WI: Third Reich Falls/Wehrmacht Launches Coup in 1936?

A little while back I read an alternate history novel whose prompt was basically "what if the Allies were aware that the Rhineland remilitarization was a bluff?"

So, basically what happens is that shortly after the March 1936 "Rhineland fiasco," a series of complicated events (which I might explain in a later time) led to Wehrmacht officers staging a coup. Hitler is tried and executed by firing squad and the Wehrmacht eventually set up a democracy. Nazism remains in the mainstream (I mean, no WWII means that we never learn, right?). The remnants of the Nazis exist in Germany as the "Military Conservative Party," if I remember correctly, but it's not exactly popular.

However, the novel doesn't really explain what happens afterward. It's vaguely mentioned that some Americans and British are working towards equality and equal rights in their countries after what happened to the Jews in Germany, but that's it. I was wondering in particular about Imperial Japan. Even without the Reich, the Japanese Empire is still there, still expanding aggressively and planning to attack the US.

So if the Reich falls in 1936 and is duly swapped out for a democracy, what happens next to the world?
 
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It might remain authoritarian for a few years and ease more into a democracy over time when prosperity emerges. Anti-Semitism remains a problem; didn't the Jews have their German citizenship revoked? We shouldn't forget the residual anti-Semitism that persisted in other countries, including the US. The world is no longer headed for a Holocaust in this ATL. Will more Jews migrate elsewhere? Look at the construction and military-industrial complex built by the Third Reich. Imagine if the same effort was put into building a better world, as the Allies did after WW2? In this time line, the Nazi flag could become a symbol of progress.
 
The German Communist leaders (until recently running one of the largest parties) are behind barbed wire, /would the generals let hem out?
 
Are you sure the Wehrmacht would install a democracy?

They would support a conservative Government in Berlin
If that is a Democracy is another question
after Führer Dictatorship, the new Government Certainly return to a Monarchy
except two Troublemaker the Communist and Nazi base
but Wehrmacht will deal with them, there way...
 

Garrison

Donor
Left to their own devices I suspect the military will back some other conservative authoritarian who's willing to guarantee continued rearmament. The Communists are not getting out of jail. Now the wildcard is how badly do things go in the Rhineland? Are the former Entente partners content to see the Wehrmacht retreat with Hitler removed from power, or do they feel the need to take more proactive measures to ensure the next government in Berlin doesn't make any trouble? Remember prior to the entry in the Rhineland Germany had been propping up its exports by subsidies and currency manipulation that outraged the British, so the new Berlin government is going to have to work hard to placate them.
 
Are you sure the Wermacht would install a democracy?
Yes they'd help bring forth a """""""democracy""""""" just like Turkey. And just like Turkey they'd gladly assume the role of guardians and protectors of said """""""democracy"""""""
The German Communist leaders (until recently running one of the largest parties) are behind barbed wire, /would the generals let him out?
Well, Of course, they'd return his body to his family to bury. What do you think they are monsters?
 
I'd assume said military dictatorship ends up looking a lot like what the Reichswehr tried to set up during the Kapp Putsch: a militaristic conservative/paternalistic dictatorship. I think returning the monarchy under some form might be on the cards but if I were a betting man I would say not (pretty discredited at that point and doesn't really do much to aid the political power of the ruling Conservatives). The DNVP would be reconstituted and be a coalition of right wing and reactionary political elements, likely continuing some of the anti-semitic laws of the NSDAP but not to such an extreme. The Communists, SDP, and other left wing factions will likely remain repressed in the new political order and political prisoners will not be released from the camps (that is, if they aren't outright just put against the wall considering the camp system may not be utilized by the new regime)..

Since the Nazis are removed for their failure to reoccupy the Rhineland, it's likely this new government does not pursue nearly as bold a foreign policy as Hitler but a steady remilitarization (if they can*) and trampling of Versailles statutes would probably continue through the next decade. A collective sigh of relief will be breathed by all the statesmen of Western Europe..

