, that would mean Yamaguchi almost finishes spotting his 34 kanbaku just as VT-8 comes in, so depends what happens from here. His strike might be launched just before Enterprise VT-6 comes in, or at the last minute, during the small window between 10.00 and 10.20.

I think your guess of about 6 Zeros being held back for escort is probably spot on. Even when KB was being bombed at 1025 Yamaguchi held Zeros back for escort, and at 0800 he was anticipating launching a strike (either at Midway or the new contact), so I think when he recommended launching at 0830 he had six Zeroes (at least) ready to go. Akagi and Kaga fired off six more Zeros at around 0915, so if 2nd CAR DIV starts to spot at 0850 there might be as many as 12 escorts available.

Soryu’s and Hiryu’s center and forward elevator could lift D3A1’s, so the trick was to do so using both, even if that meant parking some Zeroes at the bow to gain access to the forward elevator. With two elevators spotting happens fast. 2nd CAR DIV’s D3A1’s almost certainly had been on the flight deck earlier than morning and so probably were already warmed, perhaps needing less than 15 minutes warm up.

But in terms of launch ‘windows’, once the decision to spot had been made at 0850 the strike would be spotted and launched as quickly as possible regardless of whether the force was under attack or not and regardless of whether this could be done simultaneously. Assuming VT-8 went after Soryu at 0918 the carrier would continue spotting and warming up even while being attacked. If one was ready to but the other was still running downwind (to avoid TB’s), the carrier able to launch would probably have launched to orbit, massing the combined strike ten or twenty minutes later when the other was able to join.

If Kobayashi AND Egusa find any of the american TFs, then they're in trouble, Yorktown alone vs. twice as many dive-bombers is hit a lot more times, if only HE bombs only the deck is damaged but AP bombs might cripple it a lot more than OTL.

Serious doctrinal flaw, BTW. IJN dive bombers should never have been armed with any type of weapon except semi-armor piercing for anti-carrier work. Each instant fuse bomb was, in terms of ship killing, a wasted effort.
 
I think your guess of about 6 Zeros being held back for escort is probably spot on. Even when KB was being bombed at 1025 Yamaguchi held Zeros back for escort, and at 0800 he was anticipating launching a strike (either at Midway or the new contact), so I think when he recommended launching at 0830 he had six Zeroes (at least) ready to go. Akagi and Kaga fired off six more Zeros at around 0915, so if 2nd CAR DIV starts to spot at 0850 there might be as many as 12 escorts available.
Indeed, 9 or even 12 as you say is not out of question as at least some of the Zeros from the Midway strike would have been recoverd too (but not all, if i recall correctly some chased after the B-17s).

As for Nagumo, launching everything he got with perhaps about a dozen Zeros for escort is of course the best thing he could have done in this scenario (not that he would), and who knows the kankos might have gotten lucky and score a handful of hits with their 800kg bombs- at least they would have split the US fighter defences. It would have significantly increased the chances of his CVs to live through the bomb damage (but there would still be the second wave presumably being fueled and/ or armed- at the very least the casualties on the CVs if they are hit roughly as OTL will be much lower, maybe half, say 350-400 on Soryu, 400-450 on Kaga, 150+ on Akagi etc).
 

As for Nagumo, launching everything he got with perhaps about a dozen Zeros for escort is of course the best thing he could have done in this scenario (not that he would), and who knows the kankos might have gotten lucky and score a handful of hits with their 800kg bombs- at least they would have split the US fighter defences.


Yes, agreed. They might not have hit anything, but they split the defences, maybe even a little more than half because they're coming in lower down.

It would have significantly increased the chances of his CVs to live through the bomb damage (but there would still be the second wave presumably being fueled and/ or armed- at the very least the casualties on the CVs if they are hit roughly as OTL will be much lower, maybe half, say 350-400 on Soryu, 400-450 on Kaga, 150+ on Akagi etc).

Nagumo should have never attempted to rearm his Midway strike after they landed at 0900. He should have launched his reserve strike (in whatever fashion available), struck his Midway Kates below disarmed, refuelled his Vals and Zeros and sent them to reinforce the CAP. Then, ride out the strike.

Assuming the historical, Hiryu has to get her Kates armed and launched, then recover as much of the returning 1st carrier strike as possible. Yamaguchi would have to launch everything clear of the carrier to make room for 50-60 aircraft. Lots of ditches, but Hiryu would have more strikers for an afternoon battle.
 
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