WI: The Wedding of Araya Abeba & Kuroda Masako Took Place

Starting Premise
So, to provide some context to this what if, pre WW2, Ethiopia and Japan were rather close, all things consider. With Japan having sold a good amount of munitions to them in the past and there being extensive talks of Japan aiding Ethiopia in modernizing in exchange for cotton and land for cultivation, as well as talks of 100,000 Japanese planters helping with irrigation systems. These plans never quite came to fruition, due to the failure of Nikkei-Sha (as it was called) though much of that seems rooted in politics.

What's more, this relationship that had started in 1911, and grown especially by 1924 and both nations had high ranking figures with strong ideological motives such as ideas of their 'races' being historically linked as well as the more blatant factor of both being odd one's out in a West dominated world. Thus, despite the failure of Nikkei-Sha, this close relationship (Again relatively speaking) stayed true up until Japan joined the Axis powers, as before that, while Japan felt they couldn't directly aid Ethiopia, there were reports of them trying to stoke stronger resistance.

As a result of these and other factors, when Prince (Technically lord) Lij Araya Abeba, a nephew to the reigning monarch of Ethiopia visited Japan, he expressed a desire to find a Japanese bride in 1931. The whole process was spread out over several years, and was a bit anarchic, hence why it was not until 1933 that the call to find brides rang out, eventually settling on Kuroda Masako, daughter of Viscount Hiroyuki Kuroda. As it is, the heads of the royal families and nations seemed only somewhat keyed into the whole matter and at different times can be seen to have liked the idea or been absolutely vexed by it due to the problems it would cause.

This analysis goes into a much more detailed discussion of the proposed marriage and the politics surrounding it.

These problems especially included the collective West chucking a wobbly over it, fearing an "Anti white supremacy alliance" and Italy in particular being terrified and enraged that "White dolls are being replaced by Yellow dolls in the hands of Africans!" and other unhinged nonsense that wouldn't have happened for marriages between two European powers. None of this was helped by Kitagawa Takashi, who in 1933 made a lot of overblown suggestions in his negotiations with Ethiopia that the Western Powers got stressed about, which also sort of led to the marriage and these talks being blurred together. This wasn't helped by certain Japanese press groups over reporting on these subjects, which damaged Ethiopia's confidence due to the sensationalization.

As it was, while Italy's invasion of Ethiopia was pretty much inevitable barring some massive shift up, it only took Italy two months after the marriage was cancelled to begin planning for Italy's conquest of Ethiopia, overseen by Marshal Pietro Badoglio, chief of Italy's General Staff. Said war began in 1935, not four yours after this marriage was first suggested by Lij Araya Abeba and was led by Emilio De Bono and included two hundred thousand soldiers, before he was replaced by Pietro Badoglio, because Mussolini got impatient. Ironically, despite being one of the biggest critics of the marriage & Ethiopia existing, Hitler supplied Ethiopia for a time to spite Italy and weaken them so they'd be more dependent on him in the future, which drew out the war for two years.

That cap off wasn't strictly necessary, but I felt it was useful to see what followed immediately afterwards.

With all that in mind, what if the marriage had gone ahead?

One might question if that is even possible, but I could see it potentially happening,

Japan during this period wasn't against thumbing its nose at Western Powers, hence bailing on the League of Nations while all this was going on. In that context, if the political elites were more keyed into the whole process over just sort of letting it happen the marriage could have come about much earlier, possibly before the invasion of Manchuria (Though that is likely asking too much unless certain soldiers are moved around for some reason)

In this case, being partially inspired by spite and a desire to make a point about not letting Western Powers control them, especially if they thought Ethiopia was going to be a cash cow. The people running things exhibiting more control over the proceedings may also have limited just how messy and long the process was, particularly in terms of news coverage which while not ending Western paranoia, might lessen the overall chaos surrounding it.

But let's say it does happen, maybe very quickly or even when initially announced, what does one think might happen?

I could see Mussolini hastily ordering an invasion before they were even ready and Japan perhaps now being more obliged/justified in offering aid, or already having sent certain gaming changing elements that would help. Though how that would be received world wide is a question and whether it would make enough of a difference to spare Ethiopia occupation s also in question, but those are I feel, interesting questions.

Plus how might it impact whether Japan even 'joins' the Axis power or does its own thing? Granted that's kind of how it worked anyway given they were essentially co belligerents, but lacking even that tentative tie might influence their overall strategies. Plus, as noted if it happened early enough it might inadvertently butterfly away other details as well and radically change the oncoming war's form and its conclusion.

Soooo yeah, thoughts?
 
Well I have some time, so here's an idea for how such a timeline might go, though its a bit 'contrived' no more than some real historical events I hope.