I strongly disagree with the idea that a "democracy would be restored" even in name only - the Weimar Republic was openly despised by the same coalition of conservatives and reactionaries we are now placing in control of Germany. I can't see them plausibly making any moves to restore even the façade of republicanism in Germany. In terms of administrative initiatives, the Gau system of the Nazis is probably scrapped and Germany reverts back to the pre-1934 divisions considering NSDAP power is no longer a factor. Along with that, we can probably look at the planned structure of the Kapp government for a vision of this new order. I think Nazi strictures on culture like the demolition of so called "degenerate art" might survive the coup d'etat, but it's anyone's guess.

The economic situation will certainly be a rut for the new government to have to handle - Germany was funding it's rearmament through essentially currency manipulation and operating deficit spending through an imaginary company (MEFO Bills), but without a general European war and German conquests to even the scales against the deficit then this system was gonna result in serious economic woes. I'm by no means an expert on it though, so someone with more familiarity with the early Nazi economic outlook can offer something on that. To me though, it doesn't look promising.

I can't see the Second World War breaking out in anything resembling IOTL, if at all. Somewhere down the line maybe due to the expansionist ambitions of Stalin once he felt confident enough in Soviet (and by extension, his own) power to engage in foreign adventurism. It all depends on how things go elsewhere in Europe, but one immediate ramification of the removal of the Nazis is the probable withdraw of Nazi aid to Franco during the Spanish Civil War. This might make things a tad easier for the Republicans, although Italy will likely still be fully engaged there. Speaking of Italy, maybe this removal of the fascists give some inspiration to certain circles of Italian conservatives...
 
Anything resembling the WW2 of OTL will centre on a Japan-USSR war. Stalin might try adventuring westward, but a non-Hitler Germany, no matter how reactionary, will be in a better position to maintain a cordon sanitaire on his borders.
 
Anything resembling the WW2 of OTL will centre on a Japan-USSR war.

Honestly, I think a war between Japan and the USSR is unlikely. The same logic that dictated the Japanese avoiding further confrontation with the USSR IOTL still exists without Hitler in the picture: the Soviets are still much more interested in Europe, China is still far more tantalizing to the Japanese, the USSR is still superior to the Japanese in military strength/capability, etc. I think the war in East Asia will go roughly similar to OTL with the Japanese Invasion of China, the lack of oil setting the Empire on a crash course with the Western Powers, an opportunistic Stalin eyeing Manchuria and seeking to further the aims of the ChiComs when the KMT and Japan are at each other's throats. etc. Japanese expansion will be more limited without the fall of France and the European war to distract the British Empire, but I can still see it breaking out in a very roughly comparable manner.

There might be less powder to ignite when the fuse is going off in Asia, but by 1936 the fuse was lit.
 
I think that Germany would be ruled by a militaristic government. It would rearm but not as fast. It would be a conservative coalition and not a maniacal risk taker so would they would be more cautious. They would see the expansion as unsustainable and slow it down. Also they would be more worried than OTL about how the Anglo-French would react. Anti-Semitism would likely slowly go back down to normal. This may take a decade, but it would probably happen as the kind of vicious anti-Semitism the Nazis practiced is bad for business. There might be another economic downturn in Germany as the MEFO ponzi scheme can't last forever.
 
As is understandable, some people look at a TL like this in terms of the OTL path to WW2.

I thought I'd offer something else.

Sarraut is able to convince Baldwin to support a French intervention against the attempted German re-militarisation on March 1st. Someone else can go into the details but let's assume a humiliating German withdrawal after perhaps a couple of sharp engagements against French troops.

The immediate political consequence is Sarraut is the unlikeliest of heroes - the French Army moves back into the Rhineland amidst sullen hostility from the locals and immediately deals with the Nazi organisation in the region which is fairly brutally dealt with.

