WI: Third Reich Falls/Wehrmacht Launches Coup in 1936?

I'd assume said military dictatorship ends up looking a lot like what the Reichswehr tried to set up during the Kapp Putsch: a militaristic conservative/paternalistic dictatorship. I think returning the monarchy under some form might be on the cards but if I were a betting man I would say not (pretty discredited at that point and doesn't really do much to aid the political power of the ruling Conservatives). The DNVP would be reconstituted and be a coalition of right wing and reactionary political elements, likely continuing some of the anti-semitic laws of the NSDAP but not to such an extreme. The Communists, SDP, and other left wing factions will likely remain repressed in the new political order and political prisoners will not be released from the camps (that is, if they aren't outright just put against the wall considering the camp system may not be utilized by the new regime)..

Since the Nazis are removed for their failure to reoccupy the Rhineland, it's likely this new government does not pursue nearly as bold a foreign policy as Hitler but a steady remilitarization (if they can*) and trampling of Versailles statutes would probably continue through the next decade. A collective sigh of relief will be breathed by all the statesmen of Western Europe..

I strongly disagree with the idea that a "democracy would be restored" even in name only - the Weimar Republic was openly despised by the same coalition of conservatives and reactionaries we are now placing in control of Germany. I can't see them plausibly making any moves to restore even the façade of republicanism in Germany. In terms of administrative initiatives, the Gau system of the Nazis is probably scrapped and Germany reverts back to the pre-1934 divisions considering NSDAP power is no longer a factor. Along with that, we can probably look at the planned structure of the Kapp government for a vision of this new order. I think Nazi strictures on culture like the demolition of so called "degenerate art" might survive the coup d'etat, but it's anyone's guess.

The economic situation will certainly be a rut for the new government to have to handle - Germany was funding it's rearmament through essentially currency manipulation and operating deficit spending through an imaginary company (MEFO Bills), but without a general European war and German conquests to even the scales against the deficit then this system was gonna result in serious economic woes. I'm by no means an expert on it though, so someone with more familiarity with the early Nazi economic outlook can offer something on that. To me though, it doesn't look promising.

I can't see the Second World War breaking out in anything resembling IOTL, if at all. Somewhere down the line maybe due to the expansionist ambitions of Stalin once he felt confident enough in Soviet (and by extension, his own) power to engage in foreign adventurism. It all depends on how things go elsewhere in Europe, but one immediate ramification of the removal of the Nazis is the probable withdraw of Nazi aid to Franco during the Spanish Civil War. This might make things a tad easier for the Republicans, although Italy will likely still be fully engaged there. Speaking of Italy, maybe this removal of the fascists give some inspiration to certain circles of Italian conservatives...
Dear @Ulyanovsk ... opposite to @Onkle Willie I disagree to most of your comment as it begins already flawed :
The Reichswehr was neither instigator nor participant in the Kapp-Putsch.
It was the Freikorps of Ehrhardt only that supported or rather drove the then commanding General of the Group(Region)command 1 including Berlin Lüttwitz and with him the conspirational group around Kapp into the though hoped and worked for by the latter but nevertheless very much premature Putsch-action.
And the reason for the Marine-Brigarde Ehrhardt ? ... being frightened to be disbanded/dismissed into joblessness aka loosing their income.
The true 'master' of the Reichswehr then already - despite an SPD-Reichwehr-Minister Noske - von Seeckt in anticipation of the general strike the socialists declared kinda 'striked' by reporting himself on 'holiday' immediatly what he strongly recommended to every other commander too. Though - admitted - he also dis not 'offered' or allowed regular Reichswehr to counter the Putschists.
Only military that - more or less - "served" the Putschists were some Navy-stations due to uneducated v.Trotha offering his services to what he rendered now to be the goverment.

For a "revival" of the DNVP ... it was already a dead horse in january 1933 only used as an at the moment still somewhat sore appendix. Even before it declined rapidly due to lack of a proper party organisation which completly evaporated later in 1933. There were still - without a doubt - single personalities who earlier deemed themself connected to the former DNVP.
Similar to the DNVP - aka lacking some party-organisation to be called as such - were KVP(offspring of DNVP), CNVD(another DNVP offspring), LB(the 'Agrarians'), DVP, DStP(parts of former DDP), WP, remants of DDP, etc.. But their members occupied even in 1936 sometimes even importnat administrational posts, regional, provincal or even on 'Reichs'-level. They were first and foremost CIVIL SERVANTS and already during the Kaiser-Reich the same during Weimar only way behind party-politicians.

