WI: Tianammen Square Protests Succeed

RousseauX

Donor
Russia struggled from economic troubles as they assumed all of the Former Soviet Union's debt despite making up less than half its economy and they had to quickly impose painful austerity measures. There was also the factor of humiliation, Russia went from being a superpower that controlled half of europe with an iron fist to being a bankrupt second rate power. China was very different, with a rapidly growing economy, no need for shock therapy, and no humiliation.
but US hostility has less to do with the russian economy and more to do with Russia trying to assert its traditional sphere of influence
 
If TienAnMen protest succede in demand for free and fair election, which include multiparty system you would see:
1. Breakup of party along ideological (marxist, maoist, militarists, national socialist, social democrats etc.), regional and ethnic lines. Similar to USSR and Yugoslavia. CIA warned about it.
2. Return of fragmented China as in first half of XX. century.
3. Massive investment in welfare and military/police would prevent economic reforms.
4. No chinese wonder of 10 % GDP growth based on foreign investment and laxed labour, envirement and urbanist/property law.
5. If China survives through Yeltsin style years, with half of population in powerty (like in Russia in 1990`s), it would be even harder because of population size to install some one like Putin.
6. North Korea could have even invade weak China !

DEMOCRACY is not equal to PROSPERITY.
Just remember XVIII century Poland.
 

kernals12

Banned
If TienAnMen protest succede in demand for free and fair election, which include multiparty system you would see:
1. Breakup of party along ideological (marxist, maoist, militarists, national socialist, social democrats etc.), regional and ethnic lines. Similar to USSR and Yugoslavia. CIA warned about it.
2. Return of fragmented China as in first half of XX. century.
3. Massive investment in welfare and military/police would prevent economic reforms.
4. No chinese wonder of 10 % GDP growth based on foreign investment and laxed labour, envirement and urbanist/property law.
5. If China survives through Yeltsin style years, with half of population in powerty (like in Russia in 1990`s), it would be even harder because of population size to install some one like Putin.
6. North Korea could have even invade weak China !

DEMOCRACY is not equal to PROSPERITY.
Just remember XVIII century Poland.
This cynical take on China's economic growth is false. Most of the country's investment came internally. All of the data we have shows that labor and environmental protections have no impact on economic growth. And stronger property rights plus less corruption under a non communist government would probably make for faster growth.
 
If China's communist government falls, you would probably see West welcome the new government with open arms.

But would "welcoming the new government with open arms" include willingness to remove US troops from the ROK? Because I think that would be a pretty major prerequisite for any alliance between China and the ROK to invade North Korea.

There'd also need to be an end to the Korean War, since China is not likely to attack a country they're technically in a war to defend.
 

kernals12

Banned
But would "welcoming the new government with open arms" include willingness to remove US troops from the ROK? Because I think that would be a pretty major prerequisite for any alliance between China and the ROK to invade North Korea.

There'd also need to be an end to the Korean War, since China is not likely to attack a country they're technically in a war to defend.
That could probably happen. With no hostile North Korea or China, there'd be no need for those troops.
 
This cynical take on China's economic growth is false. Most of the country's investment came internally. All of the data we have shows that labor and environmental protections have no impact on economic growth. And stronger property rights plus less corruption under a non communist government would probably make for faster growth.

Please give some evidence for this. I for one have experience of living through fall of comunism, nationalist wars that followed and plunder of privatisation which created corupt post-communist political parties and class of taicoons.
Also, regulation, or lack of it and fact that chinese people do not own land/homes but state does has allowed creationof Three Gorges damn and rapid growth or Shenzen, Shangahi, Beijing, Chongquing...
Please show me any other county that achieved was China has in last 30 years !
Just because you do not like it (I also am not crazy about communist dictatorship), does not negate thouth.

If I am cynical, you are dreaming !
Be careful before calling someone a liar.
 

kernals12

Banned
Please give some evidence for this. I for one have experience of living through fall of comunism, nationalist wars that followed and plunder of privatisation which created corupt post-communist political parties and class of taicoons.
Also, regulation, or lack of it and fact that chinese people do not own land/homes but state does has allowed creationof Three Gorges damn and rapid growth or Shenzen, Shangahi, Beijing, Chongquing...
Please show me any other county that achieved was China has in last 30 years !
Just because you do not like it (I also am not crazy about communist dictatorship), does not negate thouth.