The marriage proposed:
Word of Araya Abeba's proposal of finding a Japanese Bride escalated well beyond his caretakers and managed to reach the ear of key figures including the Prime Minsters and Emperor himself. Having been pleased by the proposed prospects in Ethiopia and interpreting this idea as a sign of Ethiopia's national commitment they threw their support behind it in early April. As a result of this far more direct and careful management the story as less sensationalized and the process far more efficient, with the young Kuroda Masako managing to garner attention as the proposed bride in early July and the wedding itself was announced for early December. The Ethiopian government was rather taken aback by these hasty developments, and concerned for the wider reaching implications, but also did not wish to offend their new trading partner and risk a valuable ally.

Knock on Effects:
The most notable consequence of this was the quiet death of the Manchuria Invasion scheme; this was due to the Kōdōha being heavily monarchist and thus not wanting to disrupt plans being overseen by the emperor. The actual bombing did go ahead as planned, but the resulting explosion was as feeble as it historically was and that was enough to convince the local schemers to belay their plan until the marriage was dealt with and they could manufacture a better inciting incident. The international community had mixed reactions to these events, the loudest of which came from Germany and Italy, the latter being further inflamed by the rhetoric of Hitler as well as Mussolini's own anger and dread at the prospect of missing his chance at claiming Ethiopia; but with less sensationalized coverage, while Western powers were still concerned, it was not as much as OTL.

The Marriage:
The marriage was a subtly complicated affair, with a theoretically agnostic but traditional Japanese wedding taking place in the capital in a more ceremonial context, with the planned 'true' wedding to be performed in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia's capital under Christian rites. Thus in early January, once the excitement had died down, Japan launched a small collection pf vessels housing the regal couple, an host of soldiers heavily taken from the Kōdōha faction and naval forces, as well as the first of what was expected to be many civilians. Having ad a year to acclimate to the idea, Ethiopia spared little expense in welcoming the young couple and foreign allies, even as a pallor of tension hovered in the back of their minds thanks to Italy's increasingly aggressive posturing.

The Short War:
While all of Europe was to one degree or another offended by what they saw as Japanese arrogance and scheming, Italy was the most offended of all and growing more so by the month as new ships bringing Japanese migrants arrived in Ethiopia pushing the number there well over twenty thousand. Because of growing fear that Japan would come to rule the land, and with Hitler seizing total power in 1933, Mussolini launched a hasty invasion, months before his more conservative generals said they were ready. Instead the war was left in the hands of yes-men and ideologues who sought a quick and decisive victory through overwhelming force and glory. At first they met with success, penetrating deep into Ethiopia, taking several cities and key locations.

However this ill prepared and rushed war would quickly turn disastrous, as supply lines strained and Ethiopian ambushers cut the invaders off from their supplies. Meanwhile Japanese soldiers and their Ethiopian contemporaries would surround and and overwhelm several key Italian bases, some even goin so far as to engage in suicidal bomb charges to wipe out enemy supplies, forcing the Italians to fight on local terms and losing out, hard. Even those captured weren't wholly spared humiliation and the stripping off their equipment to bolster the local armies. Kōdōha leaders went a step even further however, trying to inspire rebellions in Eritrea and causing a string of border conflicts in the region with Italian occupiers. Only careful diplomacy on the part of Ethiopia & Japan' s leaders stopped the incident from escalating further, and led to a withdrawal and re-establishment of previous borders.

The Fall out:
Europe and other such powers were up in arms about Japan's arrogance and expansionistic tendencies, though be it less so than if they had, for example, conquered an entire country and the humiliation of a 'white' power by Japanese and African forces led to a wave of racially motivated violence, especially in Germany. Under the pretext of punishing Japan for their acts in Eritrea, European powers in the Pacific Ocean created a borderline bulwark to deny further ships going to or from Ethiopia without monstrous tariffs being paid, while the US raised the price of oil, but did not cut it off entirely. Italy did all but swear they would be back for revenge and began preparing for their next invasion.

Among the Japanese Diaspora, this upswing in violence, especially in Germany, led to many trying to return home but finding the way barred and having to stay in Ethiopia or rely on Thailand to return them. Ethiopia for its part was left scrambling, trying to assuage the Japanese migrants and their own citizens to avoid internal unrest, while desperately trying to modernize as quickly as possible, while grappling with being further isolated in terms of trade and wholly aware another invasion was only years away. Japan meanwhile was incensed, but shockingly little anger fell on Ethiopia as it was instead turned on Europe for its hypocrisy and double standards; though the civilian political class also used this effort to try and further divide factions like the Kōdōha in a bid to gain greater control over the armed forces with limited results.

Long Term Consequences:
Japan would re-focus its military efforts towards the South, seeking to break their reliance on Western powers by securing oil and rubber resources in in the Sothern oceans, as well as regaining access to their now functionally lost citizenry. Thus the Nanshin-ron would become the new dominant military plan, leaving the mainland as a problem to be conquered in the future, ensuring the military forces they bring to bear in the South-West are incredibly potent compared to OTL. Ethiopia would continue preparing for the next invasion and many of the Japanese there would eventually form a rather wealthy minority community in the capital, thanks in part to government sponsorship that would last comfortably into the modern day. As a result of these factors, Germany likely retains its tied to the Republic of China, relying on them for labor and resources to help fund their war machine, though the Chinese government of the time would largely avoid participating in war directly due to their ideology of "internal problems first, external problems later."

