WI: Three Terms T.R

Theodore Roosevelt promised that he wouldn't seek re-election, a promise that he would regret since Taft didn't live up to his standards and broke in 1912. But what if he didn't promise that, and felt he should stay in the game? I can see him winning 1908. If Teddy's presidency extended from 1901 to 1913(I don't think even he would try a fourth term, at least without a world war), what do you think four more years of T.R would look like? Who do you think he'd choose as his vice president, or would he stick with Fairbanks? Who'd step up to the White House once the bull moose decides to retire?
 
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SsgtC

Banned
If TR is reelected in 08, Taft becomes Chief Justice of the United States Supreme Court a lot earlier. TR would have nominated him to the position in 1910. Which, assuming he dies the same as in OTL, he would serve as Chief Justice for 20 years. That would have a hugely positive effect on the Court. Not that White was a bad Justice. But Taft was probably one of the finest people to ever serve on the Court.

As for other changes, a third term for TR keeps the Progressive wing of the GOP in power for longer. Maybe it's enough to permanently shift the GOP left, maybe not. Between 1909 and 1913, five Supreme Court seats would become vacant. Four through death, one from retirement due to health. TR would have packed the court with Progressive judges.
 
Theodore Roosevelt promised that he wouldn't seek re-election in 1908, a promise that he would regret since Taft didn't live up to his standards and he tried a third party in 1912. But what if he didn't promise that? Even without it he's almost certainly going to beat Alton B Parker, and I can see him winning 1908. If Teddy's presidency extended from 1901 to 1913(I don't think even he would try a fourth term, at least without a world war), what do you think four more years of T.R would look like? Who do you think he'd choose as his vice president, or would he stick with Fairbanks? Who'd step up to the White House once the bull moose decides to retire?

(1) TR made his promise not to seek another term on Election Night after it was clear he had defeated Parker. So it's not like he said it to reassure voters in the 1904 election.

(2) He didn't say he wouldn't run again in 1908--he said (or seemed to say) he wouldn't run again--period. "On the 4th of March next I shall have served three and a half years, and that three and a half years constitutes my first term. The wise custom which limits the President to two terms regards the substance and not the form, and under no circumstances will I be a candidate for or accept another nomination." https://library.cqpress.com/cqresearcher/document.php?id=cqresrre1927031900 In 1912 his supporters argued that (in the words of The Outlook) "When a man says at breakfast in the morning, 'No, thank you, I will not take any more coffee,” it does not mean that he will not take any more coffee to-morrow morning, or next week, or next month, or next year'" This analogy was much discussed (and usually derided):


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(3) Obviously, he didn't have to make any such statement. If he hadn't, he could have run again in 1908 and said he was seeking a "second elective term"... Obviously some people would be unhappy and say that the substance of the no-third-term tradition was being violated, but TR would get the Republican nomination and beat Bryan without much difficulty. (If his running mate wouldn't be Fairbanks it would be another conservative like Taft's OTL running mate James Sherman. The Republican leaders could swallow a moderately progressive presidential candidate if that seemed essential to victory, but they always insisted on balancing him with a conservative running mate.)

(4) TR, as in his first two terms, would probably succeed in balancing the progressive and conservative wings of the Republican party--certainly better than Taft. The Democrats would still probably make some gains in 1910-- even with as skilled a leader as TR, the Republicans are going to show some wear and tear after controlling the White House for fourteen years--but probably not nearly as much as in OTL. I don't think he will run again in 1912--that would be too blatant a violation of any conception of the third term tradition--but it is not clear to me who his successor as GOP candidate will be. As in 1908, Taft would be an obvious choice--except that Chief Justice Fuller died in 1910, and Taft might be appointed to his position. TR admired Elihu Root, but was no doubt aware that as a conservative Wall Street lawyer, Root would be unpopular in the West and Midwest. Hughes was another possibility, but TR never seems to have had a very high opinion of him...
 
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TR admired Elihu Root, but was no doubt aware that as a conservative Wall Street lawyer, Root would be unpopular in the West and Midwest. Hughes was another possibility, but TR never seems to have had a very high opinion of him...