Therefore the 'interim goverment' most likely installed by possibly the Wehrmacht after removing Hitler and surely with him his cronies might kave an outlook like a 'coaltion' including also center party catholics (the center in contrary to the other HAD a diffentiated well organised party-apparatus since Bismarck-times) but will see itself only as an 'experts'-goverment as was the self-esteem of the several Brüning-administrations.
Very likely one of the first steps taken by this new goverment would be to renounce all of nazi-jurisdiction socially relevant ... like the laws regarding euthanasia (un-christian), regarding expulsion of civil servants (regardless subliminal antisemitism NOT the buisness of party-politics; this is the civil service' only own domain) and also the Nuremberg laws as arbitrary and therefore 'un-civil-service'-like but most importantly disrupting economy - domestical as well as foreign - much more than it helps it. Most likely they would simply completly scrapped. And thereby Germany would return to the 'normal' globally (including United Kingdom, the US, France, Russia, Poland, etc., etc., etc.) prevailing kind of antisemitism.
Dedicated communists, left-wing socialists very likely would be kept in 'prison' eventually prison-camps but under 'new management' until all their cases would be resolved by law. SPD-men - if still in Germany and not escaped to France or Czechoslovakia - would very likely be freed as their incarcerations were conducted without valid juridication; though very likely very strongly remined NOT come in the way/conflict with the now ruling interim goverment. The assumption that a conservative regime would 'simply shoot them ... shows only quite some deep caricaturing non-understanding of the these people. IMHO

The try to reoccupy the Rheinland - aside from breaking yet another stone out of the 'prison-wall' of Versailles despite being part of the non-Versailles treaty of Locarno - was very much asked for BY the Wehrmacht as they needed it as a recruiting pool for their (yet still by themself steered and 'speeded') rearmament program. Therefore they would still put this task atnhands of 'their' interims goverment. Depending on how the events unfold I could envisage the 'usual' (aka non-nazi) diplomats kind of striking a deal - though somewhat later - to enable recruits to be drafted but not garrisoned within the demilitarised region. Not at least due to "A collective sigh of relief will be breathed by all the statesmen of Western Europe."
Conscription and at least the breach of the military parts of Versailles the Wallies had already accepted for over a year now. There actually was no need to "trample" on Versailles-statutes. The ToV was alreayd dead paper only. Nevertheless; as being fully legal the new goverment would very likely continue to try to revert the other effects of the ToV by political means. ... as had every goverment of he Weimar Republik - regardless if SPD or conservativly lead- since its signature.

Ofc after the 'overthrow' of the Hitler-regime there would be at first an 'Interim Goverment' of already mentioned civil servants as an 'experts'-goverment. In many part even continuing as they continued from the Kaiser-Reich to the Weimar Republik to the Hitler-state.
It should be kept in mind, that the civil service that run the country did not 'whole-heartly' supported Hitler it simply did not hindered him. What it did i.e. in 1920 with the Kapp-Putschists brought down by simply being ignored. by almost every official institution as well officials in person.
However these civil servants - despite eventual sympathies for this or that party or faction - strongly rejected any kind of 'party'-parlametarism or democracy. Nevertheless they strongly felt and thereby well understood the need of some kind of 'legalisation' of their rule or better admisnistration of the country. They would need some kind of 'sovereign'. Even the monarchists never envisaged absolutarian rule of 17th/18th century manner and asked for kind of a parliament. Though ... how its members might be choosen would be very different from Weimar practises. In whatever reform they would eventually instal to the Reich it would try to exclude any possibility for the so much abhored 'party-buisness' of the Weimar time.
Very likely in a frist step the "Reichsstatthalter"-law would be canceld and the 'proper' administrationalstructures without the nazis reestablished. ... with the prussian provinces as well as the Länder and other administrative subdivisions reinstalled. It should not be forgotten :
the nazis NEVER dissolved the existing structures of the Weimar times and its constitutions of the Reichs as well as the member-states. They only 'superseeded' them and in 1936 this was stll a rather week affait wiht many of the former administrators still around.
In the middle run there likely might be a Reichs-reform along the lines of Hugo Preuß and the Luther-Bund (sry no english translation available, use ev. google translate) probably in some part 'adjusted' regarding military district.
As said above : whatever the nazis up to that point of time had done regarding social buisnesses - including art - would very likely be reverted. ... including their 'management' of art, architecture and other cultural matters.