Thoughts?
 
Some additional thoughts, less sure on the believability of these but I imagine in the lead up for Nanshin-ron Japan tries to play the USA & Russia off one another; their ties with both are pretty tense, especially Russia, but they'd shown a willingness to negotiate in the past.
  • On Russia, without Manchuria and the ensuing conquest Japan looks like less of a threat to Stalin who wants to focus on the European theaters, thus he'd have plenty of reason to be accommodating if it means they go South.
  • The US obviously does not want Japan working with Russia and they also have a fairly isolationist populace who might not care over much about what's happening in European colonies, though racism might weaken that stance.
  • Japan's interests would be keeping up the flow of oil & other materials necessary to wage war, ensuring that their pre-existing conquests aren't threatened & ideally avoiding even having to fight the US or Russia, yet at least.
One thing you might notice is this version of Japan seems a bit more cautious and less prone to kitten strangling than OTL's.

A lot of this is because they avoided the invasion of Manchuria and what came after it (The Shanghai incident of 1932 & the Nanjing Massacre of 1937 especially). The general summary is, a slew of brutal conquests, an increasing uncontrollable military and an attempted coup that further weakened the civilian government, which led to stuff like the "comfort stations" policies to try and reign in the troops.

As it is, none of that's happened here, and so while Japan is definitely still an imperialistic, colonial empire, and while soldiers are definitely doing things wrong, the bastardy hasn't totally run amuck yet as it had on OTL, nor has their ego totally run away with them, even in the leadership. Thus they're more akin to their contemporaries, still not good cos empire and colonial, but not nearly as out of control.

Two things I am very unsure about is whether or not Japan would try to take the Philippines or leave it alone to avoid antagonizing the US, or if the US would care enough to get involved if they did. Or if Japan might try something more deniable, like funding as rebellion but officially staying out of the country and if that might make a difference. Same for if they attacked Australia, but barring some sabotage raids, anything more would likely be army running amuck like in Manchuria OTL and is rather 'far away' anyway.

Thoughts?
 
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Definitely pretty fascinating! I don't see the blockade of Eritrea happening since I don't think Europe would be caring enough to do that, especially while they are having plenty of issues and so on.

Japan will still be pretty afraid of the USSR though and Japan with WW2... well, I imagine they may still end up in war with the Americans because of the concerns over territorial expansions. Because Japan still had their ambitions and would exploit Axis vs Allies for their own gains, but that may still drag the Americans against them.
 
Definitely pretty fascinating! I don't see the blockade of Eritrea happening since I don't think Europe would be caring enough to do that, especially while they are having plenty of issues and so on.
Thanks, glad you think so!

I mostly figured there'd be a pseudo blockade to Ethiopia cos most of Europe was seemingly up in arms about the marriage and were quick to try and push Japan back into its box when they took Manchuria and thus them humiliating another European power and trying to get grabby with some of its possessions might inspire similar degrees of reprisal, especially if it can be used to extract money out of Japan.
Japan will still be pretty afraid of the USSR though and Japan with WW2... well, I imagine they may still end up in war with the Americans because of the concerns over territorial expansions. Because Japan still had their ambitions and would exploit Axis vs Allies for their own gains, but that may still drag the Americans against them.
Oh definitely, especially as they haven't had string after string of victories in this timeline, not to say they still haven't mostly been successful, but they are definitely far less drunk on "We can win everything" juice at this stage.

I'm unsure myself, they were leery of attacking the US for years OTL and here they are both less confident and have less reason to do so; America upped the price of oil for a bit but that's been the worst of it so they aren't that desperate and they have no ties to anyone who'd encourage them to pick that fight save those invested in the Philippines.

Honestly I've actually been sort of wondering if the logical development for this timeline would sort of be:

"Italy invades Ethiopia again, thus causing Japan to launch their invasions of the colonies when Europe decides to be unhelpful, leading to Europe sending forces to counteract them, & only then do Hitler & company make their moves against the rest of Europe feeling they are weak, but then quickly being hit by Russia who's also using this chance to expand, & European forces coming 'back; to defend the Homefront. Meanwhile the Americas just sort of sits on the sidelines."

Not sure how realistic that would be though.
 
Thanks, glad you think so!

