John Fredrick Parker
Donor
Supposing Tiberius died during his campaigns in Germania? These were just a few years before he became Emperor OTL, and he was already the heir apparent, so how would Augustus' final years be affected?
Germanicus would be the front runner, although the transition may not necessarily be a peaceful one owing to his relative youth. Depending on whether Suetonius' accounts can be believed but Postumus Agrippa (Augustus' last remaining grandson) was put to death either shortly before or shortly after Augustus' death. According to these accounts he had a violent temperament and irresponsible manner and was unfit for leadership. I'm not sure how much support Postumus had, but I would be interested to see who Drusus the Younger (Tiberius' son) would transfer his loyalty to.
The interesting (scary?) thing is all three of them are around the same age, fairly young -- if Augustus dies the same year as OTL (though, given the circumstances, he may die even sooner), none of them would be over thirty. Could all three end up making the claim? For that matter, could this then become the end of the one man rule Augustus had laid down? If so, what does that mean for Rome -- a return to the Republic? Full scale civil war? Or something else?
Maybe a triumvirate between the three?
That... does not sound like it would go well![]()
That... does not sound like it would go well![]()
If you butterfly varrus's death he could play an interesting role himself. He was a close friend of Augustus and the fact that he was able to get the governorship of Syria and Germania shows he had some favor.
Given that Augustus' firm rule brought a measure of stability to Rome a triumvirate or return to senatorial rule would not be welcomed; even if such is tried the legions will put forward a new Emperor and they have the power, not the senate, and certainly not the Roman people. There will be an emperor, even if he's the default candidate (as Claudius and Nero were).
I still believe Germanicus was poisoned by Tiberius so I don't think he'd die in 19 ad.You get the award for understatement, sir. Unless such an arrangement is enshrined in law and custom it is inherently unstable, as OTL Rome showed.
OTL Tiberius campaigned in Germania and Illyria until Augustus' death in 14 AD, when he became emperor. ITTL, with Tiberius dying in Germania (before the Illyrian revolt, therefore between 4 AD and 6 AD), Germanicus would become the heir apparent. If he dies on shedule in 19 AD, then the mantle falls to Drusus.
Given that Augustus' firm rule brought a measure of stability to Rome a triumvirate or return to senatorial rule would not be welcomed; even if such is tried the legions will put forward a new Emperor and they have the power, not the senate, and certainly not the Roman people. There will be an emperor, even if he's the default candidate (as Claudius and Nero were).
A triumvirate with Germanicus being the head triumvirate and essentially emperor due him having the largest military support doesn't seem too far from plausibility IMO.
Meh, I think Germanicus as Emperor outright is more likely -- although one of the first things I see him doing is taking a few legions into Germania to avenge his fathers.* Now if he goes on to die before Augustus, that could make things... difficult.
*Tiberius being his adopted father
So maybe ITTL you see Germanicus re-asserting Roman control over Germania magna to the Elbe?
If Tiberius will die before Augustus the succession was already clear...
Germanicus will be the next Emperor an neither Drusus Caesar (who was first cousin, brother in law and adoptive brother of Germanicus) or Agrippa Postumus (exiled and also brother in law of Germanicus) will contest that.
And at almost thirty Germanicus was old enough for the rule and if in 4 AD (when he adopted Tiberius) Augustus had know who he had still ten years of live he would very likely adopt directly Germanicus who was clearly the heir designated, after the death of Gaius and Lucius Caesar.
Germanicus's father (another Drusus) was Tiberius younger brother and Drusus Caesar was married with Livilla, sister of Germanicus then this is not completely true, but Drusus was the favourite stepson of Augustus and Germanicus was much loved from Augustus and was married with Agrippina (the eldest grandaughter of Augustus)This. The heir will certainly be Germanicus, because unlike the other candidates, he has Julian blood, being the grandson of Octavia. IOTL, Augustus forced Tiberius to adopt Germanicus, to ensure that continued bloodline.
Indeed, all of Augustus' actions over his succession suggest a strong preference for his own bloodline, despite the undoubted skill of Tiberius and Drusus. Partly that's because, as Claudians, these two brothers were the last truly powerful members of the old Roman aristocracy still in existence in Augustus' reign, and he probably was suspicious of their motives.
Alright, so Germanicus is clearly the heir apparent -- there is still the question of how an attempted full on conquest of Germania would go, whether it would grow the Roman Empire, overstretch its military resources, or both...
Rome still had many allies across the Rhine and Arminius was making many enemies...divide and conquer...