WI: Time of Troubles leads to North Irish sucsession?

What would happen if the IRA(s) were able to force a British withdrawal from North Ireland; then they declared North Ireland part of the greater Irish state? How would Ireland react? How long would it take for the British to reassert order, if they do?
 
Realistically, the IRA weren't strong enough to do that. They never had more than a couple of hundred active volunteers in the entire Province even at their strongest. They could make life difficult but they weren't going to force the British Army off the streets unless politicians totally bottled the situation.

You also have to remember that NI has a Protestant/Unionist majority while at least some (rising to a majority these days, I believe) of Catholics would also prefer to remain part of the UK. It's not quite as simple as the IRA defeating the British Army then deciding to join the Republic...
 
Every incarnation of the IRA has declared the Irish state to be illegitimate, so unification, absent a Sinn Féin takeover down South (highly unlikely at any point in the late-20th Century), is totally off the table. Putting aside the implausibility of the British being forced out in the first place, this just isn't Vietnam, and the nationalists have every reason to expect marginalisation in a post-withdrawal Northern Ireland. The loyalists, meanwhile, now have virtual carte blanche to settle scores with the Catholic community. Short of an intervention by the Republic (an effort that would necessarily preclude the annexation of Catholic-majority counties), things are going to get extremely ugly.
 

Don Quijote

Banned
As a matter of detail it's Northern Ireland not North Ireland. I'd say the Provisional IRA had more than 200 active members, but the British Army was far stronger. PIRA wasn't an 'army' as such, whatever they called themselves. There were 'no-go' areas for British troops, but these were largely dealt with in Operation MOTORMAN. PIRA never really controlled any territory.
 
Every incarnation of the IRA has declared the Irish state to be illegitimate, so unification, absent a Sinn Féin takeover down South (highly unlikely at any point in the late-20th Century), is totally off the table. Putting aside the implausibility of the British being forced out in the first place, this just isn't Vietnam, and the nationalists have every reason to expect marginalisation in a post-withdrawal Northern Ireland. The loyalists, meanwhile, now have virtual carte blanche to settle scores with the Catholic community. Short of an intervention by the Republic (an effort that would necessarily preclude the annexation of Catholic-majority counties), things are going to get extremely ugly.

Why does the IRA consider the Irish state illegitimate? Is it because of the compromises in 1921 or is it more deeply rooted ideologically?

As to the OP. If the British withdraw, unless it sees a massive Unionist flight, then the hardline unionists seize power and institute a really unpleasant regime. Obviously the prospect of a European Rhodesia/South Africa just thrills London, Washington and Dublin.

teg
 
At best, the IRA would have been able to split off one or two counties to join the South.
Remember the ethnic splits within Northern Irish society. Protestant Scots-Irish politically and economically dominated Northern Ireland. Scots-Irish May have only invaded a few hundred years earlier, but they quickly controlled big business and gov't. During "the Troubles" Protestant leaders (e.g. The Reverend Ian Paisley) encouraged Protestant para-military groups to commit atrocities against Catholics suspected of IRA sympathies. So the first step would be limiting harassment by the Royal Ulster Constablry.
Meanwhile descendants of the original Irish Catholics were reduced to working class or collecting the dole. Those disgruntled, poor Irish Catholics congregated in a few urban neighbourhoods in the biggest cities: Londonderry and Belfast, so if the British Crown wanted to let the worst of the malcontents join Southern Ireland they would need to invent a way for them to physically join the south, but leave a tight border that discourages smuggling.
Some sort of Berlin Corridor?
We are open to suggestions ....
 
Why does the IRA consider the Irish state illegitimate? Is it because of the compromises in 1921 or is it more deeply rooted ideologically?

As to the OP. If the British withdraw, unless it sees a massive Unionist flight, then the hardline unionists seize power and institute a really unpleasant regime. Obviously the prospect of a European Rhodesia/South Africa just thrills London, Washington and Dublin.

teg

Up until the Peace Process got started both SF and the number of IRA's held that they were the only true heirs of the 1916 Rising and Declaration and that the 1921 Daíl onwards was illegitimate, and that only the Military Council of the IRA was the ruling force of Ireland.
 
There's also the not so small matter of the likes of the UVF and the UDA, if the IRA comes out into the open it would be a bloodbath, and one they would lose as the Loyalist paramilitaries enjoyed a degree of covert support from the authorities. That's not even involving the predominantly Protestant Ulster Defence Regiment.
 
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