I mostly figured there'd be a pseudo blockade to Ethiopia cos most of Europe was seemingly up in arms about the marriage and were quick to try and push Japan back into its box when they took Manchuria and thus them humiliating another European power and trying to get grabby with some of its possessions might inspire similar degrees of reprisal, especially if it can be used to extract money out of Japan.
They're all in the midst of the Great Depression, so I doubt they can really do much except saber rattle, especially when everyone has their own issues. Plus, it's Italy. I doubt it's gonna cause that much of an issue.
Oh definitely, especially as they haven't had string after string of victories in this timeline, not to say they still haven't mostly been successful, but they are definitely far less drunk on "We can win everything" juice at this stage.

I'm unsure myself, they were leery of attacking the US for years OTL and here they are both less confident and have less reason to do so; America upped the price of oil for a bit but that's been the worst of it so they aren't that desperate and they have no ties to anyone who'd encourage them to pick that fight save those invested in the Philippines.

Honestly I've actually been sort of wondering if the logical development for this timeline would sort of be:

"Italy invades Ethiopia again, thus causing Japan to launch their invasions of the colonies when Europe decides to be unhelpful, leading to Europe sending forces to counteract them, & only then do Hitler & company make their moves against the rest of Europe feeling they are weak, but then quickly being hit by Russia who's also using this chance to expand, & European forces coming 'back; to defend the Homefront. Meanwhile the Americas just sort of sits on the sidelines."

Not sure how realistic that would be though.
Well... things become weird. I don't know if Italy would invade Ethiopia again. All depends what Hitler would do given how he pretty much can cow Mussolini. Maybe focus on Europe and get north Africa from the French for now so would lead to traditional European theater. Japan is still in imperial panic, so they may try to get involved with taking European colonies during the invasion. Ethiopia would likely not want to get involved knowing this whole thing would end badly.

I could still see them in some sort of involvement if by possibly ending up as a safe haven for Jews and the Germans would happy dumping them all there and so alot of them would flock over to Ethiopia I suspect. Japan may try and go after European colonial possessions, but still piss off Americans. Could still have Pearl Harbor and the US ending up in WW2, just with Ethiopia as a neutral power of sorts (some may be torn in getting land of the Horn of Africa, but I suspect they'd view that as way too risky.) Ethiopia likely focus as a Jewish haven while reinforcing their claim on Eritrea.

Like, the imperial sentiment was legit kinda nuts, so I do see Japan still likely poking the Aerican eagle with a stick and they get the snot beaten out of them. Honestly, a fair chunk may go as planned though with less Jewish folk dying in the Holocaust (though still a great deal sadly). That said, Ethiopia inadvertingly becoing a haven for them will mean we likely won't get Israel and instead it will be Ethiopia. That or maybe something odder and French Somaliland/Djibouti gets annexed by Ethiopia and that becomes an autonomous region as a Jewish homeland of sorts.

Naturally, will butterfly alot of stuff with Middle Eastern conflicts and the like. Ethiopia meanwhile would likely grow from Jewish and Japanese investments and definitely be able to keep up more and more.
 
They're all in the midst of the Great Depression, so I doubt they can really do much except saber rattle, especially when everyone has their own issues. Plus, it's Italy. I doubt it's gonna cause that much of an issue.
In truth that's mostly what this was, along with trying to pull some money out of Japan with tariffs for travelling through their ports; as it is the reason was less "We must protect Italy" and more far "We need to remind Japan of its place." along with a pretext to try and extract money from a nation.

Well... things become weird.

I don't know if Italy would invade Ethiopia again. All depends what Hitler would do given how he pretty much can cow Mussolini. Maybe focus on Europe and get north Africa from the French for now so would lead to traditional European theater. Japan is still in imperial panic, so they may try to get involved with taking European colonies during the invasion. Ethiopia would likely not want to get involved knowing this whole thing would end badly.

I could still see them in some sort of involvement if by possibly ending up as a safe haven for Jews and the Germans would happy dumping them all there and so alot of them would flock over to Ethiopia I suspect. Japan may try and go after European colonial possessions, but still piss off Americans. Could still have Pearl Harbor and the US ending up in WW2, just with Ethiopia as a neutral power of sorts (some may be torn in getting land of the Horn of Africa, but I suspect they'd view that as way too risky.) Ethiopia likely focus as a Jewish haven while reinforcing their claim on Eritrea.

Like, the imperial sentiment was legit kinda nuts, so I do see Japan still likely poking the Aerican eagle with a stick and they get the snot beaten out of them. Honestly, a fair chunk may go as planned though with less Jewish folk dying in the Holocaust (though still a great deal sadly). That said, Ethiopia inadvertingly becoing a haven for them will mean we likely won't get Israel and instead it will be Ethiopia. That or maybe something odder and French Somaliland/Djibouti gets annexed by Ethiopia and that becomes an autonomous region as a Jewish homeland of sorts.