If Root is nominated, then the Democrats have a decent chance of beating him. Especially if Wilson is still their candidate.
 
(1) TR made his promise not to seek another term on Election Night after it was clear he had defeated Parker. So it's not like he said it to reassure voters in the 1904 election.

(2) He didn't say he wouldn't run again in 1908--he said (or seemed to say) he wouldn't run again--period. "On the 4th of March next I shall have served three and a half years, and that three and a half years constitutes my first term. The wise custom which limits the President to two terms regards the substance and not the form, and under no circumstances will I be a candidate for or accept another nomination." https://library.cqpress.com/cqresearcher/document.php?id=cqresrre1927031900 In 1912 his supporters argued that (in the words of The Outlook) "When a man says at breakfast in the morning, 'No, thank you, I will not take any more coffee,” it does not mean that he will not take any more coffee to-morrow morning, or next week, or next month, or next year'" This analogy was much discussed (and usually derided):

(3) Obviously, he didn't have to make any such statement. If he hadn't, he could have run again in 1908 and said he was seeking a "second elective term"... Obviously some people would be unhappy and say that the substance of the no-third-term tradition was being violated, but TR would get the Republican nomination and beat Bryan without much difficulty. (If his running mate wouldn't be Fairbanks it would be another conservative like Taft's OTL running mate James Sherman. The Republican leaders could swallow a moderately progressive presidential candidate if that seemed essential to victory, but they always insisted on balancing him with a conservative running mare.)

(4) TR, as in his first two terms, would probably succeed in balancing the progressive and conservative wings of the Republican party--certainly better than Taft. The Democrats would still probably make some gains in 1910-- even with as skilled a leader as TR, the Republicans are going to show some wear and tear after controlling the White House for fourteen years--but probably not nearly as much as in OTL. I don't think he will run again in 1912--that would be too blatant a violation of any conception of the third term tradition--but it is not clear to me who his successor as GOP candidate will be. As in 1908, Taft would be an obvious choice--except that Chief Justice Fuller died in 1910, and Taft might be appointed to his position. TR admired Elihu Root, but was no doubt aware that as a conservative Wall Street lawyer, Root would be unpopular in the West and Midwest. Hughes was another possibility, but TR never seems to have had a very high opinion of him...
Good analysis, as always. Perhaps Lodge as successor?
 
Wilson had a pretty close race against Champ Clark. Do you think Clark would've beaten Root?

Both Clark and Root were seen as Wall Street candidates, which was the last thing they needed to be in order to win the Presidency during this period. If they are both nominated, then voters would have to choose whomever they considered to be the lesser of two evils.
 

cpip

Gone Fishin'
Both Clark and Root were seen as Wall Street candidates, which was the last thing they needed to be in order to win the Presidency during this period. If they are both nominated, then voters would have to choose whomever they considered to be the lesser of two evils.

Clark was only seen as a Wall Street candidate for about 30 minutes, when W.J. Bryan publicly condemned him out on the floor of the convention, and that only because Bryan wanted another chance at relevance. Prior to that, Clark wasn't seen as a Wall Street candidate at all -- he was a Midwesterner backed by Hearst.
 
Half-OT: It's like a law of AH that only POTUSes (POTI?) named Roosevelt are allowed to seek third terms, let alone win them.
 
Clark was only seen as a Wall Street candidate for about 30 minutes, when W.J. Bryan publicly condemned him out on the floor of the convention, and that only because Bryan wanted another chance at relevance. Prior to that, Clark wasn't seen as a Wall Street candidate at all -- he was a Midwesterner backed by Hearst.

Nonetheless, if Clark is on track to the nomination Bryan will still condemn him. If not (let's say that Republicans maintain control over the House of Reps and Clark doesn't become Speaker) then Wilson is the Democratic frontrunner from the get go and he beats Root albiet narrowly.
 
Their egos are too big to settle for just two :p, though Grant did try to get nominated a third time in 1880

Well, if TR wins in 1908 but Wilson wins in 1912, then FDR could still win in 1932 provided that his career isn't affected by the POD - and then run for a third term in 1940.
 
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