WI: Tianammen Square Protests Succeed

kernals12

Banned
If the Berlin wall could fall in 1989, it's at least plausible for the same to happen in China. So what if it did happen and China was able to transition to democracy just like Czechoslovakia, Romania, Poland etc.?

-Does this cause a domino effect that brings an end to communism in North Korea and Southeast Asia?
-With China now a democracy, does this allow them to fully supercede the US as the leader of the free world?
-What happens with Tibet, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau?
-How are the Russians effected?
 
With China now a democracy, does this allow them to fully supercede the US as the leader of the free world?

Well, if you're thinking "most populous democracy = leader of the free world", it hasn't really worked out that way for India. I think other things would have to happen for China to be accorded the same status among democratic nations that has been granted the USA.

As for a domino effect also taking out North Korea and SE Asian Communism, well, it's no guarantee that a democratic China is going to want a democratic periphery. The USA was quite happy to prop up authoritarian regimes in its backyard, for example.

I believe the domino effect in Eastern Europe was a case of the USSR/Russia no longer willing or able to use military force to defend ideologically sympathetic regimes. But I think China might still see an interest in keeping the DPRK, at least, afloat.

As for Southeast Asia, I'm not sure how much Communism in Vietnam, Cambodia, or Laos was ever dependent upon Chinese military backing to begin with. Apart from the incursion into Vietnam as punishment for invading Cambodia, and ongoing weapon supplies, I don't think Beijing did much to keep Pol Pot in business. Certainly nothing like the Soviets in Hungary or Czecholslovakia.
 
Well, for NK at least I suppose Russia stays their patron, but the 90's are going to be ROUGH for the Kims. That said they better stop pissing off their neighbors all the time or the Chinese will probably be quite happy to add a border zone the exact size of North Korea to the nation.
 

kernals12

Banned
Well, for NK at least I suppose Russia stays their patron, but the 90's are going to be ROUGH for the Kims. That said they better stop pissing off their neighbors all the time or the Chinese will probably be quite happy to add a border zone the exact size of North Korea to the nation.
We could have a joint Sino-South Korean invasion of the North.
 

kernals12

Banned
Well, if you're thinking "most populous democracy = leader of the free world", it hasn't really worked out that way for India. I think other things would have to happen for China to be accorded the same status among democratic nations that has been granted the USA.
Once India overtakes the US in GDP, that may change

As for a domino effect also taking out North Korea and SE Asian Communism, well, it's no guarantee that a democratic China is going to want a democratic periphery. The USA was quite happy to prop up authoritarian regimes in its backyard, for example.
The US's support for dictatorships in Latin America was out of a pragmatic attempt to stop communism, so this would be an apples to oranges comparison. And starting with the Carter administration, the US pushed for reforms among the authoritarian governments it backed.

As for Southeast Asia, I'm not sure how much Communism in Vietnam, Cambodia, or Laos was ever dependent upon Chinese military backing to begin with. Apart from the incursion into Vietnam as punishment for invading Cambodia, and ongoing weapon supplies, I don't think Beijing did much to keep Pol Pot in business. Certainly nothing like the Soviets in Hungary or Czecholslovakia.
I'm thinking it would inspire people in Southeast Asia to revolt.
 
We could have a joint Sino-South Korean invasion of the North.

I don't think that's likely, as long as South Korea is aligned militarily with the USA, since the Chinese would fear increased US military influence in the north of a unified peninsula.
 

You're asking why the Chinese would fear increased US military influence in the north, or why there would be increased US military influence in the North?

Answering the second question first, the US is allied militarily with the ROK, including a troop presence in the South. I don't think it's too psychedelic to surmise that, in the event of the ROK grabbing territory in the North, the chances of the US eventually managing to get troops up there, probably under South Korean patronage, would increase substantially.

As for the first question, I'm assuming China would not like the idea of US troops getting closer, or even next to, its borders.