Naturally, will butterfly alot of stuff with Middle Eastern conflicts and the like. Ethiopia meanwhile would likely grow from Jewish and Japanese investments and definitely be able to keep up more and more.
Indeed XD

I figure their pride and goals in Africa wouldn't allow anything else, and that Hitler might like the idea because if it forces Japan into action it might make the rest of Europe send forced elsewhere making his invasions easier, but I am unsure he'd think of that or could rely on it, hence me being unsure on these factors. Honestly the way imagined Japan's invasion going was fairly similar to OTL, the colonies are a bit more prepared but were still largely neglected, while Japan is now bringing to bear like half its military might in contrast to the relative handful so breaking through Oceania and then sending some ships to Ethiopia seems fairly straightforward, provided they don't start a contest with the US or on the mainland that ties up their military. Interesting idea with Ethiopia becoming a safe haven for Jewish people, that seems pretty plausible, at least I think it does, I'd need to look up more on the topic but its a clever idea.

I'll be honest I don't see why Pearl Harbor would happen in this timeline, it feels kind of deterministic to make Japan do it when their relationship with the US is far less tense and they have nothing to gain from it and no one egging them on. I did dabble in Ethiopia scooping up many of the surrounding colonies in the chaos and collapse of European investments in the regions.

As noted though its vastly less out of control here because they hadn't managed to take over half of China, didn't have the coup attempt that knee-capped the civilian government, and aren't straining under years of embargo from the US. Yeah there's still imperialist sentiment, but its much more focused on Europe, there doesn't seem to be much reason to go at the US.
 
Sorry for the double post but hey its my thread XD

Anyway, as it is, yeah I find it unlikely Japan would try and pick a fight with the US in this timeline.

In the OTL, they had ties to the other Axis powers who were both encouraging such an attack and whose actions ensured Europe was too tied up to really be a problem for Japans imperial interests, leaving the US as the only major foe not heavily invested on the other side of the planet. What's more in OTL, Japan and the US had been getting increasingly belligerent with each other since Japan's conquest of Manchuria and the various conquests that followed, causing the US to cut off access to metals and oils ETC. This both made Japan more desperate and also gave them more reason to just generally hate the USA; which when combined with their string of easy victories up to now, led them to eventually decide they could take the US down if they moved quickly and devastatingly enough; they were wrong.

In this timeline however, almost none of that is true.

They have no ties to Hitler or the other fascist movements due to stepping on their feet with Ethiopia and Eritrea. They haven't invaded Manchuria or anywhere else (yet) meaning their ego and military are still somewhat in check. Now the US did use a pretext to up the price of oil, but all Japan needed to do to get it down again was start vauging about maybe working with Russia and the price went back to normal. Other than that their relationship has remained stable, neither one likes the other, but there's no escalating tensions, especially when compared with the European powers whom Japan is going to need to blitz through if they want to regain access to Ethiopia and their missing citizens. As a result I think Japans strategy with the US would be doing everything they can to keep the US out of the war, rather than try to engage them on it and win; likely encouraging isolationist policies and a general "Hey why do you care what happens to European colonies?" attitude.

The only thing I can see causing ideas on this front would be the Philippines and possibly picking a too aggressive fight with Australia, neither of which may be enough to compel the US to war.
 
Tje Japanese would still have imperial ambitions. Being with Ethiopia would not stop their attempts at expanding into the weakened China and taking land from there. Like, yes they may be with Ethiopia, but that's not gonna butterfly away the interest in Manchuria and other Chinese land. Also, I don't think the imperial Japanese would work out an agreement with the Soviet Union. Yes, they had the non-aggression treaty, but I don't think Japan will be getting any oil from them.

Like, what's exactly stopping Japan from being like OTL, especially since this doesn't address any of the preexisting factors in it.
 
I will be the annoying guy who waltzes in and shouts "you're all wrong!"

First, sure it makes sense for Japan to avoid war with the US... and yet that's what happened OTL. They didn't do it because it was about to happen, they did it because they thought it would happen eventually, and the economics meant the US would outpace their wartime production.

Second, even if Japan goes for a southern strategy, that means war with colonial powers... which means the US will not be pleased. It means following along with Nazi wars (IE exploiting the fall of Netherlands and France in Europe) and you can bet your hat that Japan will carry out atrocities as per OTL. I do not see why Japan would be any more tame. To say "japan would not carry out atrocities because they are being careful' is to ignore all the things leading up to the Japanese war in China. It should be clear to everyone that both the Kodoha and their opposition were BOTH in favour of war with China.

Edit: I also forgot to mention the massive amount of nationalist and racialist propaganda that Japan was feeding into its school system at the time. There is no way Japan would treat the locals of Indochina or Indonesia as equals because "they are being careful'"
 
Tje Japanese would still have imperial ambitions.

Being with Ethiopia would not stop their attempts at expanding into the weakened China and taking land from there. Like, yes they may be with Ethiopia, but that's not gonna butterfly away the interest in Manchuria and other Chinese land.

Also, I don't think the imperial Japanese would work out an agreement with the Soviet Union. Yes, they had the non-aggression treaty, but I don't think Japan will be getting any oil from them.

