WI: The Western Confederacy defeated the US

Chimera0205

Banned
What if Little Turtle managed to defeat the US to such a degree that the US has no choice but to recognize there sovereignty. A combination of Little Turtles genius, American incompetence and a metric fuckton of support from British still salty about the revolution war allows the Western Confederacy to defeat and slaughter Anthony Waynes army whole sale and that combined with heavy pressure from the British force the US to recognize Western Confederacy sovereignty over the Midwest. The British will continue to prop up the Confederacy with guns and training as a counter to America. What happens from here?
 
What happens? Nappy. Brits get distracted, everyone wants to fight them(over land or improvement), war starts in 1808 rather than 1812.
 

Chimera0205

Banned
What happens? Nappy. Brits get distracted, everyone wants to fight them(over land or improvement), war starts in 1808 rather than 1812.
But with a stronger native state assisting the british dont they stand a better chance if beating the americans. The war was already a draw OTL.
 
So what they lose and then America tries again the Ohio valley is much to valuable to not acquire. And the natives don't have anywhere close to the population numbers to sustain their state long term. More people lived in Virginia of the time than the native population of the entire area of the Western Confederacy. There is what somewhere between 700,000 and 850,000 people living in Virginia of the time compared to at the most 150,000 natives.
 

Chimera0205

Banned
So what they lose and then America tries again the Ohio valley is much to valuable to not acquire. And the natives don't have anywhere close to the population numbers to sustain their state long term. More people lived in Virginia of the time than the native population of the entire area of the Western Confederacy. There is what somewhere between 700,000 and 850,000 people living in Virginia of the time compared to at the most 150,000 natives.
what if it becomes a british protectorate after the war of 1812. they might survive if the brits commit to keeping them alive.
 
But with a stronger native state assisting the british dont they stand a better chance if beating the americans. The war was already a draw OTL.

True. Then again, loses in war tend to be the thing that triggers military reforms, and a US getting ready for a round 2 is going to be far more likely to enter the war of 1812 with a better equipped, properly organized,real professional army rather than just impromtu militias.
 
But with a stronger native state assisting the british dont they stand a better chance if beating the americans. The war was already a draw OTL.

It was a draw only because of the 100 Days IMO. The British got a rude wakeup call to put N America on the back pedal and sort out Europe. But they had all the strategic initiative by 1814
 

Chimera0205

Banned
It was a draw only because of the 100 Days IMO. The British got a rude wakeup call to put N America on the back pedal and sort out Europe. But they had all the strategic initiative by 1814
could more interests in NA in the form of a decently powerful protectorate be enough for the British to give the Americans a more thorough defeat.
 
what if it becomes a british protectorate after the war of 1812. they might survive if the brits commit to keeping them alive.

Which will last until trade privileges that could be gained with America outweighs the benefits gained by supporting a native state that really doesn't make them any money.
 

Chimera0205

Banned
There's plenty of beaver in Rupert's Land, and it's cheaper than engaging inn a proxy war.
yes but a proxy war also weakens the us and given that the us had known interest in canada at the time weakening the us is in the brits best interest. its also worth pointing out that countrys frequently do nonsensical things in order to spite there rivals.
 
The United States will gear up for a bigger and better lead expedition in a few years. They have numbers, money and arms the natives can't match.
 

Philip

Donor
yes but a proxy war also weakens the us and given that the us had known interest in canada

Unless the British are willing to invade the US, it is a losing proposition. It might stall the US for a few years, But it should be obvious to the British that the end result (barrung an actual British invasion) will be a US victory that creates a stronger US army and Great Lakes navy. Look at recent British history in North America. The American colonists learn a lot from the French and Indian War, and that knowledge was turned against the British.

The Americans weakness at this time is lack of federal forces due to the several states keeping their own minor forces. A proxy war with the British in the NWT will reverse this.

There net result is a larger, not reduced, threat to Canada.

at the time weakening the us is in the brits best interest.

I think I'm going to need some proof that weaking the US is more important than, say, developing and expending her position in India.

A weakened US is likely to look to Britain's rivals for support. Is that in Britain's best interest?

its also worth pointing out that countrys frequently do nonsensical things in order to spite there rivals.

You know what the British historically did far more often than spite rivals? Protect their trading interests. British trade with the US is worth far to much to risk over land they can't exploit. Expending British interests in other areas such as India offers far more potential. I suspect you far over estimate the British elites desire to spite the US.
 
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