WI there was a nuclear war after the Cuban Missile Crisis?

Ah, but what if there wasn't

“POINTING THE WAY”

As the sirens shrieked and the aircrew ran to the lined up aircraft, in the back of their minds rang the last communication from NORAD command;
‘We are at DEFCON 2, this is not a drill!’
Within minutes the first pair of interceptors streaked down the runway and began to claw for altitude, the roar of the Iroquois engines downing out the final wails of the alert sirens. The base commander glanced at his watch with satisfaction as the last of the aircraft left the ground. Three minutes to launch all twelve Arrows was just what he had been training for all these months, although he never expected to launch in anger.

Squadron leader ‘Rock’ Stoneman looked quickly to his port and starboard as his ‘plane burst through the cloud haze at 20,000 feet. Checking the position of his wingman and the rest of the squadron he clicked on his microphone;
“This is Polar leader, were away control?”
“Hello Polar leader, make your approach 275 degrees magnetic. We show incoming contacts at 38,000 feet and 650 miles. Possible thirty plus Bears with no escort detected.”
“No escort? Seems rather odd, don’t you think?”
“We will update as you approach intercept point, Polar leader. Don’t worry Rock, I’m sure the Reds with have enough MiGs available for your arrival.”

“Sir,” his rear seater sounded worried, “check your intercept radar”
Stoneman flicked a couple of switches and was astonished to find no contacts.
“What the….”
“Yes sir. They’ve gone. Not a sausage; nothing.”
Stoneman called around the squadron to find the same situation. The contacts they had been racing towards had vanished as though they had never been. He knew that this was no exercise and that all Arrow squadrons had been alerted and most were airborne heading towards their own intercepts, so what the hell was going on?
“This is Polar leader. Please advise regarding incoming hostiles.”
After an interminable delay that seemed longer than the six minutes it really was, he got his answer.
“Sorry Polar leader, we have quite a flap on here. They’ve just disappeared!”
“What do you mean ‘they’ve disappeared’? Thirty damn great Tupolev bombers don’t just vanish into thin air.”
Stoneman was getting more and more agitated as he scanned his radar for any indication of the blips that had been ahead of his formation.
“Polar Two flight go to afterburner and 50,000. Let’s see where these bastards have got to.”
“Roger. On our way.”
The four delta winged aircraft suddenly shot ahead of the rest of the squadron and began climbing to altitude. Stoneman turned back to his radar as though just staring at it would cause the contacts to reappear.

**********​

The base commander turned to his aide, Major Henderson, on detachment from the US Air Force.
“Well, major, where are they?”
Henderson, who was holding a headphone to his right ear held his index finger up in the universal gesture of ‘wait’. He placed the headphones back on the table next to the radar plotting equipment and turned a very worried face towards the commander.
“I don’t get it. All the plots coming over the Pole have completely dried up. Maybe our equipment is faulty; phantom images, atmospheric interference, maybe even intentional sabotage. No one seems to have any idea and…..”
His voice trailed off as a red light began flashing on the direct line to Cheyenne Mountain. The commander grabbed the handset a split second before Henderson.
“Yes. Yes. No. What do you mean, too fast. Look, here’s the major.”
He handed the red handset to Henderson as though it was as hot as the colour. The major’s face turned whiter and whiter as he listened. He dropped the headset and for a few seconds his mouth worked but no sounds came out. He seemed to get a grip on himself and finally blurted out one word;
“Missiles!”
The commander was stunned,
“Missiles? What about the bombers? Our ‘planes can’t stop ICBMs. What the hell do they expect us to do?”
Henderson sank into a swivel chair and stared at the grey linoleum floor. His voice was low and almost a whisper,
“Nothing. We’re finished. Our anti-missiles are not in place and we have no high speed ‘planes like your Arrows. We can’t stop them.”
“But surely….”
The Major looked up and he had a tear at the corner of each eye,
“Jack, it’s all over. We just weren’t ready for missiles yet. We didn’t think that the Soviets were either. My God, why didn’t we know?”
Jack Flint placed a hand on Henderson’s shoulder,
“We must get our people back on the ground. There’s nothing they can do up there.”
The major squared his shoulders and nodded,
“You’re right. Let’s bring them home.”


