I don't expect people to mindlessly accept my point of view. At the same time healthy critical thinking should not be suspended because someone is a so called "peer reviewed expert" who published some well illustrated picture books.
When you travel as extensively as Professor Turnbull has and have read as many primary sources as he has, then I'll give more weight to your opinions. Till then, you have nothing to back up your claims.
Nonsense, Japan lost the war. The fact is their prowess on land was insufficient for decisive victory, and at sea they typically lost battles. The war was already lost before Hideyoshi's death and the failure of his campaign caused the civil war.
No. The Japanese ran over the Koreans on the ground and stalemated the Ming Armies and it was the Ming who called Uncle First and offered the Japanese South Korea in exchange for their keeping North Korea. Also Hideyoshi's death was the primary cause of the Civil War.
Finally Admiral Yi's victories on the Open Seas could not cut off the Japanese supply lines totally. Osprey Fortress 67 by Stephen Turnbull, gives a good rundown of why.
From page 19.
Besides any communications role, the sheer existence of the wajo denied territory to the enemy on rivers, islands and coasts, and even though that territory was very small in area it was strategically very important to Korea, whose greatest strength was its navy. The Japanese had learned the hard way that if Admiral Yi caught them in open sea, as he did in the decisive battle of Hansando in 1592, then they would be annihilated.
Several of Yi's earlier victories involved his turtle ships luring the Japanese fleet out into open water and attacking them. From the Japanese point of view a turning point in the struggle was the use of coastal defences during Yi's attack on Busan Harbour in September 1592. This time the Japanese did not sail out in pursuit, but counterattacked from the fortifications
they had created out of the castles they had captured during the first landing.
Yi failed to make any impression on the defences. In spite of all the individual firepower possessed by its ships, the Korean Navy was limited in what it could do because of its need for night-time moorings. Once they realized this, the Japanese generals concluded that if they secured the coast of Gyeongsang Province with their wajo then Yi would not be
able to base himself near enough to the major communication routes with
Japan to threaten the Japanese ships. The raids on Ungcheon provided a good illustration of the Korean dilemma, because in spite of several attacks from the sea Yi was unable to control this vital harbour, and therefore did not dare advance into the waters to the east of Ungcheon, let alone launch another attack on Busan. Had he been able to destroy Busan, the partial Japanese evacuation of 1593 would have been as complete and as final as the one of1598. Instead Busan continued to act as the main Japanese base in Korea with little fear of disruption.
So there you have it, the Wajo ensured the neither the Chinese or Koreans could win the war and had Hideyoshi not been insane and scuttled the peace overtures of the Ming with outrageous demands, the Japanese would have had all of South Korea under their control.
Show me. I don't see any of the Turkish or European musket's superior features adapted in the Japanese arquebus. The banning of firearms in Japan shortly after the war probably prevented further development.
First lets show everyone what the Ming had:
From the Chinese musket manual "Magically Efficient Tools" of 1598, authored by Zhao Shizhen.
A. This is the Turkish Musket. Not much of a shoulder stock.
B. A Portuguese Arquebuse.
C. A Ming breachloader invented by the author himself, never successful as gas tight seals required machine precision screws that they could not build then. (Hey, a POD Challenge!)
Not shown is the tree barrel pole gun which was also used extensively in Korea.
Portuguese weapon. Shoulder braced. Note fork clamp brace.
Ming Breachloader, shoulder braced. Note fork clamp brace.
Now for the Japanese Guns.
From the Teppo Jutsu:
Wow, shoulder stocks. Not much of it, but hey. Interesting thing about this book written in 1603 was its mention of using bayonets!!! Note no fork clamp brace.
From the Zohyo Monogatari:
Note they are bracing from the Shoulders. Note no fork clamp brace.
Again, show me the cannons. The Japanese never caught up with Chinese artillery, and would be totally outclassed by Spanish artillery
Cannons first showed up in Japan as Chinese imports in 1270 C.E. and were called
Tetsuhō.
They didn't really catch on till the Firearms revolution began in the mid 1500s. Several cannons of Portuguese make were used at Nagashino in 1575, a few months later the first Japanese bronze 2-pounders were made for Oda Nobunaga.
Nineteen bronze cannons of the Dutch ship
Liefde, piloted by William Adams were unloaded at a Tokugawa controlled port and according to Spanish accounts later employed at the decisive Battle of Sekigahara on October 21, 1600.
Your argument is destroyed. Research moar!
No, Japanese infantry formation would be decimated by Spanish field guns. The harquebusiers would counter any cavalry attack on the guns.
Field artillery at this time wasn't as decisive as it would be in the 1800s. They could only fire a round every 8 minutes if lucky. Damage to Japanese formations would be minimal.
The Japanese used platoon firing, had cartridges, more advanced weather proof guns. They also had more flexible pike screen vis-a-vis the Spanish Terico which prevented most of their own arquebuses from being brought to bear to counter the Japanese gunline.
The Spanish are going down in a hail of gunfire.
These so called ironclads would be no match for Spanish naval guns. They only had a thin layer of iron to protect the ship from fire and grappling hooks. True ironclads were invented in the 19th century and had several inches of iron backed up by two feet of seasoned wood armor.
Except the Spanish can not bring many ships to bear to begin with and it is a big ocean and the Japanese were beginning to catch up using Dutch designs before the freeze by Tokugawa which doesn't occur in this scenario.
They didn't have muskets, only arquebuses. It's anyone's guess if Japanese matchlocks can even penetrate Spanish armor. I'm not saying they didn't know their business. It's just that they were a century behind year 1600 Spain and at significant tactical disadvantage.
The Spanish were way behind the Japanese in training, doctrine, and gun technology and would have been massacred in their terico formations. They got as far as they did by Dividing and Conquering the Natives piece by piece.
They are going down.