In terms of economy :
Hjalmar Schacht at that point of time is still THE MISTER BIG in financial and economic terms. Also no 4-years plan and no acceleration of the 1935 agreed upon rearmament program. The acceleration of OTL was actually by most of the top brass heavily opposed as being much too much far too fast to produce reasonable results. At that time Schacht had already quite a number of measures in stock which would have reduced the foreign traded burdens, not ast least the less agressive rearmaent and therefore better steering of export to generate foreign capital.
 
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Very interesting, thank you for the corrections! Late Weimar and the inter-war Third Reich is not my speciality so I was operating on a fair bit of assumption, this comment was enlightening. I do have one question in regards to the Kapp Putsch considering I know a tad more about that:

The Reichswehr was neither instigator nor participant in the Kapp-Putsch.

I think it's wrong to say the Reichswehr in general was not a participant because, to my knowledge, some units did join the Putsch and assist Marinebrigade Ehrhardt in occupying sections of Berlin, the Reichswehr in general refused to intervene directly against the coup d'etat (which caused the necessity of the General Strike), and they came down on the SDP led government of Bavaria and raised up a pro-Putsch government in Munich. Also, Reichswehr commands in some portions of Weimar directly declared support for the putschists (but didn't take direct action while they waited to see what happened in Berlin), and the ones declared neutral as a rule generally sympathized with the putschists openly.

I was using the term Reichswehr as a catch all and includes irregular formations like Freikorps and that was inaccurate, but wouldn't it also be wrong to claim the Reichswehr was not a participant when a fair amount of its ranks either actively helped the coup in Berlin or essentially refused to come to the aid of the legitimate SDP administration?
 
It is true that "parts of the Reichswehr" supported the Kapp Putsch. The Freikorps didn't officially belong to the Reichswehr, but the Reichswehr refused to help the government, since lots of veterans were in the Freikorps and the military didn't want to fire on their fellow soldiers. But I guess that counts as inaction, not open support (although I'm not an expert on the Kapp Putsch, so it isn't really my call).

 
What if the Nazis get taken out but then the Strasser brothers or the Stahlhelm or some other far right radical movement takes over anyway.
 

Deleted member 109224

Yes they'd help bring forth a """""""democracy""""""" just like Turkey. And just like Turkey they'd gladly assume the role of guardians and protectors of said """""""democracy"""""""

A 20th Century Germany under a Turkish-style semi-democratic government under military receivership would be an interesting creature indeed.
 

Deleted member 109224

Disagree on Italy: IOTL Mussolini was only removed after the country was bloody invaded. Hitler's removal won't affect him IMO. Getting bogged down in a costly, long war might do the trick. Greece and Yugoslavia would be prime targets, but Benny isn't dumb enough to go aftereither of those unless Britain and France are distracted. The Little Entente remains in place ITTL. In an alt-WW2 he might try to pry some concessions from the British and French like a sphere of influence over the Balkans in exchange for "helping" against the Soviets. Like in the last war, the Italians won't be particularly useful IMHO.

The Croats were inching towards declaring independence before WW2 OTL, with Mussolini's support. While a full-throated Italian intervention into Yugoslavia likely wouldn't be tolerated, Italy cutting a deal with the Croats to get Slovenia and a bit of Dalmatia doesn't seem implausible.





Outside of Germany, I could see the WAllies forcing Germany to give up Saarland again and Poland taking the opportunity to seize Danzig.
 
The Croats were inching towards declaring independence before WW2 OTL, with Mussolini's support. While a full-throated Italian intervention into Yugoslavia likely wouldn't be tolerated, Italy cutting a deal with the Croats to get Slovenia and a bit of Dalmatia doesn't seem implausible.





Outside of Germany, I could see the WAllies forcing Germany to give up Saarland again and Poland taking the opportunity to seize Danzig.