**********​

‘Rock’ was getting really worried now. No contacts, no report of any visual from Polar two. What was going on? His radio crackled.
“Rock? This is Jack. Come home as quick as you can. There are no bombers; it was a feint for the real thing. You can’t shoot down rockets.”
“Rockets! What the hell are you talking about?”
“It’s an ICBM attack. The Reds are further ahead than we thought. For God’s sake man, it’s all done with.”
How Stoneman kept his voice steady, he had no idea.
“How many incoming, Jack?
“So far, about ten tracks detected.”
Stoneman thought about that for a second,
“Jack. Don’t you think that’s rather strange? Only ten? They must have more than that.”
“Don’t ask me. I’m only a base commander – what do I know?”
“Look Jack, I’m going to stay aloft a little longer. Something is very wrong here.”
The voice over the radio became louder,
“Don’t be an idiot. We’ve lost a war! Can’t you get that through your thick head?”
“It aint over till it’s over, Jack. Polar leader out.”
The radio clicked off.

**********​

Flint placed the telephone receiver down with a very thoughtful look on his face. The information from NORAD was very interesting.
“What’s your first name Henderson?” Flint asked. Major Henderson, sitting at the communications desk looked up in surprise,
“Wha…Oh, it’s Howard, sir”
“Well, Howard, lets start figuring this out, shall we?”
Henderson looked perplexed,
“I’m not sure I know what you mean sir.”
Jack grabbed a chair and straddling it with the back of the chair against his chest, explained.
“First of all, some facts. Ten incoming missile tracks from central Asian launch sites targeted against what; empty tundra? Bogus bombers, however they did that, and no declaration of war from Moscow. There have been no other threats and central Germany is as quiet as ever.”
“I see what you’re getting at. Doesn’t seem right at all.”
“No it doesn’t.”
Flint gestured to the screens around them,
“How long till impact?”
Henderson called to the two female air force officers at the location and detection tables for an update.
“1 minute, 45 seconds.”
“Hmmm….” Jack Flint hummed to himself reflectively and then he jabbed at the communications button.
“Rock, this is Flint. Put your anti-flash visors up and turn 180 degrees from your present course. The nukes are going to go off in the next 90 seconds from my mark. Three, two, one, mark!”
The response was immediate, as though he was waiting for the call,
“Way ahead of you Jack. We’ve also detected some odd echoes about 300 miles north of us. We’ll take a look.”
“Don’t pursue until the bombs have detonated. I don’t think this is a serious attack. There won’t be any more coming.”
“Really,” The word was drawn out, “Got a hot line to the Kremlin?”
“I’ll let you know. I’m going to call Ottawa and Cheyenne Mo……,”
“Holy crap! Look at that!”
Stoneman shouted suddenly, interrupting Flint’s words.

**********​

Excerpts from “Pointing The Way; The Arrow And The Cuban Crisis” by Josephine Williams. Available from Doubleday this year. The book contains 350 pages with 14 photographs and many maps and diagrams

This topical and well timed book is based on reminisces and research by Ms. Williams both from her time as a serving military officer and her subsequent career as a social historian. Although some chapters appear to be more novelized than others (the above is a good example), the overall effect is one of ‘on-the spot’ reporting and detailed personal analysis of the situations and personalities. Many of the participants are still available for interviews and confirmation of the events of October 1966 and her subtle weaving of their words into the narrative make for an absorbing if sometimes dry read. Considering the latest McHowe inquiry into the failure of the Conservative government under Diefenbaker to cancel the huge spending on what was to be one of the most costly military blunders in history, this book only highlights the issue.

It is, however, a matter of history that Prime Minister Diefenbaker was very opposed to the continued funding of the Arrow project as illustrated in the quote below:

"Some people talk about courage. Well, I took a stand in reference to the 'Arrow.' No one wanted to take that stand.... As I look back on it, I think it was one of my decisions that was right. Here was an instrument beautiful in appearance, powerful, a tribute to Canadian production.... This instrument that was otherwise beautiful, magnificent in its concept, would have contributed little, in the changing order of things, to our national defence."
- January 25, 1963, House of Commons.

