WI Theresa May won her huge election victory as expected

This might be current politics. If so, can someone direct me where to post?

But anyway. Let's say for whatever reason Theresa May's campaign runs well. She still doesn't do any debates, but she has an acceptable manifesto and her 'Strong and Stable' campaign slogan sticks and resonates with voters. The Conservatives hoover up the UKIP vote and win a significant chunk of former Labour voters in the north.

Corbyn doesn't get anywhere near the decent coverage he got during the election. His manifesto is regarded with skepticism and questions over how Labour will pay for it. His pledges to hard Brexit mean Remainers either don't turn out or stick with the SNP in Scotland or the Liberal Democrats elsewhere.

What would happen afterwards? Would May win a landslide that Blair would be proud of? Would she be the ultimate authority in government? Will Corbyn leave or try and cling on? Is Labour irrecoverably damaged by the loss of swathes of their northern heartlands?
 
This might be current politics. If so, can someone direct me where to post?

But anyway. Let's say for whatever reason Theresa May's campaign runs well. She still doesn't do any debates, but she has an acceptable manifesto and her 'Strong and Stable' campaign slogan sticks and resonates with voters. The Conservatives hoover up the UKIP vote and win a significant chunk of former Labour voters in the north.

Corbyn doesn't get anywhere near the decent coverage he got during the election. His manifesto is regarded with skepticism and questions over how Labour will pay for it. His pledges to hard Brexit mean Remainers either don't turn out or stick with the SNP in Scotland or the Liberal Democrats elsewhere.

What would happen afterwards? Would May win a landslide that Blair would be proud of? Would she be the ultimate authority in government? Will Corbyn leave or try and cling on? Is Labour irrecoverably damaged by the loss of swathes of their northern heartlands?
I am fairly certain this qualifies as current politics, and so should be posted in chat.
If you ask a mod they might move this for you.
 
What would happen afterwards?
Theresa May would have the mandate to form a cabinet more united around her, rather than a splintered one.

Would May win a landslide that Blair would be proud of?
To make the same amount of gains as Tony Blair, Theresa May would need to go from 330 seats to 477, which is not unbelievable especially if the Conservatives can come first in some Scottish seats with the SNP, Lib Dem and Labour, equally destroying one another.

Would she be the ultimate authority in government?
She already had a large majority, having the support of the public in such a way, would make her authority in government, unquestionably strong.

Will Corbyn leave or try and cling on? Is Labour irrecoverably damaged by the loss of swathes of their northern heartlands?
Being defeated would show the party that the nation doesn't actually agree with Corbyn and his views.
I doubt he would volunteraly step down, due to having the backing of the Labour Members, however, he may see members either leave to join the central party of Lib Dem or create a centre left party, cituated between "Corbyn's" Labour and the Lib Dems similar to the SDP
 
You can see the shadow of what might have been a famous Tory victory in the real life results anyway - industrial seats in the Midlands and the North swinging to the Tories even as London and the South goes the other way, the fall of ex-mining seats like Mansfield. A landslide victory of May would presumably have seen many more results like Ashfield - that is, Labour majorities of over 8,000 toppling or being cut to the bone - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashfield_(UK_Parliament_constituency) . And the Copeland by-election and May local elections do show that the towering Conservative leads in the polls had some basis in reality.

Without the manifesto catastrophe, you would likely have seen an underwhelming (but not disastrous) Conservative campaign resulting in a majority of around 100, possibly slightly more. There were still problems with the Tory campaign that are not solely the fault of the manifesto. However, without that cock-up May doesn't lose her image as a slightly dull but competent leader, and so voters don't start listening to what Labour has to say (and without the Tories losing credibility then I think the attacks on Corbyn are likely to work better). The Conservatives probably wouldn't do very well in London but they'd make up for it elsewhere.

I'm guessing May sacks Hammond after the election, but I'm not sure what other changes she would make to the government. Rudd to Chancellor?
 
Perhaps she'd see it as reason to double down on her Lancaster House speech and feel vindicated in taking a harder line in negotiations with the EU.

However, the effects of this might not be only felt in Britain. Euroskepticism might get another big boost, and have impacts particularly in East Central Europe where anti-EU feeling is currently running high.
 
You can see the shadow of what might have been a famous Tory victory in the real life results anyway - industrial seats in the Midlands and the North swinging to the Tories even as London and the South goes the other way, the fall of ex-mining seats like Mansfield. A landslide victory of May would presumably have seen many more results like Ashfield - that is, Labour majorities of over 8,000 toppling or being cut to the bone - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashfield_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Yes but I speculate the reason the Tories managed to attract more votes was the utter and complete collapse of the UKIP vote, just do an elementary scroll and UKIP fell by over 17%
 
Yes but I speculate the reason the Tories managed to attract more votes was the utter and complete collapse of the UKIP vote, just do an elementary scroll and UKIP fell by over 17%
Well, agreed but the Conservatives secured a lower share of the ex-UKIP vote than would have been expected at the outset of the campaign - around half I think rather than 66 - 75%.

It would have been perfectly possible for the Tories to win a landslide even if Labour's share of the vote compared to 2015 stayed still or advanced a bit. That of course covers up a fair amount of churn amongst voting groups - it appears that even in real life a decent number of 2015 Labour Leavers defected to the Tories.
 
I would say that one obvious difference would have been that Murdoch would have got the whole of Sky straight off, and 21st Century Fox wouldn't have been "exposed" in the way it was.
 
