WI: The Western Roman Empire Survives in Africa and Italy?

[NotAMyth]

That is true, but after Justinian, this changed a lot due to immigration from Asia to Thracia, so you need to prevent that to keep Latin around. I must admit I had not thought about the Thracians and their impact. I found this in Quora; cannot say how much accuracy there is in the infos here, but it seemed relevant to the discussion.

It's a bit anachronistic, and perhaps a little exaggerated, but still essentially true. The Latin-speaking Thracians and Moesians suffered immensely due to the Hunnic raids and were exhausted by the constant Avar and Slavic incursions after Justinian basically ignored the Danubian limes. I also suspect given that Phocas's support mostly came from the rebelling Danubian soldiers, it may have been a strategic move on Heraclius's part to reduce the disproportionate influence this faction wielded in the imperial court. The timeline also makes sense since in 610, when he made the official language shift, he had just ascended the throne and would naturally have been concentrating on introducing measures to strengthen his control.

 

[Nikoloz]

Heraclius' decision to change the language of government came after the heavily Latinized parts of the Balkans were, by and large, lost to the Slavs, including along with much of Italy to the Lombards. As a result the only territorially sound and Latin-speaking area left to the Empire was the distant Exarchate of Africa (which, ironically, Heraclius had come from). At that point it does make sense to question the tradition of using Latin for higher-level administration in Constantinople.

The OP's POD will inevitably result in drastic changes to the timeline, and it is far from certain that the Eastern Empire will still lose most of the Balkans to a Slavic invasion.

 

[Miguel Lanius]

I am sorry, could you elaborate on the first part? I do not get how the Germanic culture which IOTL, despite two Romano-Germanic kingdoms centered around Italy, one of which lasted 200 years, left only relics of its existence (like, say, the fact that "war" in Italian is "guerra" and not, say, "bello") somehow becomes more dominant despite the survival of the Western Empire (which IMHO is related to relying less on Germanic troops if anything).

The Roman forces were increasingly germanized. So its a simple matter of time until a german general takes over.

Hey, Portuguese has that relic too.

I don't think it will become a german country or anything like that, but we might see germanic rulership at some point. Not to mention, influence from germanic countries will come up eventually, even if by osmosis.

Besides, if the WRE survives, it serves better to Constantinople as a junior partner granting stability and commerce in the Central Med; no point in reannexing it (yes, Justinian, I am looking at you). Besides, at some point the language of administration will eventually become Greek anyhow, so we will jut see a different " Rhoman vs Latin" dynamic, which effectively will be a derby.

Does it, really? Don't forget: Constantinople pretty much left the West high and dry, sure they help out Julius Nepos' for a while, but after he died, they pretty much reunified the titles.

Also don't forget: A WRE can easily become refugee to conspirators, usurpers, or even end up with a usurper leading it.

As for the Alps, a stable allied Burgundian buffer state is a lot better, and if the Frankish realm gets fragmented early on, sky's the limit. I would be interested in seeing a tripartite Med: ERE, WRE, Visigoths (preferably retaining Aquitaine).

A stable allied buffer state is good, but fortifications are always handy. The alps are a very good border defense area.

A tripatite med would be interesting.

Once the Visigoths take over the Iberian peninsula, I think their obvious targets would be Roman North Africa and Galia. Hmmmm... that might explains things like a Roman-Burgundian alliance.

If the Visigoths lose Aquitaine, it might become quadripartite.

If the western romans last and become stable, I think a long-run objective would be to try an invasion of Hispania.

I think the biggest possible sledgehammer you could take to this system, is either a visigoth civil war fragmenting the country, or the Eastern Romans losing their dominion of the Middle East - either to Sassanid Persia (unlikely, but butterflies are weird) or more likely, to the Arabs.