Like, what's exactly stopping Japan from being like OTL, especially since this doesn't address any of the preexisting factors in it.
I never said they didn't, in fact I was very explicitly noting their imperials ambitions, its just that for the time being said ambitions are exclusively south facing over spreading them across Manchuria, Mongolia and China and that their military and command haven't gotten quite as drunk on their own egos yet and so will be more controlled about it.

I'm less sure on this in both directions to be honest, I agree they'd retain an interest in conquering those lands and they still do here as well, its just a matter of priorities. I would also note that their invasion of Manchuria started out as soldiers breaking ranks to do it on their own and it was only their staggering success that got them rewarded rather than punished.

They weren't actually, they were suggesting they might do so if the US didn't back off on their oil price hike, the US kept at it for awhile but when none aggression treaties starting being discussed in greater detail, they backed down.

I... Outlined that in the earlier posts and all the ensuing one's?

I will be the annoying guy who waltzes in and shouts "you're all wrong!"

First, sure it makes sense for Japan to avoid war with the US... and yet that's what happened OTL. They didn't do it because it was about to happen, they did it because they thought it would happen eventually, and the economics meant the US would outpace their wartime production.

Second, even if Japan goes for a southern strategy, that means war with colonial powers... which means the US will not be pleased. It means following along with Nazi wars (IE exploiting the fall of Netherlands and France in Europe) and you can bet your hat that Japan will carry out atrocities as per OTL. I do not see why Japan would be any more tame. To say "japan would not carry out atrocities because they are being careful' is to ignore all the things leading up to the Japanese war in China. It should be clear to everyone that both the Kodoha and their opposition were BOTH in favour of war with China.

Edit: I also forgot to mention the massive amount of nationalist and racialist propaganda that Japan was feeding into its school system at the time. There is no way Japan would treat the locals of Indochina or Indonesia as equals because "they are being careful'"
I feel like people aren't actually reading my posts to be honest :/

Sure, but as noted in OTL they were part of the Axis powers who also wanted them do to that and had a string of massive conquests under their belts; in this TL they don't have either of those things going for them, either at all, or not to the same degree. I do agree that Japan going after other colonial powers would tick the US off, the question is, how much? Because even in OTL the US was relatively unresponsive until they personally were attacked.

The reason I said less kitten strangling evil is because, based on the resources I read through, Japan's extremism increased over the years but it wasn't the starting point default. Some easy examples, in early and mid stages of their colonization of Korea they still had stiff like Korean language and cultural courses at the schools, but then steadily and then very quick began phasing them out as they became more zealous. Things like "Comfort Stations" weren't even a concept until after the army had long control of itself several times and engaged in acts of mass brutality. What's more, the attempted coup which happened OTL but didn't happen here did huge damage to the civilian government and gave more power to the military which allowed for further extremism to be fostered. Countries don't go from Zero, to fifty, to one hundred without steps being taken in between.

... OK but I never said they wouldn't be shit? I outright wrote as such in my posts?
 
I never said they didn't, in fact I was very explicitly noting their imperials ambitions, its just that for the time being said ambitions are exclusively south facing over spreading them across Manchuria, Mongolia and China and that their military and command haven't gotten quite as drunk on their own egos yet and so will be more controlled about it.

I'm less sure on this in both directions to be honest, I agree they'd retain an interest in conquering those lands and they still do here as well, its just a matter of priorities. I would also note that their invasion of Manchuria started out as soldiers breaking ranks to do it on their own and it was only their staggering success that got them rewarded rather than punished.

They weren't actually, they were suggesting they might do so if the US didn't back off on their oil price hike, the US kept at it for awhile but when none aggression treaties starting being discussed in greater detail, they backed down.

I... Outlined that in the earlier posts and all the ensuing one's?


I feel like people aren't actually reading my posts to be honest :/

Sure, but as noted in OTL they were part of the Axis powers who also wanted them do to that and had a string of massive conquests under their belts; in this TL they don't have either of those things going for them, either at all, or not to the same degree. I do agree that Japan going after other colonial powers would tick the US off, the question is, how much? Because even in OTL the US was relatively unresponsive until they personally were attacked.

The reason I said less kitten strangling evil is because, based on the resources I read through, Japan's extremism increased over the years but it wasn't the starting point default. Some easy examples, in early and mid stages of their colonization of Korea they still had stiff like Korean language and cultural courses at the schools, but then steadily and then very quick began phasing them out as they became more zealous. Things like "Comfort Stations" weren't even a concept until after the army had long control of itself several times and engaged in acts of mass brutality. What's more, the attempted coup which happened OTL but didn't happen here did huge damage to the civilian government and gave more power to the military which allowed for further extremism to be fostered. Countries don't go from Zero, to fifty, to one hundred without steps being taken in between.