Oh that's a definite possibility. With Italy supporting Croatian separatism, we get the Yugoslav Wars sixty years ahead of schedude and it'd be every bit as ugly.
 
Oh that's a definite possibility. With Italy supporting Croatian separatism, we get the Yugoslav Wars sixty years ahead of schedude and it'd be every bit as ugly.
Dang... that does seem likely. Yugoslavia is like a powder keg with all the ethnic tension; all that's needed is a spark. ITTL, that spark comes from Italy in the late 30s, apparently.

Who would win, though?
 
Dang... that does seem likely. Yugoslavia is like a powder keg with all the ethnic tension; all that's needed is a spark. ITTL, that spark comes from Italy in the late 30s, apparently.

Who would win, though?

I don't see Yugoslavia surviving. It's not just Italy that has an interesting in fuelling a Yugoslav civil war. Hungary is going to want Baranya back at the minimum, and possibly also northern Vojvodina. Bulgaria is going to want Macedonia and Albania might show interest in Kosovo. The only ally of the Little Entente directly bordering Yugoslavia is Romania.
 
I was also wondering if anyone in Germany at the time (1936) considered the Nazi dictatorship as a nightmare; they didn't realize it was one until they woke up (i.e. the Wehrmacht launched a coup and established a new government). Does anyone know about German sentiments at the time?
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
I don't see any coup happening unless an actual shooting conflict happens between France and Germany and Britain remains neutral or gives diplomatic support to the French. I don't have the source for it, but a previous post in this forum claimed that Hitler ordered the Heer to retreat if they saw any French troops cross the border. Even if a shooting conflict does happen, if Hitler can keep it contained in the Rhineland and successfully convinces Britain, Italy, or the Soviets that it was caused by "French aggression" then it might still be considered a net gain.
 
^^ Well, if that happens I assume WWII still happens.

If the supposed Wehrmacht coup is successful, though, what are the chances of WWII happening? If it does happen, does Germany have a higher chance of winning?
 

Garrison

Donor
^^ Well, if that happens I assume WWII still happens.

If the supposed Wehrmacht coup is successful, though, what are the chances of WWII happening? If it does happen, does Germany have a higher chance of winning?
Its hard to imagine military professionals taking the risks Hitler did. They certainly wouldn't be prepared to risk war over the Sudetenland in 1938, when everyone bar Hitler was convinced Germany wasn't ready for war. Without Hitler's racist fantasy that Germany had to fight or be destroyed by the 'Judeo-Bolshevik world conspiracy' I doubt they would have declared war in 1939 for that matter.
 
Perhaps if Alfred Huseberg was kept in power as a horthy type figure, there could be an alliance with Poland, and a separate Jewish homeland rather than mass murder.
 
Perhaps if Alfred Huseberg was kept in power as a horthy type figure, there could be an alliance with Poland, and a separate Jewish homeland rather than mass murder.
In one alternate history novel I read, Germany established a homeland for the Jews in Palestine and deported them all there. Well, at least it's better than mass murder. Something similar might happen ITTL.
 
I was also wondering if anyone in Germany at the time (1936) considered the Nazi dictatorship as a nightmare; [...] Does anyone know about German sentiments at the time?

In 1936, Hitler's government was generally seen as a success due to the apparent swift recovery from the Nightmarish depression. While a good deal of the population enjoyed the authoritarian style of government and everyday life , in 1936 it was easy to turn a blind eye towards the crimes of Nazism. Political oppression was at a low-point with comparatively few political prisoners in the KZs. Ordinary Germans assumed that the worst was behind them after the turmoil of 1933. The feared SA contained, the SS not yet a big player to most.
Even, in a naive way, the Nuremberg Laws gave Germans the semblance that the "wild" Anti-Semitism of the Nazis was now tamed by measures framed by the rule of law.

Remember, the 1936 Olympics were scheduled and Hitler's Germany was trying hard to look good in the preceding months.

As I said, that takes a lot of turning blind eyes... but by 1936, Hitler's government (which by the way had many ministries still spearheaded by non-NSDAP-members until 1937) had managed to sell itself quite well to the German public.

You had to be either very principled or a victim of oppression to really oppose the regime. Even many liberals and social-democrats were at that point ready to "give credit where credit is due" and a good deal of Communist just swapped red for brown.
 
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