It’s just a pity that his courage did not result in the cancellation vote going his way. Perhaps the cooling down of Canada’s relations with the Eisenhower ‘military-industrial’ complex in the US would not have occurred. It seems unfortunate that Canada was in the position of a buffer zone between the Soviet Union and its cold war adversary, the United States.

The history behind the 2nd October Crisis (as it as commonly known) does bear repeating as this book is based on eye witness accounts of actions taken before, during and after October 1966.

The discovery in Cuba of formally hidden Soviet missiles in late 1965 by US intelligence created a crisis in the new Johnson administration. At first unwilling to believe that Castro and Soviet premier Leonid Brezhnev could be so aggressive and, quite frankly, stupid to provoke the US, President Johnson took almost a month before any action was taken. In addition, according to Desmond Fitzgerald, the then new CIA division chief for the Western Hemisphere is quoted as saying;

“Unfortunately, the new president isn’t as gung-ho on fighting Castro as Kennedy was.”
- March, 1964, Buenos Aires.

At first there were the typical denials by both the Soviet and Cuban governments, but publication of the CIA’s findings and detailed U2 images finally convinced the UN and the Western world that the US had a valid case against the two communist counties. Almost at once Brezhnev began a campaign vilifying the US as a country of belligerent warmongers who were threatening the sovereignty of Cuba and subsequently threatening world peace. This view took hold quickly amongst the non-aligned countries of the world and, obviously, the various Soviet ‘puppet’ regimes around the globe. Arrayed against this very vocal opposition, the US quickly and quietly ensured that NATO and their allies were ‘on board’ for any actions up-to and including war.

By July of the following year, the tensions around the world appeared to be coming to a head. No diplomatic solutions had been found and it was very unlikely that any would. Although the US had threatened war if the missiles were not removed and the Soviet Union had replied in much the same manner, it just seemed to be ‘words and fury signifying nothing’. There had been no activation of Soviet reserves, no ‘manoeuvres’ on the German central front and no additional deliveries (or attempted deliveries) of new weapons to Cuba. However, according to the CIA, the Soviet Unit was preparing for a ‘first strike’ using its huge bomber fleet and documents and photographs were produced to prove this. As we now know, much of this was faked and, looking back now, very poorly faked. However, we all fell for it.

We had all been told that NORAD was ready for anything and, if spending was anything to go by, it was. The Americans felt secure in their belief that the many squadrons of the highly advanced Arrow interceptor produced by Avro Canada should stop any bomber incursions over the North Pole and that their own aircraft would knock down any survivors. The possibility of missile attack was not seen as a very credible threat due to the supposed crudeness of the Soviet weapons and poor guidance systems. The Cuban missiles were only a threat due to their closeness. Because of this, the development of US anti-missile systems was very slow and relatively under-funded and what was available was directed against a Caribbean threat.

The major failure of the US and other western intelligence agencies to see the true state of the Soviet threat and to correctly advise their governments has been well documented elsewhere and there is no need to dwell on the subsequent inquiries and the fall of both the Pearson and Johnson administrations. No doubt, the 1966 crisis resulted in the denial of the Nobel peace prize to Lester Pearson and its award to Brezhnev for his handling of the whole Cuba issue. Suffice it to say that the demonstration of the Soviet Union’s offensive capability and the self destruction of the empty missiles over the Arctic was enough of a shock that the Western Alliance and the Soviet Union began serious efforts to reduce world tensions. The realization that John Diefenbaker was right in his attempt to cancel the Arrow project, although for the wrong reasons, took a long time to be seen. It seems that only now are we prepared for the unpleasant truths of that unfortunate time.

The world after October 1966 has become a more open and safe place since the destruction of most of the US and Soviet nuclear weapons and delivery systems under the Havana SALT Agreements of the 1970’s and the co-operation between the new Russian Federation and the United States on various areas such as space exploration, global warming and, more importantly, the elimination of various terrorist cells over the past few years. The recent de-militarization of the Korean peninsula and the resolution of the West Bank uprising in 2003 were just some of the successes of East-West co-operation. It is always a favourite alternative history exercise to speculate on the results of a retaliatory strike by President Johnson before the Soviet missiles detonated. Thank goodness we never had to live in that world.
 