... OK but I never said they wouldn't be shit? I outright wrote as such in my posts?
Ok well in response, I have to ask if you read my post lol

What's stopping then from going "kitten strangling evil"? I know they didn't go from zero to fifty, but they were going that way. If I'm driving to my grandma's house, I'm not just gonna end up somewhere else because the cost of bread changed. Something has to change their course.
 
Ok well in response, I have to ask if you read my post lol

What's stopping then from going "kitten strangling evil"? I know they didn't go from zero to fifty, but they were going that way. If I'm driving to my grandma's house, I'm not just gonna end up somewhere else because the cost of bread changed. Something has to change their course.
... I have outlined it in my posts and I outlined it in my response?
 
Like, I'll try and do so again PolishMagnet.

Because of a combination of the bomb in the Manchuria incident being shit and the Kōdōha being royalists not wanting to fuck up the emperors plan, they delayed their operation, thus no Manchuria conflict or mass expansion. Plans to pick it up again later were killed in the cradle thanks to the conflict in Ethiopia and the civilian government managing to claw back a little control by sending away much of the Kōdōha to basically be Ethiopia/Italy's problems. The ensuing barricade in Oceania making it hard for diaspora to return home has also forced the Japanese military to zero in on South West as their main priority so getting away with starting shit in the North is not doable.

This is because that whole operation started at some low/middle ranked people disobeying their orders to start the conflict and their overall success led to the extremist right wing factions gaining more power, Japan being locked into war footing, and escalated tensions with other nations. Everything from the 'Comfort Stations' to the increasing expansion into Mongolia and China, as well as the increasing influence of the hard right fascist movements can all be tied back to this event and what followed it.

Especially as it led to a coup attempt by the Kōdōha, that while failing, further undermined the civilian government and gave more centralized strength to the military. This led to Japan walking out on the League of Nations thanks to their criticism of Japan's expansion/War Crimes and to a string of victories that further fueled nationalistic egomania and further eroded the governments ability to reign in the military, as well as any none hard right leaning sentiment.

As a result, Japan's empire is still what it was pre Manchuria in the OTL, with the civilian government in a slightly stronger position, and the hard right, while still the dominant faction, not in a position of essentially uncontested power and more pointedly, not drunk on success or increasing desperation for resources. They're still an Empire, and it still sucks to be anyone but ethnic Japanese in it, its just not as wildly out of control as it became in OTL, yet.
 
the civilian government managing to claw back a little control by sending away much of the Kōdōha to basically be Ethiopia/Italy's problems.
Ok and as I said before, Kodoha was not the only expansionist group. In fact Kodoha and Toseiha were more loose groupings. I feel like you are also glossing over the fact that Kodoha lost IOTL. "Sending away" the Kodoha officers would not really make them a non-issue, after all they were "sent away" to Korea and China and that didn't really help.
This is because that whole operation started at some low/middle ranked people disobeying their orders to start the conflict and their overall success led to the extremist right wing factions gaining more power
Ehhh low/middle ranked people? Kodoha afaik was not restricted to low officers, though I could be wrong. Also, the trend of starting wars against government wishes started earlier, with the invasion of Taiwan. Japan's civilian government was right wing to begin with, which put in place the education system that directly led to worsening nationalism (at least, IMO)
the civilian government in a slightly stronger position, and the hard right, while still the dominant faction, not in a position of essentially uncontested power and more pointedly, not drunk on success
I mean...were they drunk on success in OTL? They were losing in China and distracted from it by doing other wars anyways. Anyways, I could see a right wing civ government timeline, but I think they'd still be ruthless. Uncontested power leads you to the same thing that happened OTL: Toseiha wins the 30s struggle, then you get the parties "uniting" into the imperial aid association. With no opposition, it's not really a civilian government anymore and the nationalism with snowball again, as OTL.
 
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Like, we’re reading your posts, but your explanation isn’t satisfying regarding why Japan would be less imperialistic than OTL just because of this marriage.

Just because they lack ties to the European fascists doesn’t mean that’s gonna stop the other factors in the nation or their ambitions to go and gobble up land. They’ll still go after China and while they won’t be allied with Nazi Germany, I can see Japan still targeted European colonial possessions during WW2.

Hence why I do see a fair bit of stuff still going in that direction, though it being two sepwrate conflicts means I don’t see the US bringing in the Soviets for help.

This could mean the US becomes more invested in China and Korea when the war with Japan ends. Japan would be in a bit of a tougher spot.
 