If I am cynical, you are dreaming !
Be careful before calling someone a liar.
Japan and South Korea.
 
Japan and Korea never were an equal rival to USA. Never near to replace it as Number one.
Korea is "small potatoe".
Japan has third of population and never was near to surpase USA in GDP. Japanese GDP is 1/3 of USA. South Korea has 1,5 trillion $ while USA is 19 trillion $. Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/
While their growth was significant, Japanese main gdp growth was in overpriced property buble (1985-1995), not in exports.
Japan NEVER had continued GDP rise od 10 $ for period of 25 years ! Look at this table which shows massive oscilations between 12 and 4 percente, on average about 6. And this is after 15 years of slow and steady investments in aid, infrastructure and factories, with US Army taking on burden of defence.

Japan did not make it alone. US assistance totaled about US$1.9 billion during the occupation, or about 15% of the nation's imports and 4% of GNP in that period. About 59% of this aid was in the form of food, 15% in industrial materials, and 12% in transportation equipment.
Let se. Military dictatorship from 1945-1951, followed by limited soveregnity under one party rule (Liberal Democratic Party), with no female equality, does not sound like a much better alternative. Korea was also a dictatorship untill 1980. Even today smaller than France or Canada.
 

kernals12

Banned
Japan and Korea never were an equal rival to USA. Never near to replace it as Number one.
Korea is "small potatoe".
Japan has third of population and never was near to surpase USA in GDP. Japanese GDP is 1/3 of USA. South Korea has 1,5 trillion $ while USA is 19 trillion $. Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/
While their growth was significant, Japanese main gdp growth was in overpriced property buble (1985-1995), not in exports.
Japan NEVER had continued GDP rise od 10 $ for period of 25 years ! Look at this table which shows massive oscilations between 12 and 4 percente, on average about 6. And this is after 15 years of slow and steady investments in aid, infrastructure and factories, with US Army taking on burden of defence.

Japan did not make it alone. US assistance totaled about US$1.9 billion during the occupation, or about 15% of the nation's imports and 4% of GNP in that period. About 59% of this aid was in the form of food, 15% in industrial materials, and 12% in transportation equipment.
Let se. Military dictatorship from 1945-1951, followed by limited soveregnity under one party rule (Liberal Democratic Party), with no female equality, does not sound like a much better alternative. Korea was also a dictatorship untill 1980. Even today smaller than France or Canada.
Total GDP doesn't matter. GDP per capita is what counts. South Korea went from having GDP per capita that was 10% of the US level in 1950 to 70% today.
 
-With China now a democracy, does this allow them to fully supercede the US as the leader of the free world?

Not anytime soon.

After WW2, the US built a network of international institutions around itself. This goes far deeper than simply being allied with most every militarily significant nation on the planet, it has to do with how organizations like the WTO, IMF and UN are structured. China has a colossal amount of institution building to do before it could build a competing structure or weave itself into the existing structures to the same degree that the US has. And until China can offer an alternative, every state on the planet has to accept the standards of the US. So, for example, currently one cannot do any international banking at all without in some way using US banks. The US being so integral to these institutions also means they profit from these institutions.

Further, the US had far more economic surplus than China. So even after China overtook the US in total size of the economy, the amount of that economy that can be spent on the military or other means of pulling in friends would be less for some time.

If China overtook as "leader of the free world" in the 21st Century, it would happen because the US chose to give up the crown by bad policies or by simply deciding that empire was more trouble than it's worth.

fasquardon
 

kernals12

Banned
Not anytime soon.

After WW2, the US built a network of international institutions around itself. This goes far deeper than simply being allied with most every militarily significant nation on the planet, it has to do with how organizations like the WTO, IMF and UN are structured. China has a colossal amount of institution building to do before it could build a competing structure or weave itself into the existing structures to the same degree that the US has. And until China can offer an alternative, every state on the planet has to accept the standards of the US. So, for example, currently one cannot do any international banking at all without in some way using US banks. The US being so integral to these institutions also means they profit from these institutions.

Further, the US had far more economic surplus than China. So even after China overtook the US in total size of the economy, the amount of that economy that can be spent on the military or other means of pulling in friends would be less for some time.


If China overtook as "leader of the free world" in the 21st Century, it would happen because the US chose to give up the crown by bad policies or by simply deciding that empire was more trouble than it's worth.

fasquardon
What is economic surplus?
 
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