I think the only way a joint PRC-ROK invasion of the North would work is if there could be some ironclad agreement given to the Chinese that it would not result in US troops moving into the territory currently called North Korea. I guess this might depend on how the north was administered after such an invasion: is it divided geographically into two(like the larger Korean peninsula itself), or do both countries share in running the whole place?

Or just put in a puppet regime that both sides like, and keep foreign troops out?
 
^ Okay, if this is all supposed to be happening AFTER the collapse of Communism in China, then a joint China-South Korea invasion of the DPRK might depend on how warm the relations are between a post-Communist China and the west. Personally, going by the geostrategic attitude of the relevant countries IOTL, I still don't see China being cool with US troops closer to its borders.
 
The majority in 1989 were state industry workers and social/cultural intelligentsia and nomenklatura seeking a Chinese equivalent of socialist humanism ala 1956/1968. A significant bloc of students also sought this.

I do not see the more liberalistic student line prevailing over party, nomenklatura and working class in a successful 1989.

Not do the engineering nomenklatura wish to sell social capital to themselves as private capital ala the USSR.

The original speculation is a non-starter.

Yours,
Sam R.
 

kernals12

Banned
The majority in 1989 were state industry workers and social/cultural intelligentsia and nomenklatura seeking a Chinese equivalent of socialist humanism ala 1956/1968. A significant bloc of students also sought this.

I do not see the more liberalistic student line prevailing over party, nomenklatura and working class in a successful 1989.

Not do the engineering nomenklatura wish to sell social capital to themselves as private capital ala the USSR.

The original speculation is a non-starter.

Yours,
Sam R.
Did they not want free elections and respect for civil liberties?
 

kernals12

Banned
^ Okay, if this is all supposed to be happening AFTER the collapse of Communism in China, then a joint China-South Korea invasion of the DPRK might depend on how warm the relations are between a post-Communist China and the west. Personally, going by the geostrategic attitude of the relevant countries IOTL, I still don't see China being cool with US troops closer to its borders.
If China's communist government falls, you would probably see West welcome the new government with open arms.
 

kernals12

Banned
There is precedent for a revolution of this sort in a communist Asian country. Mongolia went from communist dictatorship to capitalist democracy in 1990 and has done good so far.
 

RousseauX

Donor
Did they not want free elections and respect for civil liberties?
The majority of the protesters just wanted less corruption and nepotism, only the radical fringes were calling for an end to communist rule, by June 4th most of the protesters in the country had already dispersed
 

RousseauX

Donor
If China's communist government falls, you would probably see West welcome the new government with open arms.
at first maybe, but a democratic china might actually turnout to be pretty nationalistic and assertive of its "historical claims" around the region more so than PRC otl, and the US has never liked any country democratic or not which intrudes on its sphere of influence
 
I think a bigger question is what happens with Taiwan in this scenario. We don't have to worry about Hong Kong or Macau since they are still colonies at this time. There is also the nature of the government of china in this scenario to consider.

Do they become a federal republic of China with a multiparty democracy? Do they become an authoritarian democracy ala Putin's Russia or something else?

If China's communist government falls, you would probably see West welcome the new government with open arms.

Like they did with Russia? ;)
 

kernals12

Banned
I think a bigger question is what happens with Taiwan in this scenario. We don't have to worry about Hong Kong or Macau since they are still colonies at this time. There is also the nature of the government of china in this scenario to consider.

Do they become a federal republic of China with a multiparty democracy? Do they become an authoritarian democracy ala Putin's Russia or something else?



Like they did with Russia? ;)
Russia struggled from economic troubles as they assumed all of the Former Soviet Union's debt despite making up less than half its economy and they had to quickly impose painful austerity measures. There was also the factor of humiliation, Russia went from being a superpower that controlled half of europe with an iron fist to being a bankrupt second rate power. China was very different, with a rapidly growing economy, no need for shock therapy, and no humiliation.
 
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