“POINTING THE WAY”

As the sirens shrieked and the aircrew ran to the lined up aircraft, in the back of their minds rang the last communication from NORAD command;
‘We are at DEFCON 2, this is not a drill!’
Within minutes the first pair of interceptors streaked down the runway and began to claw for altitude, the roar of the Iroquois engines downing out the final wails of the alert sirens. The base commander glanced at his watch with satisfaction as the last of the aircraft left the ground. Three minutes to launch all twelve Arrows was just what he had been training for all these months, although he never expected to launch in anger.

Squadron leader ‘Rock’ Stoneman looked quickly to his port and starboard as his ‘plane burst through the cloud haze at 20,000 feet. Checking the position of his wingman and the rest of the squadron he clicked on his microphone;
“This is Polar leader, were away control?”
“Hello Polar leader, make your approach 275 degrees magnetic. We show incoming contacts at 38,000 feet and 650 miles. Possible thirty plus Bears with no escort detected.”
“No escort? Seems rather odd, don’t you think?”
“We will update as you approach intercept point, Polar leader. Don’t worry Rock, I’m sure the Reds with have enough MiGs available for your arrival.”

“Sir,” his rear seater sounded worried, “check your intercept radar”
Stoneman flicked a couple of switches and was astonished to find no contacts.
“What the….”
“Yes sir. They’ve gone. Not a sausage; nothing.”
Stoneman called around the squadron to find the same situation. The contacts they had been racing towards had vanished as though they had never been. He knew that this was no exercise and that all Arrow squadrons had been alerted and most were airborne heading towards their own intercepts, so what the hell was going on?
“This is Polar leader. Please advise regarding incoming hostiles.”
After an interminable delay that seemed longer than the six minutes it really was, he got his answer.
“Sorry Polar leader, we have quite a flap on here. They’ve just disappeared!”
“What do you mean ‘they’ve disappeared’? Thirty damn great Tupolev bombers don’t just vanish into thin air.”
Stoneman was getting more and more agitated as he scanned his radar for any indication of the blips that had been ahead of his formation.
“Polar Two flight go to afterburner and 50,000. Let’s see where these bastards have got to.”
“Roger. On our way.”
The four delta winged aircraft suddenly shot ahead of the rest of the squadron and began climbing to altitude. Stoneman turned back to his radar as though just staring at it would cause the contacts to reappear.

**********​

The base commander turned to his aide, Major Henderson, on detachment from the US Air Force.
“Well, major, where are they?”
Henderson, who was holding a headphone to his right ear held his index finger up in the universal gesture of ‘wait’. He placed the headphones back on the table next to the radar plotting equipment and turned a very worried face towards the commander.
“I don’t get it. All the plots coming over the Pole have completely dried up. Maybe our equipment is faulty; phantom images, atmospheric interference, maybe even intentional sabotage. No one seems to have any idea and…..”
His voice trailed off as a red light began flashing on the direct line to Cheyenne Mountain. The commander grabbed the handset a split second before Henderson.
“Yes. Yes. No. What do you mean, too fast. Look, here’s the major.”
He handed the red handset to Henderson as though it was as hot as the colour. The major’s face turned whiter and whiter as he listened. He dropped the headset and for a few seconds his mouth worked but no sounds came out. He seemed to get a grip on himself and finally blurted out one word;
“Missiles!”
The commander was stunned,
“Missiles? What about the bombers? Our ‘planes can’t stop ICBMs. What the hell do they expect us to do?”
Henderson sank into a swivel chair and stared at the grey linoleum floor. His voice was low and almost a whisper,
“Nothing. We’re finished. Our anti-missiles are not in place and we have no high speed ‘planes like your Arrows. We can’t stop them.”
“But surely….”
The Major looked up and he had a tear at the corner of each eye,
“Jack, it’s all over. We just weren’t ready for missiles yet. We didn’t think that the Soviets were either. My God, why didn’t we know?”
Jack Flint placed a hand on Henderson’s shoulder,
“We must get our people back on the ground. There’s nothing they can do up there.”
The major squared his shoulders and nodded,
“You’re right. Let’s bring them home.”


