Commissar
Banned
I thought I was considered a step away from the loony bin because I challenge far too many cherished myths
WI Tokugawa decides some expansion may desirable
- Thread starter Commissar
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I thought I was considered a step away from the loony bin because I challenge far too many cherished myths
I thought I was considered a step away from the loony bin because I challenge far too many cherished myths
If that's the case, I suspect I'm a straightjacketed inmate of the Joker and Two Face ward at Arkham. But that's never stopped me.
If you have a fun idea, I suggest you run with it. Do the research, find your POD, and work it. In the end, you can't listen to nay sayers, because that song is always the same. If its worth doing, then go for it.
The Sandman
Banned
Here's an idea, albeit one whose plausibility I'm uncertain of.
The Japanese do much better during their invasion of Korea; let's say that the reason why is that Hideyoshi is convinced to avoid pissing off China until after Korea is subdued, thus avoiding the Ming intervention. Before Hideyoshi can return to his "invade our much larger and more powerful neighbor" scheme, he dies as per OTL.
Now, fast-forward to the 1660s, where the Qing have just finished conquering the last remnants of the Southern Ming (excepting Taiwan, of course). With China in hand, they turn their attentions towards Korea, and returning it to its proper place in the Chinese tributary system. The Japanese make a fight of it, but ultimately their position in Korea is doomed; even with the assimilation of some of the Korean lords into the shogunate, there just aren't enough troops to hold back the armies the Qing can send into the peninsula. Since the Japanese had to retain at least a semi-decent navy to protect the shipping lanes between Japan and Korea from pirates, however, a considerable number of people (both ethnic Japanese and Koreans loyal to the shogunate) are evacuated from the peninsula before the end, and still more are transported out as the victorious Qing and the re-established Korean state begin a round of confiscations and expulsions to eliminate any remaining supporters of the old regime.
Given that there isn't much spare land to put the refugees on in Japan proper, the simplest option for the shogunate is to use them to settle thinly populated areas nominally under their control. The Ryukyus and Taiwan might go to erstwhile Korea-based daimyo who were particularly important (conquering the former is likely to have been the one Japanese success in their war with the Qing, and the latter is an obvious target for a shogunate that needs another bit of military victory to balance against a recent disastrous war), but once those areas have been parceled out there isn't much else left besides Sakhalin, the Kurils and the Kamchatka Peninsula that's both nearby and not already under somebody else's control. The daimyo who get stuck with those territories won't be overly happy about it, of course, but it's still better than having no land at all.
The Japanese do much better during their invasion of Korea; let's say that the reason why is that Hideyoshi is convinced to avoid pissing off China until after Korea is subdued, thus avoiding the Ming intervention. Before Hideyoshi can return to his "invade our much larger and more powerful neighbor" scheme, he dies as per OTL.
Now, fast-forward to the 1660s, where the Qing have just finished conquering the last remnants of the Southern Ming (excepting Taiwan, of course). With China in hand, they turn their attentions towards Korea, and returning it to its proper place in the Chinese tributary system. The Japanese make a fight of it, but ultimately their position in Korea is doomed; even with the assimilation of some of the Korean lords into the shogunate, there just aren't enough troops to hold back the armies the Qing can send into the peninsula. Since the Japanese had to retain at least a semi-decent navy to protect the shipping lanes between Japan and Korea from pirates, however, a considerable number of people (both ethnic Japanese and Koreans loyal to the shogunate) are evacuated from the peninsula before the end, and still more are transported out as the victorious Qing and the re-established Korean state begin a round of confiscations and expulsions to eliminate any remaining supporters of the old regime.
Given that there isn't much spare land to put the refugees on in Japan proper, the simplest option for the shogunate is to use them to settle thinly populated areas nominally under their control. The Ryukyus and Taiwan might go to erstwhile Korea-based daimyo who were particularly important (conquering the former is likely to have been the one Japanese success in their war with the Qing, and the latter is an obvious target for a shogunate that needs another bit of military victory to balance against a recent disastrous war), but once those areas have been parceled out there isn't much else left besides Sakhalin, the Kurils and the Kamchatka Peninsula that's both nearby and not already under somebody else's control. The daimyo who get stuck with those territories won't be overly happy about it, of course, but it's still better than having no land at all.
A huge problem with Tokugawa expansionism is that a key part of how they kept power was by demanding their lords spend half of the year at Edo and leave hostages behind when they returned to their domains.
IIRC the only exception to this was the clan responsible for Ezo (their name escapes me right now) because it was considered too far away.