Ok and as I said before, Kodoha was not the only expansionist group. In fact Kodoha and Toseiha were more loose groupings. I feel like you are also glossing over the fact that Kodoha lost IOTL. "Sending away" the Kodoha officers would not really make them a non-issue, after all they were "sent away" to Korea and China and that didn't really help.
I never said they weren't I explicitly outline the right wing is still the dominant faction in military affairs, just that they haven't been supercharged thanks to the Manchuria incident, several of years of mass conquest and a coup further eroding the civilian government and their rivals. Being sent to Manchuria where they were effectively in charge and able to start and end wars on their own terms is rather different to being on the other side of the world with no means of getting reinforcements from the homeland and very much not in charge.
Ehhh low/middle ranked people? Kodoha afaik was not restricted to low officers, though I could be wrong. Also, the trend of starting wars against government wishes started earlier, with the invasion of Taiwan. Japan's civilian government was right wing to begin with, which put in place the education system that directly led to worsening nationalism (at least, IMO)
The people who orchestrated the Manchuria campaign were like three Colonels, a Lieutenant Colonel, a Major, and one 1st Lieutenant doing that whole "The lower rank overthrows the top brass" thing. Also I wasn't saying this was a new trend, just that Manchuria led to that kind of behavior going completely beyond any semblance of control compared to what it had been before. And I already addressed the right wing thing.
I mean...were they drunk on success in OTL? They were losing in China and distracted from it by doing other wars anyways. Anyways, I could see a right wing civ government timeline, but I think they'd still be ruthless. Uncontested power leads you to the same thing that happened OTL: Toseiha wins the 30s struggle, then you get the parties "uniting" into the imperial aid association. With no opposition, it's not really a civilian government anymore and the nationalism with snowball again, as OTL.
That's how it was always summarized in a lot of analysis I'd read, they had managed to conquer vast expanses of land relatively quickly, managed to defeat European armies anytime they fought them, and had shifted from "Too scared to fight America" to "We can win if we hit them hard enough" so arrogance seems very much to have been a part of it. As I said, this feels too deterministic to me, and like one is reading way to much positivity about them into my words which isn't there, its still an imperialistic empire, it still sucks, its just less out of control and more focused.
Like, we’re reading your posts, but your explanation isn’t satisfying regarding why Japan would be less imperialistic than OTL just because of this marriage.

Just because they lack ties to the European fascists doesn’t mean that’s gonna stop the other factors in the nation or their ambitions to go and gobble up land. They’ll still go after China and while they won’t be allied with Nazi Germany, I can see Japan still targeted European colonial possessions during WW2.
I never said less imperialistic, I said they were currently less prone to blatant kitten strangling evil because several key events that led to that degree of out of control radicalization haven't happened, so the process would be much slower.

I straight up said they planned to focus on Manchuria, China & Mongolia ETC, just later, once they finish their Sothern campaigns and re-established contact with Ethiopia and take back their citizens. Where's this idea they wouldn't be targeting European colonial possessions coming from, that was explicitly the plan I outlined. Stuff like that is why I felt the posts weren't being read.
 
I never said less imperialistic, I said they were currently less prone to blatant kitten strangling evil because several key events that led to that degree of out of control radicalization haven't happened, so the process would be much slower.

I straight up said they planned to focus on Manchuria, China & Mongolia ETC, just later, once they finish their Sothern campaigns and re-established contact with Ethiopia and take back their citizens. Where's this idea they wouldn't be targeting European colonial possessions coming from, that was explicitly the plan I outlined. Stuff like that is why I felt the posts weren't being read.
The problem is how were said events averted just from a marriage and if those changes would've been sufficient in the first place.
Meanwhile, I don't think it would be taking that long for Japan to help out with Ethiopia. And the way you were phrasing it makes it sound like they wouldn't be at war with the US at all. You just pushed back the Pacific theater by several months, but not butterflied it away.

You should probably actually give some dates to help keep track.
 
The problem is how were said events averted just from a marriage and if those changes would've been sufficient in the first place.

Meanwhile, I don't think it would be taking that long for Japan to help out with Ethiopia. And the way you were phrasing it makes it sound like they wouldn't be at war with the US at all. You just pushed back the Pacific theater by several months, but not butterflied it away.

You should probably actually give some dates to help keep track.
I mean, I've outlined the thought process behind why the marriage, mostly as an accidental knock on effect, caused these changes but keep in mind that was just my personal speculation this isn't a singular story so much as it was an open question. I just started outlining my own version for fun.

That's a fair take, I left it kind of open as to when all this would be happening post 1933 because I myself was unsure. As it is, I am still unsure if they would go to war with the US under these circumstances, and if anything I pushed the Pacific Theater forward didn't I?

That's fair.
 
I agree with you author that a Japanese-US war is quite deterministic, same for a raving mad/ruthless Japanese Empire like OTL when in this TL the events, concerns and priorities are extremely different to their OTL counterpart.

The Manchurian bombing incident being ushered under the carpet by the national crisis of 20k-200k Japanese civilians remaining stuck and possibly bombed by an Italian-Ethiopian war seems fair.

I am not sure about the German response, the attitude of the average German and even higher ranking one regarding the Italians was of disinterest and distrust, in addition to the German view of being superior to the Italians. Plus, Italy at this point in time was still in the English/French spehere with their plan on containing Germany (1934-1936?)
 
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