The relatively cheap victory against Germany transforms French politics - Sarraut wins a big majority in the Legislative elections in the spring of 1936 and begins a new policy of re-armament. France has regained her self-confidence and with the fall of Hitler, becomes diplomatically very active in central and eastern Europe. Relations with Mussolini's Italy, strained after the latter's invasion of Abyssinia, begin to improve as both guarantee Austrian and Czechoslovak independence.

With Hitler gone, Mussolini feels isolated and with France and Britain in more assertive mood, agrees to a ceasefire in Abyssinia and the withdrawal of Italian troops in late 1936.

Stanley Baldwin has also done well out of the Rhineland Crisis - the backbencher Winston Churchill pays a warm tribute to Baldwin's "resolve" in the Commons and the mood in the Conservative Party shifts away from the "appeasers" as, with the threat of German aggression removed, the onus shifts back to containing the USSR.

France, Britain and Italy are uneasy allies but united in their opposition to Communism and will bolster the authoritarian nationalist regimes in Poland, Hungary and Romania as well as Czechoslovakia and Bulgaria in a single anti-Communist front.

The next big crisis is in Spain where Franco's Nationalists rise against Quiroga's Government on 17th July. Immediately, France and Britain declare their support for the Government and the French move to mass a considerable force at the Spanish border. Mussolini offers to negotiate a political settlement between Franco and the Madrid Government.

British and French naval vessels assembled off both the east coast of Spain and the Portuguese coast. Franco's Nationalists controlled a third of Spain but had failed to take Madrid or Barcelona. Faced with possible French intervention and a significant Anglo-French naval intervention, Franco agreed to the joint offer of Salazar and Mussolini for talks.

As is so often the way, jaw-jaw was infinitely better than war-war. After protracted negotiations through the rest of 1936 and into early 1937, a new constitution and voting system was agreed and at the General Election on 1st June 1937, while the centre-left Popular Front won a small majority, the Communist parties were excluded from Government.

Spain would however experience decades of political turmoil until events on the wider European scene intervened. Salazar and Mussolini ruled Portugal and Italy respectively until the 1960s but their successors soon abandoned much of the baggage and instigated reforms.

For France, conversely, the 1940s and 1950s saw a new resurgence of self confidence. She was once again the pre-eminent European land power and relations with Germany improved considerably with both keeping a wary eye on the Soviet Union. Successive centrist Governments slowly improved French economy and society.

On the other side of the world, however, peace was not so easy to buy. The long standing conflict between Japan and China erupted in 1937 but both Paris and London decided it was necessary to show Tokyo they would not be intimidated. A major build up of Anglo-French forces off Vietnam and at Singapore in 1939-40 convinced the Imperial Japanese not to show undue aggression. The Americans noted the European build up and matched it at Pearl Harbor.

Despite the experience of 1939, it would again be Soviet Russia which would be Japan's major target when war came in 1941. It is known to history as the Second Russo-Japanese War but that's where the similarity with the first conflict ends. After spectacular initial Japanese victories, including the capture of Vladivostok and Irkustsk, Stalin was deposed and the new triumvirate of Molotov, Zhdanov and Zhukov instigated reforms and encouraged initiative on the Siberian Front.

As we know, the Russians pushed back the Japanese in the north while the Chinese Kuomintang, supported by British, French and American air power and weapons and indeed some foot soldiers, were able to finally displace the Japanese from most of China and would eventually link up with the advancing Russian forces on the Yalu River forestalling a Russian advance and occupation of Korea by just a few hours.

Humiliated in Russia and China, a convulsion in the Imperial Japanese Government saw a "peace faction" come to power which sought American mediation. On September 1st 1945, the second Russo-Japanese War ended and the Treaty of San Diego confirmed the Russian conquest of Mongolia and Manchuria.

The history of the second half of the 20th Century doesn't need re-telling here but the struggles of the European colonial powers in the face of rising nationalism, tacitly encouraged in their own ways by both America and Russia, left Germany to re-emerge as the new European powerhouse under successive Social Democratic and Liberal Governments in the 1960s and 1970s.

