WI: Third Reich without World War Two?

ScorchedLight

Let's say that both France and Britain wise up to this "Hitler" fellow in 1935, and decide to massively back up Poland, sending them weapons and supplies. This results in a very strong Poland that Hitler can't hope to attack. No war comparable to WWII erupts in this timeline.

How long would the Third Reich survive, and how would it evolve if war was averted?
 

Juan Valdez

It likely wouldn't. Nazi Germany was pretty much born out of an ideology that needed to expand to destroy the Poles, the Judeo-Bolshevik whatevers in Russia and (not so much as expansion in the East) A-L from France.

Also, the German economy at the time was directed entirely for war, without it, the economy would have collapsed. Nazi Germany was short on time when it went to war in OTL, an economic meltdown was imminent in a few years if peace had succeeded.
 

lukedalton

ScorchedLight said:
Let's say that both France and Britain wise up to this "Hitler" fellow in 1935, and decide to massively back up Poland, sending them weapons and supplies. This results in a very strong Poland that Hitler can't hope to attack. No war comparable to WWII erupts in this timeline.

How long would the Third Reich survive, and how would it evolve if war was averted?
Click to expand...

If they wise up in 1935 there will be no annexation of Austria or Munich or at least there will be a war for defending the Czech and in this case the Allies have better change even if Poland can go to the German side or at least be a simpathetic neutral
 

Blue Max

I think Hitler winds either out of power or dead quickly.


Hitler's push towards social spending in 1933 wasn't really what he wanted to do, more like what he had to do. But Hitler wanted war, and by 1935 he could claim that he had rescinded the Versallies treaty.


In this scenario, the West is not taking this lying down. Belgium doesn't quit the Allies; Poland and Czechloslovakia make serious threats. They probably don't opt to attack at this point, but their blood is up and they've started to rearm much earlier than OTL.


Hitler, ultimately, isn't going to listen to tough talk. He goes for the Rhineland in 1936--and the French go for it. There is some brief fighting as France jumps into the Rhineland. Hitler has bet the political farm on France NOT smashing in, he's done politically. Nazism is a mass movement, and the next leadership is possibly someone like Goering or Otto Strasser, who may moderate its direction and leave it as a more conventional dictatorship.


The Nazis without Hitler could well stick around for a VERY long time. Given that the Communists aren't extinct in Russia despise their wrongdoings, I could imagine the Nazis surviving to this day and trying to claim credit for "national survival" in the dark times of the 1930s. I figure the dictatorship will probably end in the 60s or 70s, but the Nazis will be a powerful right-wing party into the present day.
 

Hörnla

Hitler will not accept peace in the long run. If this means ruining Germany economically, he will do so and probably nobody will stop him.

If this means waging a war which is unwinable from the 1st campaign on (=> 1938), he will do so and a) either lose the war or b) he might be deposed by a military coup.

As a) would probably lead to conditions ending dictatorship, b) is the only option working in this scenarion.

A military takeover will in the mid-run lead to an authoritarian regime, though not with a general as figurehead (I do not see anybody like e.g. Franco in Germany). They will probably hide behind

a) Göring as Reichspräsident, thereby including a good deal of the NSDAP; if that is not desired or Göring not available

b) a weak but respected conservative political figure as Reichspräsident, perhaps von Neurath

c) my bet would be on a monarchical restauration within a few years, if Germany is lucky, Louis Ferdinand as emperor.

Parliamentarism will be limitedly revived in the long run, probably rather along the lines of the 1871 constitution, without the right to select the head of government, voting system back to first past the post, unlike in 1919-33. Also the KPD will certainly remain forbidden.
But, perhaps, they will also toy with different ideas, where political participation is rather based on your place in society (Ständestaat).

In such a scenario, the fate of the NSDAP IMHO depends largely on if and how they manage to get their act together as a political entity without Hitler. They might just implode, fractions fighting each other about "what the pure doctrine is", they might also remain the leading right-wing party if their organisation is intact. They do not lack personalities to lead, IMHO. If they do so, I see a long-term potential around 20% of the electorate (+/- 10% over the years).
 
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