WI: Third Crusade

I'm just reading about the passage across Anatolia in Charles Oman's book. He says with the difficulties of the trip its more surprising that the 1st Crusade and Fred made it across than that 5 armies of the 1101 and 2nd crusades were destroyed.
 
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Isaac II was in alliance with Saladin and tried to stop, or at least delay the adance of the German army. Once in Anatolia, Frederick sacked Iconium. It seems to me that the Byzantines were at war with Normans of Sicily. And about Cyprus, it would be likely that without the crusaders, Isaac Komnenos remains the ruler of the island.
 
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I'm just reading about the passage across Anatolia in Charles Oman's book. He says with the difficulties of the trip its more surprising that the 1st Crusade and Fred made it across than that 5 armies of the 1101 and 2nd crusades were destroyed.

I'm not familiar with the 1101 crusade (beyond a general outline), but the 2nd...

Conrad's army was certainly given a massive drubbing. At least a good part of Louis's army survived.

I think the fact is that Fred and the 1st Crusade hit at the right time, and the other two didn't.
 
Biggest problem of the Crusades of 1101 is that the components were mostly segmented. Imagine the First Crusade if the Southern French and Lorrainers don't arrive at Dorylaeum for a few days/weeks and it's just the Normans and Northern French ambushed by Kilij Arslan.

Crusades of 1101 work a LOT better if the Lombards, Burgundians, and Germans, even if they're not in the exact same army as the Nivernais, Bavarians, and Aquitanian, that they're close enough to repeat the circumstances of the First Crusade. IOW, they were divided and thus conquered.

AFAK the 3rd... take Hattin off the table and the KoJ can survive indefinitely by refusing to embrace strategic foolishness such as leaving their water supply, as Saladin is way too crafty to leave his and there won't be a pitched battle as the years before Hattin showed. Assuming Hattin still happens and Barbarossa can get to Antioch with his full army, they do have a good chance of sacking Aleppo and retaking Jerusalem. Frederick is the tie braker between the deadlock between Conrad and Guy and I'd like to think Guy is tossed, all the more likely if Sibylla dies in the same timeframe and takes whatever legitimacy Guy ever had. Before returning home, Third Crusade recaptures Oultrejordain, guaranteeing some defense of the kingdom with small portions of the nobility remaining. It's then in a similar situation as around 1100 to 1110 or so. Very short of manpower, but with more secure borders.

Fourth as it was in OTL is definitely butterflied away, though the chaos in Constantinople following Manuel's death still happens. Crusaders coming by land are sure to be even more unruly but come by land instead of sea, mostly avoiding the Venetian scheme. Venice will still be nursing the grudges caused by the massacre of Latins in 1182... To entirely get rid of the conflict with the Venetians (and ultimately something like the OTL sack of Constantinople), Manuel needs to live a bit longer or a more competent and secure ruler is needed.
 
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Louis suffered a serious setback after he left Byzantine territory but then placed his army under the control of the Templar Grand Master who organised it so that it wouldn't get easily beaten by the Turks, they then made it to the sea. At this point Louis and the nobles took a ship to Outremer and left the infantry, who when they started to starve started marching inland to cross a river, where they were slaughtered by the Turks.
 
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