**********​

‘Rock’ was getting really worried now. No contacts, no report of any visual from Polar two. What was going on? His radio crackled.
“Rock? This is Jack. Come home as quick as you can. There are no bombers; it was a feint for the real thing. You can’t shoot down rockets.”
“Rockets! What the hell are you talking about?”
“It’s an ICBM attack. The Reds are further ahead than we thought. For God’s sake man, it’s all done with.”
How Stoneman kept his voice steady, he had no idea.
“How many incoming, Jack?
“So far, about ten tracks detected.”
Stoneman thought about that for a second,
“Jack. Don’t you think that’s rather strange? Only ten? They must have more than that.”
“Don’t ask me. I’m only a base commander – what do I know?”
“Look Jack, I’m going to stay aloft a little longer. Something is very wrong here.”
The voice over the radio became louder,
“Don’t be an idiot. We’ve lost a war! Can’t you get that through your thick head?”
“It aint over till it’s over, Jack. Polar leader out.”
The radio clicked off.

**********​

Flint placed the telephone receiver down with a very thoughtful look on his face. The information from NORAD was very interesting.
“What’s your first name Henderson?” Flint asked. Major Henderson, sitting at the communications desk looked up in surprise,
“Wha…Oh, it’s Howard, sir”
“Well, Howard, lets start figuring this out, shall we?”
Henderson looked perplexed,
“I’m not sure I know what you mean sir.”
Jack grabbed a chair and straddling it with the back of the chair against his chest, explained.
“First of all, some facts. Ten incoming missile tracks from central Asian launch sites targeted against what; empty tundra? Bogus bombers, however they did that, and no declaration of war from Moscow. There have been no other threats and central Germany is as quiet as ever.”
“I see what you’re getting at. Doesn’t seem right at all.”
“No it doesn’t.”
Flint gestured to the screens around them,
“How long till impact?”
Henderson called to the two female air force officers at the location and detection tables for an update.
“1 minute, 45 seconds.”
“Hmmm….” Jack Flint hummed to himself reflectively and then he jabbed at the communications button.
“Rock, this is Flint. Put your anti-flash visors up and turn 180 degrees from your present course. The nukes are going to go off in the next 90 seconds from my mark. Three, two, one, mark!”
The response was immediate, as though he was waiting for the call,
“Way ahead of you Jack. We’ve also detected some odd echoes about 300 miles north of us. We’ll take a look.”
“Don’t pursue until the bombs have detonated. I don’t think this is a serious attack. There won’t be any more coming.”
“Really,” The word was drawn out, “Got a hot line to the Kremlin?”
“I’ll let you know. I’m going to call Ottawa and Cheyenne Mo……,”
“Holy crap! Look at that!”
Stoneman shouted suddenly, interrupting Flint’s words.

**********​

Excerpts from “Pointing The Way; The Arrow And The Cuban Crisis” by Josephine Williams. Available from Doubleday this year. The book contains 350 pages with 14 photographs and many maps and diagrams

This topical and well timed book is based on reminisces and research by Ms. Williams both from her time as a serving military officer and her subsequent career as a social historian. Although some chapters appear to be more novelized than others (the above is a good example), the overall effect is one of ‘on-the spot’ reporting and detailed personal analysis of the situations and personalities. Many of the participants are still available for interviews and confirmation of the events of October 1966 and her subtle weaving of their words into the narrative make for an absorbing if sometimes dry read. Considering the latest McHowe inquiry into the failure of the Conservative government under Diefenbaker to cancel the huge spending on what was to be one of the most costly military blunders in history, this book only highlights the issue.

It is, however, a matter of history that Prime Minister Diefenbaker was very opposed to the continued funding of the Arrow project as illustrated in the quote below:

"Some people talk about courage. Well, I took a stand in reference to the 'Arrow.' No one wanted to take that stand.... As I look back on it, I think it was one of my decisions that was right. Here was an instrument beautiful in appearance, powerful, a tribute to Canadian production.... This instrument that was otherwise beautiful, magnificent in its concept, would have contributed little, in the changing order of things, to our national defence."
- January 25, 1963, House of Commons.

It’s just a pity that his courage did not result in the cancellation vote going his way. Perhaps the cooling down of Canada’s relations with the Eisenhower ‘military-industrial’ complex in the US would not have occurred. It seems unfortunate that Canada was in the position of a buffer zone between the Soviet Union and its cold war adversary, the United States.

The history behind the 2nd October Crisis (as it as commonly known) does bear repeating as this book is based on eye witness accounts of actions taken before, during and after October 1966.

