WI there was no collapse of the Midwests industrys

What if in the 1950's the start of the collapse of the midwest industry's had not happened .
And the Rust belt of the country was still the industrial power house it was in the 1940's .

Would China of 2011 be an industrial giant it is today or still a country of peasant farmers .
 
Well, depends on how you're gonna do it. If it's going to be like British industry--i.e. a sickly, dying thing kept barely alive only by the life-saving medicine of the government--, China is certainly going to exceed America's products by 2011. If, however, it's like China's industry,--unrestrained and all-consuming--you will have a, paradoxically, less rich, but more productive nation in the U.S. While there will be a rather large elite of industrialists that are incredibly wealthy, you will also have an absolutely massive, exploited lower class and little-to-no middle class. It will have more exports than China though. But it will be, at best, a second-class superpower, much along the lines of the USSR, but with more liberal government.
 
Well, depends on how you're gonna do it. If it's going to be like British industry--i.e. a sickly, dying thing kept barely alive only by the life-saving medicine of the government--, China is certainly going to exceed America's products by 2011. If, however, it's like China's industry,--unrestrained and all-consuming--you will have a, paradoxically, less rich, but more productive nation in the U.S. While there will be a rather large elite of industrialists that are incredibly wealthy, you will also have an absolutely massive, exploited lower class and little-to-no middle class. It will have more exports than China though. But it will be, at best, a second-class superpower, much along the lines of the USSR, but with more liberal government.


Might want to look into how Germany has stayed a major industrial power. That way you might be able avoid the whole no middle class thing.
 
Hmm, that's a good point. But they also have a well-developed left, which the US hasn't had since WWI. I tend to think it wouldn't evolve well, y'know?
 
Well, depends on how you're gonna do it. If it's going to be like British industry--i.e. a sickly, dying thing kept barely alive only by the life-saving medicine of the government--, China is certainly going to exceed America's products by 2011. If, however, it's like China's industry,--unrestrained and all-consuming--you will have a, paradoxically, less rich, but more productive nation in the U.S. While there will be a rather large elite of industrialists that are incredibly wealthy, you will also have an absolutely massive, exploited lower class and little-to-no middle class. It will have more exports than China though. But it will be, at best, a second-class superpower, much along the lines of the USSR, but with more liberal government.

Actually before the major lose of industry there were more middle class then there is today .
I had friends who parents were called lunch box aristocrat's there Dad were skilled trade workers and a lot of them owned a house and a cottage as well as a boat . What factory worker today can say that .
 

loughery111

Banned
What if in the 1950's the start of the collapse of the midwest industry's had not happened .
And the Rust belt of the country was still the industrial power house it was in the 1940's .

Would China of 2011 be an industrial giant it is today or still a country of peasant farmers .

What collapse of industry? For the love of God, find me some statistics suggesting that US industrial output collapsed, somewhere, anywhere. You can't, because they don't exist!

There are two things that have changed. The first is the degree of automation involved in most industrial processes, and with it, the productivity of each individual worker and the numbers of workers employed in industry. The second is that the world has started catching up again, so our percentage of world output has fallen greatly even as our total output in absolute numbers has gone up.

The point is, industry in the US is not and will not soon be dead. What's plummeting is the share of US employment involved in producing the goods we produce, and that's falling because of automation.
 
You have to look at the types of industries that are employing fewer people. Take the steel industry, now everyone with the resources can make steel. Here in the US the basic, iron ore, limestone and coke, industry has faded because of the demand for the product made with recycling and such that are more automated. Back in the 40's and 50's we exported steel.
Look also at the Caterpillar, they are exporting equipment around the world their industry did not change, just got more automated with less people needed to make them.
These were the type of industries in that area. Aerospace and electronics were never part of the rust belt in great numbers and they are running just fine where they are.
 
I assume we have no fly to West or to the Sunbelt, so the population on the East North Central states (Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Milwaukee) would be about 60-65 million people by 2010.

Chicago area population would be around 14-15 million people; a expanded Detroit area (including Toledo) would be above 10 million; Cleveland region, about 5 million people and Milwaukee area 2,5 million.
 
There is still going to be a shift to automation and a shift away from many industries that aren't profitable for high wage demand western workers (making socks is just not in the american cards)

You could maybe have the microchip and then internet revolution take place in the midwest instead of silicon valley... maybe have a few of the states have lucrative technology grants that bring the likes of gates and others to the midwest... this could boost their economic develop vis a vis OTL dramatically

American growth and economic development has been excellent since the 40's anyway... any boost in the midwest can pretty much only come from sacrificing growth in other areas
 
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