I read somewhere English fishing fleets were coming close to the Americas OTL looking for cod. If the Spanish don't discover the Americas someone else will.
I read somewhere English fishing fleets were coming close to the Americas OTL looking for cod. If the Spanish don't discover the Americas someone else will.
I read somewhere English fishing fleets were coming close to the Americas OTL looking for cod. If the Spanish don't discover the Americas someone else will.
How long to you propose to delay contact?
That's not going to happen, why would a diseases that hurts Europeans like that not hit Mongols and others as well?I imagine that the Black Death would be more impactful in Europe than OTL. As in that the plague might cause a collapse of European civilization and set them back a substantial number of years of technological advancement. In addition, Europe would be ripe for conquering from either the Mongols or the Islamic caliphate.
Instead of this, would it be possible for a Portuguese expedition in Henry the Navigator's time to West Africa or the Congo to bring back an Ebola virus or something similar, resulting in the second great plague in a century? If this second plague is directly linked to exploration, the Pope may declare that it is God's punishment for humans attempting to trespass beyond the borders of the world, and forbids exploration (by this point, the Reconquista is mostly complete so a Muslim nation won't really have the resources to colonize, and IMO this POD will alter European lines of succession enough that England doesn't go Protestant even if the Reformation still happens). How long will this delay colonization?
Ebola has a short gestation period. It would manifest itself en route. Need another virus instead.
Otherwise, while it would be difficult to transfer, HIV would cripple western Europe for a long time.
Pretty sure it wouldn't take long to spread elsewhere very soon afterwards.
Instead of this, would it be possible for a Portuguese expedition in Henry the Navigator's time to West Africa or the Congo to bring back an Ebola virus or something similar, resulting in the second great plague in a century? If this second plague is directly linked to exploration, the Pope may declare that it is God's punishment for humans attempting to trespass beyond the borders of the world, and forbids exploration (by this point, the Reconquista is mostly complete so a Muslim nation won't really have the resources to colonize, and IMO this POD will alter European lines of succession enough that England doesn't go Protestant even if the Reformation still happens). How long will this delay colonization?
It is unlikely that he would, if he does the Protestants have even more reason to go out exploring. That is "If the Catholics are banning it , it has to be good."
Yes, but England's path to Protestantism was highly dependent on the succession politics of Henry VIII, which will likely be impacted if the European houses are altered by plague. England thus will likely remain Catholic for a very long time ITTL, and therefore won't colonize. This leaves Denmark-Norway and the Netherlands as the only powers which have a realistic shot at discovering the New World ITTL. Any Danish contact will likely be in the extreme North (i.e. a rediscovery of Vinland) and will not impact the major New World empires for a very long time. As for the Netherlands, well, if the plague means that the Burgundian Succession plays out differently, the circumstances that lead to their independence and then dominance of global trade will not play out the same way. No other Protestant state at this point has the ability to colonize, short of a France that converts to Protestantism. This is *possible* given that the plague may result in someone other than Henri IV in the position to become king and decides that, no, Paris is not worth a mass, but I think the combination of plague, civil war, and continental concerns will more likely than not result in a France that is in no condition to go on colonial ventures.
There's also the possibility that the Henrician Plague will further undermine public trust in the Church earlier, but that this will result in internal reforms and self-reflection that, even if they do not prevent the Reformation, kick it a century or two into the future.
Henry the Navigator had a unique attitude, that is unlikely to be replicated. It was rare for nobles to care that much about systematic, thorough exploration and give funding to it before that period. Artes Mechanicae, which included navigation, were seen as lowly except for areas where non-monarchic entities or comparatively large urban areas flourished. However these more urbanized and developed areas like the Low Countries, Catalonia, and Northern Italy were poorly placed for being "the first" to discover the New World due to political division or geographic barriers (Strait of Hercules).Why?
True but while a failed Reconquista might change the French situation it doesn't mean that France would commission expeditions to what at the time seems like nowhere. Unless OTL Columbus, incorrect about the circumference of the Earth making his expedition seem viable, goes to France.Do they? A failed Reconquista is a huge butterfly which might change the French situation altogether.
Without an underestimation of the Earth's circumference, sailing west to get to the Far East seems like suicide in the quasi-endless ocean. If Columbus went to France then France could have discovered the New World, but we are assuming no Columbus for the scenario, with the point of isolating the Old and New Worlds.Why do we need Columbus to confirm the existence of a new world? Especially since he had no idea it was not India. Besides, Columbus was an Italian, funded by the Spanish crown. What if he is funded by a French king who at that point has money to burn?
There are other routes that could exist with other changes. If the Mamluks (trading partner of the Venetians) survive, the Crimean Khanate falls strengthening Genoese outposts in the Black Sea and possibly reviving a northern Caspian route of the Silk Road, or Constantinople doesn't fall (or does fall, but to Christians), then there are plenty of other ways to get spices. A second round of Crusades, or Persia allowing European trade is possible as well.If the Moors block Gibraltar and the Ottomans still block the East, there is plenty of incentive to try and find alternate routes.
I don't see why a plague would change England much. They might marry other protestant families but it is doubtful they would turn Catholic again. Also I doubt the Catholic Church would do so. Plagues hit Europe many times and the Catholic Church didn't try to stop exploitation or trade. Why all of a sudden would they do so then?
That's not going to happen, why would a diseases that hurts Europeans like that not hit Mongols and others as well?
I don't think they did, in any case you already had population that appeared weaker to such diseases, such as some North European groups, but I mean this is still realistic alternate history and there need's to be a reason for why things happen even if it's diseases.Didn’t the Mongols and other civilizations have a strong immune system to the bubonic plague considering that it’s completely foreign to Europe because it brought over by trade via by ships and via by rats. Plus, this is a alternate history timeline.
Any ideas you propose then?I don't think they did, in any case you already had population that appeared weaker to such diseases, such as some North European groups, but I mean this is still realistic alternate history and there need's to be a reason for why things happen even if it's diseases.