The discovery in Cuba of formally hidden Soviet missiles in late 1965 by US intelligence created a crisis in the new Johnson administration. At first unwilling to believe that Castro and Soviet premier Leonid Brezhnev could be so aggressive and, quite frankly, stupid to provoke the US, President Johnson took almost a month before any action was taken. In addition, according to Desmond Fitzgerald, the then new CIA division chief for the Western Hemisphere is quoted as saying;

“Unfortunately, the new president isn’t as gung-ho on fighting Castro as Kennedy was.”
- March, 1964, Buenos Aires.

At first there were the typical denials by both the Soviet and Cuban governments, but publication of the CIA’s findings and detailed U2 images finally convinced the UN and the Western world that the US had a valid case against the two communist counties. Almost at once Brezhnev began a campaign vilifying the US as a country of belligerent warmongers who were threatening the sovereignty of Cuba and subsequently threatening world peace. This view took hold quickly amongst the non-aligned countries of the world and, obviously, the various Soviet ‘puppet’ regimes around the globe. Arrayed against this very vocal opposition, the US quickly and quietly ensured that NATO and their allies were ‘on board’ for any actions up-to and including war.

By July of the following year, the tensions around the world appeared to be coming to a head. No diplomatic solutions had been found and it was very unlikely that any would. Although the US had threatened war if the missiles were not removed and the Soviet Union had replied in much the same manner, it just seemed to be ‘words and fury signifying nothing’. There had been no activation of Soviet reserves, no ‘manoeuvres’ on the German central front and no additional deliveries (or attempted deliveries) of new weapons to Cuba. However, according to the CIA, the Soviet Unit was preparing for a ‘first strike’ using its huge bomber fleet and documents and photographs were produced to prove this. As we now know, much of this was faked and, looking back now, very poorly faked. However, we all fell for it.

We had all been told that NORAD was ready for anything and, if spending was anything to go by, it was. The Americans felt secure in their belief that the many squadrons of the highly advanced Arrow interceptor produced by Avro Canada should stop any bomber incursions over the North Pole and that their own aircraft would knock down any survivors. The possibility of missile attack was not seen as a very credible threat due to the supposed crudeness of the Soviet weapons and poor guidance systems. The Cuban missiles were only a threat due to their closeness. Because of this, the development of US anti-missile systems was very slow and relatively under-funded and what was available was directed against a Caribbean threat.

The major failure of the US and other western intelligence agencies to see the true state of the Soviet threat and to correctly advise their governments has been well documented elsewhere and there is no need to dwell on the subsequent inquiries and the fall of both the Pearson and Johnson administrations. No doubt, the 1966 crisis resulted in the denial of the Nobel peace prize to Lester Pearson and its award to Brezhnev for his handling of the whole Cuba issue. Suffice it to say that the demonstration of the Soviet Union’s offensive capability and the self destruction of the empty missiles over the Arctic was enough of a shock that the Western Alliance and the Soviet Union began serious efforts to reduce world tensions. The realization that John Diefenbaker was right in his attempt to cancel the Arrow project, although for the wrong reasons, took a long time to be seen. It seems that only now are we prepared for the unpleasant truths of that unfortunate time.

The world after October 1966 has become a more open and safe place since the destruction of most of the US and Soviet nuclear weapons and delivery systems under the Havana SALT Agreements of the 1970’s and the co-operation between the new Russian Federation and the United States on various areas such as space exploration, global warming and, more importantly, the elimination of various terrorist cells over the past few years. The recent de-militarization of the Korean peninsula and the resolution of the West Bank uprising in 2003 were just some of the successes of East-West co-operation. It is always a favourite alternative history exercise to speculate on the results of a retaliatory strike by President Johnson before the Soviet missiles detonated. Thank goodness we never had to live in that world.

Is this an advertisement?
 
WI there was a nuclear war after the Cuban Missile Crisis? What do you think
would have happened?

Something like this:

wicboomboom.jpg
 
The Yom Kippur War going nuclear is a good candidate.

The Pakistani-Indian standoff in 2001 is a possibility.

Then there's all those accidents, radar glitches, & computer errors which could have seen big red buttons being pushed left, right, & centre...
 
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