If Hokkaido was too far away from Tokyo then the pacific islands and Taiwan might as well be on the moon.
True. He could make exceptions for the lords of those lands as well....however I'm not sure how feasable that is. Having one isolated weak lord up in Hokkaido excused from things- fair enough. But having a large group of lords given rules over and above the others....thats a recipe for unrest.
Sakhalin: It was one of those areas China officially claimed (but then that was the whole world) but never really bothered with. However according to wikipedia (no expert on Sakhalin history, sorry) when the Japanese did look to be interested in it in the 17th century the Chinese sent troops.
The Phillipines: They mess with Spain they're going down.
IIRC the only exception to this was the clan responsible for Ezo (their name escapes me right now) because it was considered too far away.
If Hokkaido was too far away from Tokyo then the pacific islands and Taiwan might as well be on the moon.
True. He could make exceptions for the lords of those lands as well....however I'm not sure how feasable that is. Having one isolated weak lord up in Hokkaido excused from things- fair enough. But having a large group of lords given rules over and above the others....thats a recipe for unrest.
Sakhalin: It was one of those areas China officially claimed (but then that was the whole world) but never really bothered with. However according to wikipedia (no expert on Sakhalin history, sorry) when the Japanese did look to be interested in it in the 17th century the Chinese sent troops.
The Phillipines: They mess with Spain they're going down.
Solomaxwell6
Banned
That early? I'm not so sure about that. In 1600, there was a tenuous connection at best between Spain and the Philippines/Japan. Before claiming "they're going down," look at a map. Look at the distance between Spain and the Philippines. Now look at the distance between Japan and the Philippines. At that point in time, ships were basically rattraps that had no guarantee of making it around the world. In the early 17th century, there were very few Spanish soldiers on the island, they mostly made us of locals and the divide and conquer technique. If Japan really sets its mind on conquering the Philippines, what's Spain going to do? Shake its fist and write angry letters from the other side of the world until Tokugawa gets scared and runs away? Launch an incredibly expensive expedition across the world and hope that enough manages to keep itself from sinking to fight against tens of thousands of Japanese (and keep in mind that although Japan didn't have many cannons or guns, it did have them, could capture more from occupied Manila, and it's not like the expedition would be able to bring a massive amount over) while the Japanese have a year, minimum, to prepare? Or would it ask permission of France, the Holy Roman Empire, Russia, and China if it could please send an army through their borders, then swim across the Sea of Japan and march on Tokyo that way?
Commissar
Banned
Japanese Armies at Sekigahara deployed 80,000 Arquebuses that were more advanced than what Europe had at the time and the Japanese were trending towards a completely firearms Army system when they went into isolation.
Europe combined didn't have that many.
So the Japanese would have an insurmountable firearms advantage.
Solomaxwell6
Banned
That seems rather high, doesn't it? That was about half of the soldiers who fought at Sekigahara. Do you have a source?
But, hell, if you're right, that just means the fight against Spain would be even more one sided!
Commissar
Banned
Steven Turnbull, though I don't have my books on me at the moment. However, the trend began in the Korea Expedition where prospective Samurai Clans were told to arm themselves with guns due to its massive effect on the battlefield before coming to Korea to fight.
Hideyoshi and Oda before him were massive believers in the Gun and even Tokugawa made sure to have some cannons amongst his forces and books were being written on the deployment and logistics of gunpowder deployment (such as the Zohyo Monogatari) with the groundwork for a complete switch to gunpowder armies well underway when the Tokugawa took over.
Unlike European Armies though, the Spears were for cover, not main force like for European Tericos as trained Japanese Troops could load and fire in 15-20 seconds, comparable to a flintlock and four times the rate of European Arquebuses as the Japanese had solved many of the problems of a matchlock and used cartridges.
The Japanese also developed Platoon Firing where numbered groups opened fire first followed by a second group and so forth to keep up continuous fire.
So you are looking at a significant battlefield advantage for the Japanese in a ground showdown with the Spaniards.
If you can get a spare copy of the Zohyo Monogatari translated, read it.
Also Warriors of Medieval Japan or any other book written by Stephen Turnbull is your friend.
Solomaxwell6
Banned
That's pretty cool. I had heard about Toyotomi and Oda having a relatively heavy use of guns (I can't remember the name of the battle, but Oda completely slaughtered Takeda Shingen's crack troops because of firearms... Kawanakajima?). I didn't realize that there was that much of a stockpile in Japan.
scholar
Banned
Nagashino.