I would say that one obvious difference would have been that Murdoch would have got the whole of Sky straight off, and 21st Century Fox wouldn't have been "exposed" in the way it was.

This is current politics. If, after over four months since the last post, you must revive it, will the moderators please move it to Chat?
 
This might be current politics. If so, can someone direct me where to post?

But anyway. Let's say for whatever reason Theresa May's campaign runs well. She still doesn't do any debates, but she has an acceptable manifesto and her 'Strong and Stable' campaign slogan sticks and resonates with voters. The Conservatives hoover up the UKIP vote and win a significant chunk of former Labour voters in the north.

Corbyn doesn't get anywhere near the decent coverage he got during the election. His manifesto is regarded with skepticism and questions over how Labour will pay for it. His pledges to hard Brexit mean Remainers either don't turn out or stick with the SNP in Scotland or the Liberal Democrats elsewhere.

What would happen afterwards? Would May win a landslide that Blair would be proud of? Would she be the ultimate authority in government? Will Corbyn leave or try and cling on? Is Labour irrecoverably damaged by the loss of swathes of their northern heartlands?

If we take the opinion polls that were undertook in the days immediately before and after the Conservative manifesto, before the real crisis began, that provides us a decent basis on which to form a 'What If?' result, because (as already pointed out) these were probably broadly right considering the Copeland by-election result in February and the local election results in May. That result would've looked something like 46% for the Conservatives, 32% for Labour, 8% for the Lib Dems, 4% for UKIP and 2% for the Greens. In the House of Commons that would've translated into something like 386 for the Conservatives, 192 for Labour, 42 for the SNP, 8 for the Lib Dems, 0 for UKIP, 1 for the Greens, 3 for Plaid and 18 for the Northern Ireland parties - an overall majority of 122 for Theresa May.

To get to this point, actually, seems relatively simple when we look back at what happened in the campaign. Had the Conservatives run a more structured, traditional campaign that would've provided some benefit. Had they put scrapping stamp duty for first-time buyers in their manifesto, as had almost happened, that would've helped with younger voters. We know that Fiona Hill, one of May's Chiefs of Staff, desperately wanted to wipe the social care part of the manifesto away and replace it with some vague language on the Government pursuing reform of some variety if elected. Had that been done, it would've benefited the Tory campaign. We also know that internally the case was pushed for a costing document to go alongside the manifesto, as Labour did. This would've taken away one of the big bats Labour used to beat the Tories over the head with when it came to the economy: and we know that costing document would've shown the manifesto be cost-neutral.

Quicker rebuttals to Labour's manifesto would also have helped. Around 14 days after it published, the Tories finally caught up and began hitting Labour over it's plan for a 'Garden Tax' - scrapping council tax and replacing it with a land value tax. Had they done that a lot earlier it would've had more traction with the public. They could've also hit Labour hard on their plans to raise corporation tax - pointing out that it would hit consumers with higher prices in shops. Simple things like visuals might also have helped. At the last minute the Tories were scrambling around for a place to launch their manifesto. They eventually chose Halifax - for no real reason at all apart from that it was a target seat. Had they gone with an earlier idea to launch their manifesto in an air museum surrounded by aircraft from Britain's history, an idea scrapped over how it may be viewed in Brussels, this could've helped lock in the patriotic, UKIP voters as well as also settling things behind the scenes.

With 386 seats and that healthy landslide of 122, Theresa May would undoubtedly be the ultimate authority in the government. In this instance, having won just 192 seats - remember it was said 200 would be a 'good result' - you'd expect Jeremy Corbyn to hold his hands up and resign. Cue chaos in Labour, which would provide another boost to this re-elected, strong and stable Theresa May government. Labour wouldn't be irreversibly damaged, no more so than the Conservatives were not irreversibly damaged after 1997.

This new Theresa May government would have her mark stamped on it straight away, starting with the reshuffle. From reports at the time, and what we now know from post-election books, I'd expect Andrea Leadsom (Environment), Liz Truss (Justice), Justine Greening (Education), Chris Grayling (Transport), Jeremy Hunt (Health), Boris Johnson (Foreign) and Philip Hammond (Treasury) all to be given the sack. There were rumours that Sajid Javid and Liam Fox would also be sacked, but we now know they impressed Number 10 during the manifesto-writing and during the campaign so they would've kept their jobs, I'd assume. There'd also be a case for keeping Hunt on, maybe at Health maybe not.

Going into the Cabinet, with them all obviously holding their seats, we would likely have seen Ben Gummer, Brandon Lewis, Gavin Barwell, Dominic Raab and, yes, even Michael Gove. Nick Timothy - the other of May's Chiefs of Staff - knew that Gove had long wanted to lead Defra, the position he was of course given in reality after the election. I'd expect that to still happen even if May wins a landslide.

The new faces, from what I can remember and from guesses, would likely have occupied the following: Ben Gummer as Brexit Secretary, Gavin Barwell as Health Secretary, Dominic Raab as Justice Secretary and Michael Gove as Environment Secretary. Amber Rudd I would expect to become the first-ever female Chancellor of the Exchequer. Brandon Lewis would've likely have filled her shoes as Home Secretary. David Davis might have been offered Foreign Secretary after Gummer takes over at DExEU. May might've done what she tried to do in January 2018, and move Jeremy Hunt to Business. A job swap with Greg Clark would not be possible with Barwell taking on Health, so Clark might've been moved to Education. Damian Green I would imagine might still have been brought in as First Secretary of State, to free up a role - he might even in these circumstances have been given the Deputy Prime Minister title.
 
Top