The explosion of the first nuclear bomb in the South Pacific on the 19th June 1952 once again suggested a new period of French dominance but with the USA, USSR, China, Britain and Germany all acquiring nuclear technology in the next five years that pre-eminence was short lived.
 
This is getting interesting.

Of course, there are many ways for the Allies to have realized that the Rhineland remilitarization was a bluff. In the alternate history novel that I read, an official copy of the Order (Wehrmacht Eyes Only/Destroy After Reading) was smuggled out of Germany into British hands as proof for authenticity. Another way for the Allies to have figured this was a bluff was simple logic. The military had just began conscripting, and the troops were likely green. Thus, one can conclude that the Rhineland remilitarization was a mad gamble made by a mad corporal made in an attempt to distract the Germans from their misery. (Is it true that the Germans were having meat shortages in 1936? What I heard was that remilitarization took away resources that otherwise should've gone to the German people, but the Nazis, as always, shifted the blame to the Jews. Also, they wanted a distraction.) The reason the Allies did nothing IOTL was because they didn't want to repeat the past mistakes of WWI at any cost. I remember the novel said something like, "There was only one person in Europe in 1936 that wanted war [aka Hitler]."

At the time, many believed that Germany had a right to free itself from the shackles of Versailles, and paid no attention to what Germany was doing. Not many saw the storm clouds on the horizon.

Anyways, those were my thoughts for today regarding the alternate Rhineland fiasco.
 
I'd assume said military dictatorship ends up looking a lot like what the Reichswehr tried to set up during the Kapp Putsch: a militaristic conservative/paternalistic dictatorship. I think returning the monarchy under some form might be on the cards but if I were a betting man I would say not (pretty discredited at that point and doesn't really do much to aid the political power of the ruling Conservatives). The DNVP would be reconstituted and be a coalition of right wing and reactionary political elements, likely continuing some of the anti-semitic laws of the NSDAP but not to such an extreme. The Communists, SDP, and other left wing factions will likely remain repressed in the new political order and political prisoners will not be released from the camps (that is, if they aren't outright just put against the wall considering the camp system may not be utilized by the new regime)..

Since the Nazis are removed for their failure to reoccupy the Rhineland, it's likely this new government does not pursue nearly as bold a foreign policy as Hitler but a steady remilitarization (if they can*) and trampling of Versailles statutes would probably continue through the next decade. A collective sigh of relief will be breathed by all the statesmen of Western Europe..

I strongly disagree with the idea that a "democracy would be restored" even in name only - the Weimar Republic was openly despised by the same coalition of conservatives and reactionaries we are now placing in control of Germany. I can't see them plausibly making any moves to restore even the façade of republicanism in Germany. In terms of administrative initiatives, the Gau system of the Nazis is probably scrapped and Germany reverts back to the pre-1934 divisions considering NSDAP power is no longer a factor. Along with that, we can probably look at the planned structure of the Kapp government for a vision of this new order. I think Nazi strictures on culture like the demolition of so called "degenerate art" might survive the coup d'etat, but it's anyone's guess.

The economic situation will certainly be a rut for the new government to have to handle - Germany was funding it's rearmament through essentially currency manipulation and operating deficit spending through an imaginary company (MEFO Bills), but without a general European war and German conquests to even the scales against the deficit then this system was gonna result in serious economic woes. I'm by no means an expert on it though, so someone with more familiarity with the early Nazi economic outlook can offer something on that. To me though, it doesn't look promising.

I can't see the Second World War breaking out in anything resembling IOTL, if at all. Somewhere down the line maybe due to the expansionist ambitions of Stalin once he felt confident enough in Soviet (and by extension, his own) power to engage in foreign adventurism. It all depends on how things go elsewhere in Europe, but one immediate ramification of the removal of the Nazis is the probable withdraw of Nazi aid to Franco during the Spanish Civil War. This might make things a tad easier for the Republicans, although Italy will likely still be fully engaged there. Speaking of Italy, maybe this removal of the fascists give some inspiration to certain circles of Italian conservatives...