Japan was well on the way to being an emerging power in Asia long before other powers, it just decided to scrap everything and remain isolationist. Then, approximately 50 years after the United States opened up Japan, it began an emerging power, and would defeat Russia a few years later becoming the only native power to reach global recognition for victory against Europeans for over 400 years.
Rush Tarquin
Gone Fishin'
Are you referring to Admiral Yi Sun Shin?
I guess most Koreans would refer to George Washington as 'some general'.
That early? I'm not so sure about that. In 1600, there was a tenuous connection at best between Spain and the Philippines/Japan. Before claiming "they're going down," look at a map. Look at the distance between Spain and the Philippines. Now look at the distance between Japan and the Philippines. At that point in time, ships were basically rattraps that had no guarantee of making it around the world. In the early 17th century, there were very few Spanish soldiers on the island, they mostly made us of locals and the divide and conquer technique. If Japan really sets its mind on conquering the Philippines, what's Spain going to do? Shake its fist and write angry letters from the other side of the world until Tokugawa gets scared and runs away? Launch an incredibly expensive expedition across the world and hope that enough manages to keep itself from sinking to fight against tens of thousands of Japanese (and keep in mind that although Japan didn't have many cannons or guns, it did have them, could capture more from occupied Manila, and it's not like the expedition would be able to bring a massive amount over) while the Japanese have a year, minimum, to prepare? Or would it ask permission of France, the Holy Roman Empire, Russia, and China if it could please send an army through their borders, then swim across the Sea of Japan and march on Tokyo that way?
That is why they need to ally with the Bruneians to have the Spanish leave the Eastern Indies, Bruneians were the superpower in the Indies before the Spanish came I think the Bruneians would allow the Japanese to trade in the Philippines in exchange for their alegiance.
Solomaxwell6
Banned
That's the one. I guess I've just seen Heaven and Earth one too many times.
Are you referring to Admiral Yi Sun Shin?
Yeah. I couldn't remember the name, either, although I knew who he was talking about. I first heard about him because of a video game (Age of Empires II), it's not like he's taught in American history classes.
I wouldn't think the Japanese would pledge allegiance to Brunei, nor do I think Brunei was powerful enough relative to Japan to enforce anything like that.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=81863
This excellent TL is about Tokugawa being defeated, so isn't directly following the OP here... but it does include Japan being a bit more expansionist, and in the last couple pages a good part about a Chinese Sea Lord taking on the Spanish in the Philippines, including some good descriptions of Logistics and Naval Tech from both sides that is relevant to the discussion here about a 17th Century war for the Philippines.
This excellent TL is about Tokugawa being defeated, so isn't directly following the OP here... but it does include Japan being a bit more expansionist, and in the last couple pages a good part about a Chinese Sea Lord taking on the Spanish in the Philippines, including some good descriptions of Logistics and Naval Tech from both sides that is relevant to the discussion here about a 17th Century war for the Philippines.
For strategic reasons, Brunei wanted to get the Philippines back in their sphere of influence in fact they did not give up their claims on the Philippines until they ceded Palawan and Borneo was divided basically if Borneo is united under Brunei, Brunei will have more power and army and they still have Palawan and the whole of Borneo at this point and they have another ally the sultan of sulu, they were still a superpower they just need a boost from an ally.
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That should be easy enough: Have the Qing in China pull a Sakoku. At the time, I believe Macau was the only 'in' to the Chinese market. Spanish unloaded new-world silver in the Philippines, and it was traded for Chinese goods via Macau. A slight tweak, maybe a bit more aggressive Portuguese, and the Beijing says 'piss on that!', and shuts them down.
Spain is now desperate, and sees Japan as an easier nut to crack back open than China.
Bingo. You have your more aggressive Spain, targeting Japan.
Yup. I was going to bring that up.
Leading up to the invasions of Korea, the Japanese were fielding armies of 100,000 plus. Pulling together that many firearms is perfectly reasonable. I can't speak to the tactics as much, but it does sound about right.
Ah yes! That's the guy! I'm more a face rather than a name person.Are you referring to Admiral Yi Sun Shin?
I guess most Koreans would refer to George Washington as 'some general'.
Looks cool, but back then the same question as above arises: What would the Japanese want with all those little island? They aren't really sources for spices, timber, minerals... anything.
Guam, and maybe Palau would be understandable, but Micronesia and the Marshall Island? Why bother? Would they even have known they were there?
Taiwan and Hainan Dao are obvious lust points: and good outposts to further expand interest in SE Asia and among the Sultanates (depending on the POD, there might not be too many left...).
Actually, that Brunei would be the Eastern equivalent of the Ottoman Empire, the question is would japan be interested to colonize the west coast of america?