WI:The Virgina Colony is Abandoned by 1610

[Phaeton]

By 1610 the general consensus amongst the English colonists at Jamestown was that the colony of Virginia ought to be abandoned; they were low on supplies, suffering harrasment from natives and had failed to find a profitable staple crop.

The decision to abandon the colony was reversed thanks to the fortuitous arrival of a supply ship (which could clearly have been delayed by any number of factors), if it had called in even a few weeks later the colony would have already been abandoned.

WI it had been?

In the short term the Spanish would move into the Chesapeake to block other rivals from establishing a presence there, the Dutch and French still establish their settlements as in OTL but the Puritan colonisation of New England (which was basically an offshoot of Virginia) won't occur as mainland colonies in North America come to seem deeply unattractivce in England for at least a generation.

Effects on Europe are probably fairly limited down to 1700 at least, but thereafter significant divergences would appear.

How might the settlement of North America proceed in TTL?

 

[Matthew Craw]

A Spanish presence established after 1610 might not prove any more durable than that of 1571, which would leave basically the whole North American coast from Florida on up vacant.

The Dutch could end up with everything from the Chesapeake to the Connecticut river, but are unlikely to generate enough immigrants to develop it before german emigration begins in earnest in the eighteenth century. The question is, will someone else try to move in before then?

The French made little attempt to seriously develop a presence in North America until Colbert took over the administartion of new France in the 1660s, I can see them attacking the Dutch during one of their wars, but how successfully?


In time, I'd expect a colonisation stream to begin to flow out of Britain's Carribean colonies, as the sugar revolution began to drive out white settlers there. This would lead to the establishment of Carolina analogues in the deep South.

 

[David S Poepoe]

I believe there was a difference between those that settled in the Virginia area versus the Puritans that settled in New England. Those that fled for religious freedom will still flee since they really don't have any other choice. They will be the ones willing to risk everything.

I don't see the settlement of the New England area being disrupted, tho its likely that New Spain could eventually extend up to OTL Carolinas.

 

[Yossarian]

I would say the brits would have new england, the dutch would have from maryland up to new york (new amsterdam), and spain would have everything south of that.

 

[Matthew Craw]

I don't see the settlement of the New England area being disrupted, tho its likely that New Spain could eventually extend up to OTL Carolinas.

Actually, deespite the distinctive nature of the emigrants involved teh new England colonies were, in the early stages, a direct outgrowth of the Virginia Company's efforts, designed to suplement and cash in on the latter's success.

I doubt thst New Spain by this point has the surplus expansionist drive to push into the Carolinas, and british settlement in that region originated more in Barbados than in Virginia, and so should be unaffected.

 

[raharris1973]

Interesting potential here

"The Dutch could end up with everything from the Chesapeake to the Connecticut river, but are unlikely to generate enough immigrants to develop it before german emigration begins in earnest in the eighteenth century. The question is, will someone else try to move in before then?"

So, the implication is if the Dutch can hold out against the French (and they might, given the slow pace of French expansion), eventually German settlement will increase and maybe will result in political changes. That would be way cool if a German-speaking mid-Atlantic republic could be set up there. This area was the colonial breadbasket. After the the turn of the 19th century, if it continues to attract increasingly available German migrants, it will probably build up a head of steam and start the process of moving into the Ohio valley. France would obviously be able to provide great power backing but population dynamics will favor German expansion. If the German speaking republic eventually expands to include the Ohio Valley up to the Mississippi and Great Lakes, it will be occupying some very valuable territory. If, in a manner completely different from OTL, Germany ends up fighting a coalition of Atlantic nations, this North American republic's decision to not fight Germany or to support Germany could be very helpful to the Vaterland. This type of "Hansa on the Delaware" republic could also have some influence on the evolution of political thought in the German continental states themselves.

 

[Evil_evol]

Dude, that's great stuff and it makes sense. Someone should really develop that scenario further. The course of the 19th century would be seriously altered, and what a great AH scenario it would be.

 

[raharris1973]

More Hansa on the Delaware -

AKA - the New Jersey expansion

The profile of the stereotypical German settler in the 18th century was the relatively meek sort, really good at farming and babymaking though.

To get some more of the "oomph" needed for expansion into the Ohio Valley, perhaps Scots-Irish might still be interested in coming. After a few generations, they'll speak mostly the Mid-Atlantic dialect of German instead of Scots or English. If the German-state fails to get that sort of immigrant, maybe some rough wars will toughen them up or cause them to seek Swiss or Prussian military trainers.

By the way, somebody mentioned Barbados as the source of English migration to the Carolinas. What were the english there doing for a living before the sugar boom drove them out anyway?