I concur for the most part. If there's to be a WW2 at all, it's likely Stalin's expansionist ambitions will be at the core if he feels confident enough to pull it off. The question is where Germany will stand in all of this. After being kicked out of the Rhineland, Germany is going to be in the dog house for a while. Would they try to relieve their diplomatic isolation by turning east again, as they'd done in the Weimar years? Or would Germany form an anti-Soviet bloc with the West?

Disagree on Italy: IOTL Mussolini was only removed after the country was bloody invaded. Hitler's removal won't affect him IMO. Getting bogged down in a costly, long war might do the trick. Greece and Yugoslavia would be prime targets, but Benny isn't dumb enough to go after either of those unless Britain and France are distracted. The Little Entente remains in place ITTL. In an alt-WW2 he might try to pry some concessions from the British and French like a sphere of influence over the Balkans in exchange for "helping" against the Soviets. Like in the last war, the Italians won't be particularly useful IMHO.
 
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I think there might be an anti-Comintern Pact formed East, but with at least Memel and Danzig back. Possibly Austria, but the other land very doubtful.
 
Most of what the Reichswehr were after was typified by the alliance between Beck , Fromm , Schacht and Groener though the late 1920s into early 1930s.. All they needed was the legitimacy of some type of government to continue there "good work" . The strategic vision that Hitler hijacked IN 1936 for HIS WAR , saw Poland as the short term threat followed by threat of combined Franco/Polish attack. But the main thrust was eastern expansion of economic /military/political influence through bilateral trade during the chaos of the great depression.. This credit move allowed Reichsbank penetration of Baltics & Balkans as well as Eastern Europe economies as useful leverage in politics.

To translate this into military action you need one common enemy for all these regions. Can't think of a better villain than Stalinist expansionism...hell that might even get enthusiastic American support. Germany was making serious inroads into China during the early 1930s for exotic ores [tungsten' etc] in exchange for obsolete aircraft and tanks, artillery and troop training. to face the Japanese threat....... even more enthusiastic American support? China and America combined mined the bulk of the worlds tungsten ore and during WW-II USSR got most of its tungsten through Lend Lease from America.
 
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Marc

Donor
The single best consequence is no Holocaust. In that context, nearly everything else is a bit immaterial.

Given that, about my only other thought concerns Stalin. I think the idea that he really desired more than a solid security buffer of Eastern European states before the events of World War 2, could be questioned.
 
;)
Could nationalist Germany staying out of Poland pull off an Anschluss?
Schacht's long term arrangement with Groener & Beck was a 3 phased 15 year programme to rebuild the Reichswehr/Wehrmacht into an armed forces with mobilization strength of at least 80 divisions that would be mechanized and capable of mounting pre-emptive war with their WW-I adversaries- IF THEY HAD TO . In step with the rearmament programme parallel programs were in place to establish a pan European economy that could be mobilised in time of war. Most of the countries in eastern Europe , the Balkans & the Baltics were involved with bilateral discussions with Reich bank /Germany and progress was being made through out the Hitler era until Schacht admitted to Hitler that the pace of rearmament was too much and paced of economic expansion was slowing. Hitler had had enough hijacked the whole plan and converted it into his FOUR YEAR plan for early war based on a limited war economy.

I have no doubt that as long as Hitler was in power Poland /Europe was doomed. But remove him and many things become possible. As an aside Stalin and forced the RED ARMY to practice war-games at the end of the 1930s , where a NAZI lead pan European invasion of Western Russia is attempt. Strangely enough this same scenario was revived by the Warsaw Pact vs NATO , envisaging a neo Nazi lead Bundeswehr spear heading a NATO THRUST through Berlin - Warsaw-Minsk- Smolensk to Moscow. ;)
 
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